2009.05.16 WHY 95% OF TRADERS FAIL - PART II

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sun May 17, 2009 8:34 pm

Volume drives price - just like the stock market - except we dont have voume in forex - just like the article says. But you can abstract it to ATR

Look at price current moves in relation to past moves and volume - watch price and volume surge and collapse

The only difference between this and the stock market is that the short in the stock market are always outnumbered by the longs - in FX it is probably not the case

Line it up with a semaphor and watch


look for the strengthe of the move
prochargedmopar wrote:After reading the article:
#1 Where is that histogram TRO made for ATR? LOL (no more indicators please)
#2 Don't over-trade, WAIT.
#3 Just as in jui-jitsu. It is our natural instinct that we must battle against, not our opponent. You would not believe how much our natural reactions are used against us in that fighting game unless you've actually gotten out on the mat yourself and experienced it. A measly purple belt(about 3 yrs exp.) can take out any civilian with ease. I've thrashed guys like a dishrag that were twice my size (over 300#)and much much stronger that were noobs in class. It's actually funny BUT they weren't smiling.
Kinda like me now with the FOREX market. I ain't smilin........but I'm having fun.
#4 pivot points as explained here look kinda like the nobrainertrades.com support and resistance trades. Pinbars maybe? Definitive stops a plus!!!

What did you get out of it Razor?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sun May 17, 2009 8:57 pm

Also wait till you see a spike in ATR until you start thinking what the trend is. If you have missed the ATR spike and the follow up move - be it a break lower or higher - wait until the the ATR spike and price confermation before making a serious commitment

Just more of my thoughts

razorboy wrote:Volume drives price - just like the stock market - except we dont have voume in forex - just like the article says. But you can abstract it to ATR

Look at price current moves in relation to past moves and volume - watch price and volume surge and collapse

The only difference between this and the stock market is that the short in the stock market are always outnumbered by the longs - in FX it is probably not the case

Line it up with a semaphor and watch


look for the strengthe of the move
prochargedmopar wrote:After reading the article:
#1 Where is that histogram TRO made for ATR? LOL (no more indicators please)
#2 Don't over-trade, WAIT.
#3 Just as in jui-jitsu. It is our natural instinct that we must battle against, not our opponent. You would not believe how much our natural reactions are used against us in that fighting game unless you've actually gotten out on the mat yourself and experienced it. A measly purple belt(about 3 yrs exp.) can take out any civilian with ease. I've thrashed guys like a dishrag that were twice my size (over 300#)and much much stronger that were noobs in class. It's actually funny BUT they weren't smiling.
Kinda like me now with the FOREX market. I ain't smilin........but I'm having fun.
#4 pivot points as explained here look kinda like the nobrainertrades.com support and resistance trades. Pinbars maybe? Definitive stops a plus!!!

What did you get out of it Razor?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5545
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:07 am
Reputation: 8
Location: Granbury, TX
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby prochargedmopar » Sun May 17, 2009 9:00 pm

I'll watch these today.
gbp/jpy
usd/jpy
chf/jpy

Trade eur/jpy
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun May 17, 2009 9:34 pm

Found this today:

Turning Losing Forex Trades into Winners: Proven Techniques to Reverse Your Losses (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)
by Gerald E. Greene

Reviews & Details

By kelly Price

Best Trading Indicator For Swing Trading

Here we will look at the best forex trading indicator for swing trading this is for trading into overbought / oversold areas within the major trend. Here we will look at how to do this, with the stochastic indicator and show you a simple powerful method for big profits.

Swing trading is easy to do, logical and easy to understand and can be very effective. The stochastic indicator combined with valid support and resistance gives you a robust simple strategy you can learn quickly than can be highly effective in making big forex profits so here it is.

An Introduction

George Lane developed the stochastic indicator which was based on the premise that in an up-trend, prices tend to close near their highs and of course in a down-trend the reverse occurs, prices tend to close near their lows.

This simple logic is the basis of the stochastic indicator but despite its simplicity it's a powerful tool.

The stochastic should our view be used in association with areas of support and resistance and be used to enter positions when price momentum wanes in an uptrend below resistance and strengthens in a down trend above resistance.

The Mathematics

If you are technically minded, the stochastic calculation is outlined below. If you are not don't worry, as most major chart services plot the stochastic and you can simply see the set ups visually - here it is:

The stochastic is plotted as two lines %K, a fast line and %D, a slow line.

The %K line is more sensitive than %D

The %D line is a moving average of %K.

The %D line then triggers the trading signals.

The lines are plotted on a scale of 1 to 100.

"Trigger" lines can be drawn on stochastic charts at the 80% (overbought) and 20% (oversold) levels. A signal is then generated when the stochastic lines cross.

The Stochastic can help you enter trading signals in a number of ways and here we have outlined the 3 major ways you can use it in a swing trading strategy.

