2009.05.16 WHY 95% OF TRADERS FAIL - PART II

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Mon May 18, 2009 1:08 pm

Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby Fxtraveller » Mon May 18, 2009 1:35 pm

Why 95% of traders fail?


TheRumpledOne wrote:WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF...

...You were in charge of a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR hedge fund and you had $100 million in euros and the price of the Euro started to plummet?

...You were in charge of a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR hedge fund and you had $100 million in US dollars and the price of the Yen started to rocket?

...You just received payment of $50 MILLION SWISS FRANCS and this price of the USDCHF started to rise (like it did on Friday)?

...You are a Middle Eastern Oil Shiek and you just received payment of $1 BILLION British Pound and the GBPUSD is at an ALL TIME HIGH?

These are the people who move price.

DOES THAT MAKE IT ANY EASIER FOR YOU TO SEE?



erm.... well, you just get rid of the money thats losing value ASAP. if price moves against, best to get out (according to one's plan :) ) and wait for another opportunity. no need to wait (or HOPE) for the price to come back any time soon.

go where price goes, join the strongest, dont spit against the wind.

Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Mon May 18, 2009 2:06 pm

Level II is NOT always the TRUTH!

Ever hear of hidden orders? Or "ice-berg" orders? Or Auto-refresh?

---------------------------

I've got NO idea, but should a scalper care? Is "In- Out, hit'n'run technique" affected by them?

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Postby koolbreeze » Mon May 18, 2009 6:02 pm

THE REASON 95% OF FOREX TRADERS LOSE IS BECAUSE THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS.

Doesn't anyone SEE IT, yet?

________

I don't trade forex TRO but my guess to your question would be:

LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS = looking at a curency pair independent of the price action of all the other curency pairs.

Trading with one eye = concentrating on the indicators and price action of a given curency pair while ignoring the movement between the other curency pairs as a whole.

Am I in the ball park

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Postby MightyOne » Mon May 18, 2009 6:35 pm

There is nothing wrong with scalping, but if you do not wish to be under the gun of the need for a high win ratio then you should commit to a direction 20% of the time.

To answer your question:

Scalpers are affected by everyone who uses limit orders.

If speed increases and everyone is paying up to enter then you have nothing to worry about.

If you use a limit order where your stop would be then you are de facto a position trader.

Scalping speed is roughly when price: makes a new high or low, retraces 7 pips, but less than 16 pips and then makes a new high.

You would then aim to enter 7 pips from the high with a 10 pip stop loss order.
You would then exit when you see 5+ pips.

When the market is making larger retracements than 16 pips that is when you want to start trading reversals (which may turn into trends).

Market speed is based on the size of the correction that returns to make new highs or lows.

A LARGER CORRECTION THAT DOES NOT RETURN TO NEW HIGHS OR LOWS IS NOT A CORRECTION.

This is the single most important concept to understand :shock:
a concept that is a large piece of my crystal ball.



Fxtraveller wrote:Level II is NOT always the TRUTH!

Ever hear of hidden orders? Or "ice-berg" orders? Or Auto-refresh?

---------------------------

I've got NO idea, but should a scalper care? Is "In- Out, hit'n'run technique" affected by them?

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JESGPY
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Postby JESGPY » Mon May 18, 2009 7:07 pm

Hi MightyOne.

Can you show a chart when what you described above occurs.

THANX

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 18, 2009 8:25 pm

koolbreeze wrote:THE REASON 95% OF FOREX TRADERS LOSE IS BECAUSE THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS.

Doesn't anyone SEE IT, yet?

________

I don't trade forex TRO but my guess to your question would be:

LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS = looking at a curency pair independent of the price action of all the other curency pairs.

Trading with one eye = concentrating on the indicators and price action of a given curency pair while ignoring the movement between the other curency pairs as a whole.

Am I in the ball park


YES.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Mon May 18, 2009 10:18 pm

LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS = looking at a curency pair independent of the price action of all the other curency pairs.

Trading with one eye = concentrating on the indicators and price action of a given curency pair while ignoring the movement between the other curency pairs as a whole.

---------
wait, so........ are u actually saying that to trade GBP/JPY you should also look at GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, etc..... ?
isnt that comparing apples to oranges? and what difference does it make watching multiple currency pairs if you scalp? in-out, 10 seconds, 5 pips?
regads.
FxT.

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Mon May 18, 2009 11:31 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:
koolbreeze wrote:THE REASON 95% OF FOREX TRADERS LOSE IS BECAUSE THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS.

Doesn't anyone SEE IT, yet?

________

I don't trade forex TRO but my guess to your question would be:

LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS = looking at a curency pair independent of the price action of all the other curency pairs.

Trading with one eye = concentrating on the indicators and price action of a given curency pair while ignoring the movement between the other curency pairs as a whole.

Am I in the ball park


YES.


I still don't see it.
They all seem to move/reverse/trend ect. at the same time. When the one I'm trading starts to reverse so do the others. How does that help me?
I can trade e/j and never look at g/u and e/u and g/j ect. But I know what they are all doing because of what the one I'm trading is doing.
How does that help.
Please TELL.
I want to see.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Mon May 18, 2009 11:32 pm

Dr. S said this today.
USD/YEN is also expected to make a rise alternate with EURO and GBP as contrarian move.

Does that mean normally the u/j would be falling instead of rising with the others above?
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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