The ideas that I trade by:

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Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Sun May 29, 2016 6:55 pm

Jalarupa wrote:Efficient Market Hypnosis...

My experience in markets show me that markets are not efficient... This inefficiency is what value investors exploit everyday of their lives... Forex is just as inefficient... You telling me that a currency can drift away from fair value indefinitely?


We are probably talking about different things - I am saying that there can be no static recipe. Fixed rules and parameters that consistently work do not exist. All fixed sets of rules and parameters are profitable sometimes, and all fixed sets are unprofitable over the longer term. Just trying to save time if you were going to backtest your observation about the cones.

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Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Sun May 29, 2016 7:00 pm

MightyOne wrote: You and Alias are the only reasons that I am even still talking to myself on these threads :lol:

If you two go then I go...and Alias already has his foot out the door it seems. :shock:

EDIT: Jala, dc, etc, didn't forget you guys but you don't post very often. :wink:


Hey I just got here! Old guys plz don't leave!

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Jalarupa
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Sun May 29, 2016 7:01 pm

MightyOne wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:
I could instantly bring you 2000 more viewers in one short diatribe to the wrong person.

All I'd have to do is show the 2008 parallels of Orderblocks, breakers, and MM levels of entry/exits.
Adding a few pics dated 08/09 would do the trick.

I have resisted the temptation.

Your choice.


You and Alias are the only reasons that I am even still talking to myself on these threads :lol:

If you two go then I go...and Alias already has his foot out the door it seems. :shock:

EDIT: Jala, dc, etc, didn't forget you guys but you don't post very often. :wink:


Well MO,
I'm definitely going to start posting again...

Please don't ever discount what you do here everyday for us locals... If you go, I'll go all Liam Neeson on you and find you!

These new upstarts making noise and taking smack don't have our respect... That gets earned through time...

You most certainly have more than just the respect of the locals, you have our never ending gratitude, and the very real realization that without you, we would probably be trading some costly system that ends up being nothing more than a coin flip...

Looking forward to the new thread... This one is getting a little crowded...

Forex Masterclass in session BOOM!
Feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line.
Reaching out to embrace the random.
Reaching out to embrace whatever may come.

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

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Jalarupa
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Sun May 29, 2016 7:06 pm

Sacrophage wrote:
Jalarupa wrote:Efficient Market Hypnosis...

My experience in markets show me that markets are not efficient... This inefficiency is what value investors exploit everyday of their lives... Forex is just as inefficient... You telling me that a currency can drift away from fair value indefinitely?


We are probably talking about different things - I am saying that there can be no static recipe. Fixed rules and parameters that consistently work do not exist. All fixed sets of rules and parameters are profitable sometimes, and all fixed sets are unprofitable over the longer term. Just trying to save time if you were going to backtest your observation about the cones.


I agree... But I was merely stating an observation that I have been grinding to for the past few months...

This observation is nothing more than the confluence of the cone (inverse) to the BDP, 75% retrace anomaly of old, ZLine, FAT CAT.... Etc....

I trade confluence based on multiple boxes being ticked for the right reasons...
Feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line.
Reaching out to embrace the random.
Reaching out to embrace whatever may come.

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Sun May 29, 2016 7:17 pm

Jalarupa wrote:
Sacrophage wrote:
Jalarupa wrote:Efficient Market Hypnosis...

My experience in markets show me that markets are not efficient... This inefficiency is what value investors exploit everyday of their lives... Forex is just as inefficient... You telling me that a currency can drift away from fair value indefinitely?


We are probably talking about different things - I am saying that there can be no static recipe. Fixed rules and parameters that consistently work do not exist. All fixed sets of rules and parameters are profitable sometimes, and all fixed sets are unprofitable over the longer term. Just trying to save time if you were going to backtest your observation about the cones.


I agree... But I was merely stating an observation that I have been grinding to for the past few months...

This observation is nothing more than the confluence of the cone (inverse) to the BDP, 75% retrace anomaly of old, ZLine, FAT CAT.... Etc....

I trade confluence based on multiple boxes being ticked for the right reasons...


OK, cool, just a misunderstanding and was trying to be helpful. I am here to learn about the checklist and rationale... I don't know much about manual trading but I have 10 yrs writing EA's so thought I would share things I have found. Embarrassing similarity - I wrote a genetic algo that selects the learning period for another genetic algo to decide certain parameters for needlessly complex trades. The purpose - to randomize the entry while retaining statistical edge. Translation to manual trading speak - one horizontal line placed on the chart :lol:

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Sun May 29, 2016 11:57 pm

Updated chart since the open - I got in as desired, but have not added to the position, as there have been no decent-sized pullbacks. In these one-directional markets, do you guys just add anyway and trail your stop accordingly? We are up 90 pts from my entry - I should be up a ton, but am not even up 1%. New plan is to add at the bottom of the cone that is about to begin forming.
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MightyOne
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Mon May 30, 2016 4:06 am

Sacrophage wrote:Updated chart since the open - I got in as desired, but have not added to the position, as there have been no decent-sized pullbacks. In these one-directional markets, do you guys just add anyway and trail your stop accordingly? We are up 90 pts from my entry - I should be up a ton, but am not even up 1%. New plan is to add at the bottom of the cone that is about to begin forming.


