The ideas that I trade by:

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MightyOne
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Mon May 30, 2016 4:06 am

Sacrophage wrote:Updated chart since the open - I got in as desired, but have not added to the position, as there have been no decent-sized pullbacks. In these one-directional markets, do you guys just add anyway and trail your stop accordingly? We are up 90 pts from my entry - I should be up a ton, but am not even up 1%. New plan is to add at the bottom of the cone that is about to begin forming.


When you increase your position size it creates a new position from your last entry (you gain/lose at a new rate, so many dollars per line)

If you are up 3 TWENTY-FOURS (1.388/pip) and you increase your size to SIXTEENS ($2.083/pip, +.695) then you are up 3 SIXTEENS; if price falls back 3 lines then you are about even.

$10,000, 3 lines = 1%:
(3 x 24)1.388 = $99.93
(3 x 16)2.083 = $99.98
It will never be exact.

Focus on taking a few lines here and there:
90 / 24 = 3.75 lines
90 / 16 = 5.62 lines
90 / 12 = 7.50 lines
3 + 4 + 5 = 12 lines, 12 lines is +0000 per year.

Don't trouble yourself to make a killing in one trade.
.92% compounded daily is +0 per year (2.76 lines)
1.85% compounded daily is +00 per year (5.6 lines)
2.78% compounded daily is +000 per year (8.34 lines)
3.73% compounded daily is +0000 per year (11.19 lines)
There is not enough money in the world to outperform a person who is consistently
reaching daily goals.

Do everything in your power to be consistent while eliminating large losses and you will prevail.

If you net anywhere near 1% per day then you are doing better than nearly everyone out there.

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Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Mon May 30, 2016 4:34 am

Updated again - 2 more entries and just exited on the spike up
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Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Mon May 30, 2016 4:44 am

MightyOne wrote: When you increase your position size it creates a new position from your last entry (you gain/lose at a new rate, so many dollars per line)

If you are up 3 TWENTY-FOURS (1.388/pip) and you increase your size to SIXTEENS ($2.083/pip, +.695) then you are up 3 SIXTEENS; if price falls back 3 lines then you are about even.

$10,000, 3 lines = 1%:
(3 x 24)1.388 = $99.93
(3 x 16)2.083 = $99.98
It will never be exact.

Focus on taking a few lines here and there:
90 / 24 = 3.75 lines
90 / 16 = 5.62 lines
90 / 12 = 7.50 lines
3 + 4 + 5 = 12 lines, 12 lines is +0000 per year.

Don't trouble yourself to make a killing in one trade.
.92% compounded daily is +0 per year (2.76 lines)
1.85% compounded daily is +00 per year (5.6 lines)
2.78% compounded daily is +000 per year (8.34 lines)
3.73% compounded daily is +0000 per year (11.19 lines)
There is not enough money in the world to outperform a person who is consistently
reaching daily goals.

Do everything in your power to be consistent while eliminating large losses and you will prevail.

If you net anywhere near 1% per day then you are doing better than nearly everyone out there.


Thanks Mighty, yes, I understand the math. What I am wondering is whether I am doing things the most efficient way or not - since entries/adds are subjective, there is no way for me to backtest for expected return.

So, in this example, should I have been forcing adds? Yes, I could take a loss, but I could also take a hugely outsized profit. Should I always be going for that big win? It's easier to add when the waves are deeper and the move is slower, but I believe those are also the lower probability moves for generating momentum and big gains. What say you?

**I should restate the caveat that I'm asking for the purpose of learning the most efficient way to manually trade - you have already answered above for someone looking to make a living

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Jalarupa
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Practical Cone Scaling

Postby Jalarupa » Mon May 30, 2016 7:25 am

So seeing as the conversation has shifted towards scaling... I'll show a practical example of a trade that I am currently in...

Image

First trade was 4 Macro's at 1.5% Risk targeting 7 Macro's (or the cone extreme)

Image

Next trade first scale (double) at 32 pips or 2 Macro's in... which places average at 1 macro or 16 pips... stop becomes 32 pips from average or half of initial space

Image

Now for the final double (4 x initial position) - I feel like I should have done this sooner, as to keep my Stops higher... I also recall MO doing the final add rather soon... This one is the crucial one as the stop is now only 1 macro away from the average price... Hence why I was thinking if we have some distance between the 2nd and 3rd trades then price still has some breathing room... I could also just scalp the 3rd position 2 macro's and leave the initial 2 positions on as a way to profit from price falling further in the weekly sense and possibly building a long term position...
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Braathen
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Braathen » Mon May 30, 2016 7:35 am

You and Alias are the only reasons that I am even still talking to myself on these threads :lol:

If you two go then I go...and Alias already has his foot out the door it seems. :shock:

EDIT: Jala, dc, etc, didn't forget you guys but you don't post very often. :wink:


Yeah so i really dont know what to post tbh.. im not great with "big words" or financial talk.. i do like "gobbledygook" as some are calling it :P
You want to discuss weightlifting? Ill talk on that subject until pigs fly but this is not really the place for that.
I read EVERYTHING posted on this forum.. most of it i could do without but i just love this place from the bottom of my heart and im just sitting here
all day anyway :P

I could share my trades but i dont feel that is going to help anyone.. others doing this never helped me. The ideas shared on this forum did however
help me. So in conclusion i will post more often.. if it will help anyone or even be remotly interresting.. i dont know :D but lets do it anyway!