As an Overbought Oversold

When the 20% and 80% trigger lines are crossed look to do the following in terms of initiating your trading signal. Take a long position and buy when the stochastic moves below 20% and then rises above this level. On the other hand take a short position and sell, when the stochastic rises above 80% and then comes back below this level.

Stochastic Crossovers Against the Trend

This is a highly reliable signal

You can buy when the %K line rises above the %D line and sell when the %K line falls below the %D line. The most reliable or high odds crossovers occur when the %K line intersects after the peak of the %D line.

Stochastic Divergences

Divergences between the stochastic and the underlying price trend warn that a potential price change is on the way and are a great leading indicator for your trading signals.

For example, if prices are making a series of new highs and trending upwards and the stochastic moves lower or crosses to the downside then price momentum and velocity is weakening and the reverse occurs of course in a bear market.

Why It Works

The reason it works and we consider it the best forex technical indicator for swing trading is based upon human psychology.

A long term price trend does not just go in a straight line - there are peaks and troughs along the way. Forex traders will push prices to far too quickly and prices then return back to fair value. It is these moves within long term trends, that swing traders want to catch - so by combining the stochastic with simple support and resistance is very effective.

If you are new to forex trading then swing trading with the stochastic gives you a simple method which works and the stochastic is the best forex technical indicator to use and while there are others, using the stochastic wisely, with support and resistance lines, can make big consistent profits.

Source: http://www.forextradingweekly.com

============================================

DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THIS??
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun May 17, 2009 9:35 pm

prochargedmopar wrote:I'll watch these today.
gbp/jpy
usd/jpy
chf/jpy

Trade eur/jpy


OPEN YOUR OTHER EYE!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun May 17, 2009 9:40 pm

razorboy wrote:Volume drives price - just like the stock market - except we dont have voume in forex - just like the article says. But you can abstract it to ATR

Look at price current moves in relation to past moves and volume - watch price and volume surge and collapse

The only difference between this and the stock market is that the short in the stock market are always outnumbered by the longs - in FX it is probably not the case

Line it up with a semaphor and watch


look for the strengthe of the move
prochargedmopar wrote:After reading the article:
#1 Where is that histogram TRO made for ATR? LOL (no more indicators please)
#2 Don't over-trade, WAIT.
#3 Just as in jui-jitsu. It is our natural instinct that we must battle against, not our opponent. You would not believe how much our natural reactions are used against us in that fighting game unless you've actually gotten out on the mat yourself and experienced it. A measly purple belt(about 3 yrs exp.) can take out any civilian with ease. I've thrashed guys like a dishrag that were twice my size (over 300#)and much much stronger that were noobs in class. It's actually funny BUT they weren't smiling.
Kinda like me now with the FOREX market. I ain't smilin........but I'm having fun.
#4 pivot points as explained here look kinda like the nobrainertrades.com support and resistance trades. Pinbars maybe? Definitive stops a plus!!!

What did you get out of it Razor?


After all this time, do you really believe that some LAGGING, SQUIGGLY LINE indicator is going to HELP YOU TRADE?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun May 17, 2009 9:48 pm

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF...

...You were in charge of a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR hedge fund and you had $100 million in euros and the price of the Euro started to plummet?

...You were in charge of a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR hedge fund and you had $100 million in US dollars and the price of the Yen started to rocket?

...You just received payment of $50 MILLION SWISS FRANCS and this price of the USDCHF started to rise (like it did on Friday)?

...You are a Middle Eastern Oil Shiek and you just received payment of $1 BILLION British Pound and the GBPUSD is at an ALL TIME HIGH?

These are the people who move price.

DOES THAT MAKE IT ANY EASIER FOR YOU TO SEE?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sun May 17, 2009 9:54 pm

Squiggle squiggle squiggle.........


TheRumpledOne wrote:Found this today:

Turning Losing Forex Trades into Winners: Proven Techniques to Reverse Your Losses (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)
by Gerald E. Greene

Reviews & Details

By kelly Price

Best Trading Indicator For Swing Trading

Here we will look at the best forex trading indicator for swing trading this is for trading into overbought / oversold areas within the major trend. Here we will look at how to do this, with the stochastic indicator and show you a simple powerful method for big profits.

Swing trading is easy to do, logical and easy to understand and can be very effective. The stochastic indicator combined with valid support and resistance gives you a robust simple strategy you can learn quickly than can be highly effective in making big forex profits so here it is.

An Introduction

George Lane developed the stochastic indicator which was based on the premise that in an up-trend, prices tend to close near their highs and of course in a down-trend the reverse occurs, prices tend to close near their lows.

This simple logic is the basis of the stochastic indicator but despite its simplicity it's a powerful tool.

The stochastic should our view be used in association with areas of support and resistance and be used to enter positions when price momentum wanes in an uptrend below resistance and strengthens in a down trend above resistance.

