2009.05.16 WHY 95% OF TRADERS FAIL - PART II

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue May 19, 2009 12:23 am

Fxtraveller wrote:LOOKING AT THE WRONG THINGS = looking at a curency pair independent of the price action of all the other curency pairs.

Trading with one eye = concentrating on the indicators and price action of a given curency pair while ignoring the movement between the other curency pairs as a whole.

---------
wait, so........ are u actually saying that to trade GBP/JPY you should also look at GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, etc..... ?
isnt that comparing apples to oranges? and what difference does it make watching multiple currency pairs if you scalp? in-out, 10 seconds, 5 pips?
regads.
FxT.


NO. It is NOT.

If you are trading GBP/JPY short and the rest of the Yen pairs are dropping, what do you think is going to happen? And/Or the rest of the GBP pairs are rising?

Do you always get 5 pips in 10 seconds?

This is TRADING - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!

Best to SEE what IS happening around you.

Don't you look BOTH WAYS BEFORE YOU CROSS THE STREET?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby noone22 » Tue May 19, 2009 1:13 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:If you are trading GBP/JPY short and the rest of the Yen pairs are dropping, what do you think is going to happen? And/Or the rest of the GBP pairs are rising?


OK, this is a very good tip.

I know indices trading system, which is based on correlation of
movement of S&P, Nasdaq and Dow: if two of them start rising -
there is a big probability, that third one would start rising soon
as well.

But it only describes one scenario.
But what to do in my GBPJPY trade, when
USDJPY is falling, but EURJPY is rising, etc?

Moreover, what is more important -
price movement of your main pair
(GBPJPY in our example)
or price movements of other cross-related JPY and/or GBP pairs?
And what is the formula (if any) for their cross-behaviour?

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Postby MightyOne » Tue May 19, 2009 4:01 am

Charting 101:

Image

JESGPY wrote:Hi MightyOne.

Can you show a chart when what you described above occurs.

THANX

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Postby MightyOne » Tue May 19, 2009 4:08 am

Image

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue May 19, 2009 4:26 am

noone22 wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:If you are trading GBP/JPY short and the rest of the Yen pairs are dropping, what do you think is going to happen? And/Or the rest of the GBP pairs are rising?


OK, this is a very good tip.

I know indices trading system, which is based on correlation of
movement of S&P, Nasdaq and Dow: if two of them start rising -
there is a big probability, that third one would start rising soon
as well.

But it only describes one scenario.
But what to do in my GBPJPY trade, when
USDJPY is falling, but EURJPY is rising, etc?

Moreover, what is more important -
price movement of your main pair
(GBPJPY in our example)
or price movements of other cross-related JPY and/or GBP pairs?
And what is the formula (if any) for their cross-behaviour?


There is no formula. Just LOOK AND SEE!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue May 19, 2009 4:29 am

MightyOne:

DT = DOUBLE TOP? OR SOMETHING ELSE BECAUSE YOU PUT DT ON THE BOTTOM, TOO!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby noone22 » Tue May 19, 2009 5:16 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:There is no formula. Just LOOK AND SEE!


I'd like to see, but I don't know where to look in first place
and what to see - in second place.

Following initial KISS rule, one need to keep charts and
surrounding trading environment as simple as possible.

By looking at dozen of more charts picture
doesn't become clear, but instead - over-complicated.

Not even speaking about - we don't know, what you do know
and even looking at exactly the same set of info, as you have
in your disposal, we may jump to different conclusions.

Could you give complete list of tips - at least one by one,
or don't arouse by slogans.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Tue May 19, 2009 2:36 pm

TRO

I must say that until now your thoughts and ideas were (mostly) clear to me. Horizontal line (be it an S/ R, Psych, pivots) were crystal clear, and simple.
But:

You were the one saying that a horizontal line is all you NEED to be profitable (and thats true, I myself back your words by trading your TRO SR RR). So why bother with dozens squiggly indicators, own and modifying others?

You say you should look at various currency pairs, but you used to insist that one should pick ONE method on ONE currency pair to get used to it.

DO I SEE?
I SEE that when a price passes a horizontal line marking a
1)recent high/low
2) the trigger lines based on pivots
- it is likely to go far enough to take some profit.

To answer you question:
"Do you always get 5 pips in 10 seconds?"

No, but half of trades are 1 minute or less, some 30% : 1-4 minutes. and the rest up to 10 minutes, if price triggers an order and stalls.

"This is TRADING - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!! "
oh YES, how true. thanks to you repeating this OVER and OVER again I finally got the message and stopped system hopping :) and I FINALLY started regarding a loss as something normal, part of the process.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed May 20, 2009 1:41 am

noone22 wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:There is no formula. Just LOOK AND SEE!


I'd like to see, but I don't know where to look in first place
and what to see - in second place.

Following initial KISS rule, one need to keep charts and
surrounding trading environment as simple as possible.

By looking at dozen of more charts picture
doesn't become clear, but instead - over-complicated.

Not even speaking about - we don't know, what you do know
and even looking at exactly the same set of info, as you have
in your disposal, we may jump to different conclusions.

Could you give complete list of tips - at least one by one,
or don't arouse by slogans.


Each trader must find their own way.

You must learn to SEE.

If I tell you EXACTLY what to look at, you might miss something else.

But if I give you a hint, you may just surprise yourself.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed May 20, 2009 1:45 am

Fxtraveller wrote:TRO

I must say that until now your thoughts and ideas were (mostly) clear to me. Horizontal line (be it an S/ R, Psych, pivots) were crystal clear, and simple.
But:

You were the one saying that a horizontal line is all you NEED to be profitable (and thats true, I myself back your words by trading your TRO SR RR). So why bother with dozens squiggly indicators, own and modifying others?

You say you should look at various currency pairs, but you used to insist that one should pick ONE method on ONE currency pair to get used to it.

DO I SEE?
I SEE that when a price passes a horizontal line marking a
1)recent high/low
2) the trigger lines based on pivots
- it is likely to go far enough to take some profit.

To answer you question:
"Do you always get 5 pips in 10 seconds?"

No, but half of trades are 1 minute or less, some 30% : 1-4 minutes. and the rest up to 10 minutes, if price triggers an order and stalls.

"This is TRADING - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!! "
oh YES, how true. thanks to you repeating this OVER and OVER again I finally got the message and stopped system hopping :) and I FINALLY started regarding a loss as something normal, part of the process.


One does NOT necessarily exclude the other.

You can be AWARE of what multiple pairs are doing and AT THE SAME TIME, be focused on your ONE PAIR on ONE CHART.

If you see all of the JPY pairs heading in the SAME DIRECTION, which way will you enter the trade? With or against the JPY?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


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