Cones and PnF is what im doing at the moment.. i really really love angles and doing the PnF keeps me engaged.
Confucius quote: I hear and i forget, i see and i remember, i do and i understand!

Image
Image
"Trading is the ability to see & to plan & to act; it is not crystal balls, precision entries, and ego stroking."
MO-

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Jalarupa
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Mon May 30, 2016 7:42 am

Braathen wrote:if it will help anyone or even be remotly interresting.. i dont know :D but lets do it anyway!

Cones and PnF is what im doing at the moment.. i really really love angles and doing the PnF keeps me engaged.
Confucius quote: I hear and i forget, i see and i remember, i do and i understand!


Dude, I learn so much from you and your charts its scary! So glad you back on board... :)
Feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line!
Reaching out to embrace the random!
Reaching out to embrace whatever may come!

Trade management by <<FX SYNERGY>>
<<Tickmill Trading>>

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Braathen
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Braathen » Mon May 30, 2016 8:16 am

Never jumped ship my friend.. was just down peeling patatoes and scrubbing the hull :D

So you said your in the trade with only 1 macro to your stop loss? B/E? take profit?
I like to enter, double fast if price is going my way.. keeping my 00 behind a large TF extreme.. then when price is moving fast/breaking out i scalp
for some lines.
If im at let say 8's i will scalp for lets say 3 maybe 4 lines then scale back out to something that keeps my position higher then a 2+ day extreme then repeat this if price picks up speed again we could do 4's for 5-6 lines then scale back out. I dont like trading at PIP$ max all the time as i get punched in the face too often doing this.

But i think this is what u suggested in the last lines of your post?
"Trading is the ability to see & to plan & to act; it is not crystal balls, precision entries, and ego stroking."
MO-

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Jalarupa
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Mon May 30, 2016 8:27 am

Braathen wrote:Never jumped ship my friend.. was just down peeling patatoes and scrubbing the hull :D

So you said your in the trade with only 1 macro to your stop loss? B/E? take profit?
I like to enter, double fast if price is going my way.. keeping my 00 behind a large TF extreme.. then when price is moving fast/breaking out i scalp
for some lines.
If im at let say 8's i will scalp for lets say 3 maybe 4 lines then scale back out to something that keeps my position higher then a 2+ day extreme then repeat this if price picks up speed again we could do 4's for 5-6 lines then scale back out. I dont like trading at PIP$ max all the time as i get punched in the face too often doing this.

But i think this is what u suggested in the last lines of your post?


I'm currently 1 macro from B/E to my stop at 1.5% due to doubling twice...

It seems like we have the same idea, but I should really look at getting my orders out quicker... best done by dropping down to 8's as noted above... (especially for low beta or intraday trades)

Thanks for the clarity ;)
Feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line!
Reaching out to embrace the random!
Reaching out to embrace whatever may come!

Trade management by <<FX SYNERGY>>
<<Tickmill Trading>>

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby newark18 » Mon May 30, 2016 2:21 pm

Not that I matter but I still read this thread!
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Mon May 30, 2016 3:08 pm

So, if we break it down to 2 types of scaling:
1. Pre-determined scale levels & quantities or other type of rule-based scaling
2. Subjective scale levels & quantities

Type 1 takes a trade idea and lets it run to its natural conclusion. R:R on this trade is better with scaling than without, but you will not know ahead of time if your trailed SL will be ahead of or behind the S/R being built by price action after the first entry.

Type 2 allows for the "perfect" trade, but since the trader is deciding where and how to use the equity built by the first position, I see it simply as a separate trade. This seems to make the most sense when looking at weekly and monthly charts, hunting for 1000 points, and able to make the add decisions on the 4-hour or daily.

For my goal, 100% by July 1, I will be looking at shorter-term charts and type 1 scaling. The power of the MM is betting on the inevitable streak of points. The streak value may be set as desired, and the ramp schedule may utilize up to 100% of tallied profits + original risk. Together, they make up the waypoint. Given that Mighty has decreased the waypoint targets since the start of the thread, I will cap each waypoint at 20%.

I will try to categorize trades by 1) timeframe, 2) trend/counter-trend, 3) stop size, in order to get some stats on W:L, expected return, etc. Please advise any thoughts you experienced guys have - I am sure manual-trading gurus have an innate sense of these numbers that molds their decision-making. Of course, since entries are subjective, those numbers will vary from trader to trader, but expect they should fall into a range if we are all looking at similar tools (the ideas that Mighty trades by) for the entry.

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