When you increase your position size it creates a new position from your last entry (you gain/lose at a new rate, so many dollars per line)

If you are up 3 TWENTY-FOURS (1.388/pip) and you increase your size to SIXTEENS ($2.083/pip, +.695) then you are up 3 SIXTEENS; if price falls back 3 lines then you are about even.

$10,000, 3 lines = 1%:
(3 x 24)1.388 = $99.93
(3 x 16)2.083 = $99.98
It will never be exact.

Focus on taking a few lines here and there:
90 / 24 = 3.75 lines
90 / 16 = 5.62 lines
90 / 12 = 7.50 lines
3 + 4 + 5 = 12 lines, 12 lines is +0000 per year.

Don't trouble yourself to make a killing in one trade.
.92% compounded daily is +0 per year (2.76 lines)
1.85% compounded daily is +00 per year (5.6 lines)
2.78% compounded daily is +000 per year (8.34 lines)
3.73% compounded daily is +0000 per year (11.19 lines)
There is not enough money in the world to outperform a person who is consistently
reaching daily goals.

Do everything in your power to be consistent while eliminating large losses and you will prevail.

If you net anywhere near 1% per day then you are doing better than nearly everyone out there.

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Mon May 30, 2016 4:34 am

Updated again - 2 more entries and just exited on the spike up
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Sacrophage
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Sacrophage » Mon May 30, 2016 4:44 am

MightyOne wrote: When you increase your position size it creates a new position from your last entry (you gain/lose at a new rate, so many dollars per line)

If you are up 3 TWENTY-FOURS (1.388/pip) and you increase your size to SIXTEENS ($2.083/pip, +.695) then you are up 3 SIXTEENS; if price falls back 3 lines then you are about even.

$10,000, 3 lines = 1%:
(3 x 24)1.388 = $99.93
(3 x 16)2.083 = $99.98
It will never be exact.

Focus on taking a few lines here and there:
90 / 24 = 3.75 lines
90 / 16 = 5.62 lines
90 / 12 = 7.50 lines
3 + 4 + 5 = 12 lines, 12 lines is +0000 per year.

Don't trouble yourself to make a killing in one trade.
.92% compounded daily is +0 per year (2.76 lines)
1.85% compounded daily is +00 per year (5.6 lines)
2.78% compounded daily is +000 per year (8.34 lines)
3.73% compounded daily is +0000 per year (11.19 lines)
There is not enough money in the world to outperform a person who is consistently
reaching daily goals.

Do everything in your power to be consistent while eliminating large losses and you will prevail.

If you net anywhere near 1% per day then you are doing better than nearly everyone out there.


Thanks Mighty, yes, I understand the math. What I am wondering is whether I am doing things the most efficient way or not - since entries/adds are subjective, there is no way for me to backtest for expected return.

So, in this example, should I have been forcing adds? Yes, I could take a loss, but I could also take a hugely outsized profit. Should I always be going for that big win? It's easier to add when the waves are deeper and the move is slower, but I believe those are also the lower probability moves for generating momentum and big gains. What say you?

**I should restate the caveat that I'm asking for the purpose of learning the most efficient way to manually trade - you have already answered above for someone looking to make a living

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Jalarupa
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Practical Cone Scaling

Postby Jalarupa » Mon May 30, 2016 7:25 am

So seeing as the conversation has shifted towards scaling... I'll show a practical example of a trade that I am currently in...

Image

First trade was 4 Macro's at 1.5% Risk targeting 7 Macro's (or the cone extreme)

Image

Next trade first scale (double) at 32 pips or 2 Macro's in... which places average at 1 macro or 16 pips... stop becomes 32 pips from average or half of initial space

Image

Now for the final double (4 x initial position) - I feel like I should have done this sooner, as to keep my Stops higher... I also recall MO doing the final add rather soon... This one is the crucial one as the stop is now only 1 macro away from the average price... Hence why I was thinking if we have some distance between the 2nd and 3rd trades then price still has some breathing room... I could also just scalp the 3rd position 2 macro's and leave the initial 2 positions on as a way to profit from price falling further in the weekly sense and possibly building a long term position...
Feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line.
Reaching out to embrace the random.
Reaching out to embrace whatever may come.

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

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Thank you for your support.


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