The Mathematics

If you are technically minded, the stochastic calculation is outlined below. If you are not don't worry, as most major chart services plot the stochastic and you can simply see the set ups visually - here it is:

The stochastic is plotted as two lines %K, a fast line and %D, a slow line.

The %K line is more sensitive than %D

The %D line is a moving average of %K.

The %D line then triggers the trading signals.

The lines are plotted on a scale of 1 to 100.

"Trigger" lines can be drawn on stochastic charts at the 80% (overbought) and 20% (oversold) levels. A signal is then generated when the stochastic lines cross.

The Stochastic can help you enter trading signals in a number of ways and here we have outlined the 3 major ways you can use it in a swing trading strategy.

As an Overbought Oversold

When the 20% and 80% trigger lines are crossed look to do the following in terms of initiating your trading signal. Take a long position and buy when the stochastic moves below 20% and then rises above this level. On the other hand take a short position and sell, when the stochastic rises above 80% and then comes back below this level.

Stochastic Crossovers Against the Trend

This is a highly reliable signal

You can buy when the %K line rises above the %D line and sell when the %K line falls below the %D line. The most reliable or high odds crossovers occur when the %K line intersects after the peak of the %D line.

Stochastic Divergences

Divergences between the stochastic and the underlying price trend warn that a potential price change is on the way and are a great leading indicator for your trading signals.

For example, if prices are making a series of new highs and trending upwards and the stochastic moves lower or crosses to the downside then price momentum and velocity is weakening and the reverse occurs of course in a bear market.

Why It Works

The reason it works and we consider it the best forex technical indicator for swing trading is based upon human psychology.

A long term price trend does not just go in a straight line - there are peaks and troughs along the way. Forex traders will push prices to far too quickly and prices then return back to fair value. It is these moves within long term trends, that swing traders want to catch - so by combining the stochastic with simple support and resistance is very effective.

If you are new to forex trading then swing trading with the stochastic gives you a simple method which works and the stochastic is the best forex technical indicator to use and while there are others, using the stochastic wisely, with support and resistance lines, can make big consistent profits.

Source: http://www.forextradingweekly.com

============================================

DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THIS??
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sun May 17, 2009 9:58 pm

no not at all - not using squiggles - just ATR histogram and price spikes

TheRumpledOne wrote:
razorboy wrote:Volume drives price - just like the stock market - except we dont have voume in forex - just like the article says. But you can abstract it to ATR

Look at price current moves in relation to past moves and volume - watch price and volume surge and collapse

The only difference between this and the stock market is that the short in the stock market are always outnumbered by the longs - in FX it is probably not the case

Line it up with a semaphor and watch


look for the strengthe of the move
prochargedmopar wrote:After reading the article:
#1 Where is that histogram TRO made for ATR? LOL (no more indicators please)
#2 Don't over-trade, WAIT.
#3 Just as in jui-jitsu. It is our natural instinct that we must battle against, not our opponent. You would not believe how much our natural reactions are used against us in that fighting game unless you've actually gotten out on the mat yourself and experienced it. A measly purple belt(about 3 yrs exp.) can take out any civilian with ease. I've thrashed guys like a dishrag that were twice my size (over 300#)and much much stronger that were noobs in class. It's actually funny BUT they weren't smiling.
Kinda like me now with the FOREX market. I ain't smilin........but I'm having fun.
#4 pivot points as explained here look kinda like the nobrainertrades.com support and resistance trades. Pinbars maybe? Definitive stops a plus!!!

What did you get out of it Razor?


After all this time, do you really believe that some LAGGING, SQUIGGLY LINE indicator is going to HELP YOU TRADE?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Galeforceten
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:28 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby Galeforceten » Mon May 18, 2009 12:21 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Found this today:

Turning Losing Forex Trades into Winners: Proven Techniques to Reverse Your Losses (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)


DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THIS??

--------------------------------------

But TRO, those are PROVEN techniques, they are just like the law of attraction and the law of gravity, those techniques are written in stone...

Come on, you don't think the writer would title a book with that title to sell books do you? No way man, I'm a 100% believer in the writer!

ROFL....

I "discovered" (as I'm sure many others on here have as well) the magic of stochastics taking money out of my account and depositing it into other people's accounts. I mean the indicator says it's oversold (bought) It HAS to turn around now right?

Vegas on the forex factory wrote about this same phenomenon a couple of years ago, using a roulette wheel as an example. Everyone always wants to bet against the trend, say 5 black numbers have come in, how many people will start betting red? The fact is, sometimes those streaks go on for a long time, long enough to take out most people's bankrolls. After everyone is broke betting that it will turn around, then... it does.

Love the topic, can't wait to hear more. I hope everyone figured out that I was kidding up there in the beginning.

GF10

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”