2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

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AventuraForex
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Postby AventuraForex » Sat Sep 26, 2009 5:02 pm

Well actually you are trying to change my words...

good work

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marypipins
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Postby marypipins » Sat Sep 26, 2009 8:38 pm

My friend...

I don't care what the books say or what the theory is or what your definition of negative expected value is .. all I know from true life experience of having dealt tens of thousands of hands of blackjack and seeing thousands of players come and go.. Players Lose Because They Don't Know When To Quit..Period That means not knowing when to quit when losing and not knowing when to quit when winning..
The casino wins because it plays without emotion..it has no fear.. no revenge.. no getting even..its a machine.. with unlimited time and capital.
Lisa
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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Sat Sep 26, 2009 8:56 pm

and because every single game in the casino has a negative expected value (unless you are either playing poker or counting cards in black jack).

Players lose because they are dumb enough to play a game that in the long run, they cannot win. No betting/staking system will turn a game with a negative expected value into a game with a positive expected value. It is the classical conditioning from random rewards that keeps people coming back (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_conditioning)

The time to quit a game with a negative EV is before you start............

marypipins wrote:My friend...

I don't care what the books say or what the theory is or what your definition of negative expected value is .. all I know from true life experience of having dealt tens of thousands of hands of blackjack and seeing thousands of players come and go.. Players Lose Because They Don't Know When To Quit..Period That means not knowing when to quit when losing and not knowing when to quit when winning..
The casino wins because it plays without emotion..it has no fear.. no revenge.. no getting even..its a machine.. with unlimited time and capital.
Lisa
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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Sat Sep 26, 2009 9:17 pm

Im confused? Why, if you have a systematic edge, that you constantly apply, are you fooling yourself if you compute your expected value for trading?

Isn't that the purpose of the "edge"? To give you a positive expected value? How else can you be the casino otherwise?

Statistics and probability are two sides of the same coin............


TheRumpledOne wrote:Do you know the difference between LOSE and LOOSE?

Some people WIN in casinos. They know when to quit.

The difference between trading and casino gambling is statistics vs. probability.

Statistics looks at the past.

Probability looks at the future.

There is no probability in trading, only statistics.

When you compute EXPECTED VALUE for trading, you are fooling yourself.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



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marypipins
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Postby marypipins » Sat Sep 26, 2009 9:21 pm

Razor..

I agree... your right about the point playing a game and playing in an environment that is totally stacked against you puts you in a very bad place to start. Long term play your odds of winning are slim to none.. short term play with discipline you have a chance.

So..going with your premise.. What is Forex? Is Forex a negative expected outcome?

Lisa
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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Sat Sep 26, 2009 9:34 pm

The beauty of forex is that it is like counting cards while playing black jack. you can tell when the deck is getting hot and only play then. Doesnt mean you will win that particular bet (as you well know).

If you know your edge and have tested it over a prolonged period of time (this is always a relative thing) and adequate number of trades, then I would have to say that you would be looking at a positive EV game.

But if you come in with no self control or understanding of probabilities and numbers, then you are probably screwed. So depending on your perspective, forex can be both a positive and negative EV game........90% will probably tell you that it is negative.....

The goal is to separate being good from being lucky. The attached article sort of illuminates that

with blackjack and not counting cards, but employing basic strategy, i think you can cut the house advantage down to 1% from 4%

marypipins wrote:Razor..

I agree... your right about the point playing a game and playing in an environment that is totally stacked against you puts you in a very bad place to start. Long term play your odds of winning are slim to none.. short term play with discipline you have a chance.

So..going with your premise.. What is Forex? Is Forex a negative expected outcome?

Lisa
Attachments
ARONSON_200702.pdf
(234.6 KiB) Downloaded 234 times
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AventuraForex
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I definetly have to become better on present my ideas

Postby AventuraForex » Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:11 pm

Yeah razorboy does get it perfectly...

Other thing is bullshit and thats just the true...

AventuraForex
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Postby AventuraForex » Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:19 pm

marypipins wrote:Razor..

hort term play with discipline you have a chance.


Lisa


You dont have a chance
You dont have edge
You dont have Positive expected Value (+EV)
Discipline means nothing...


YOU JUST GOT LUCKY!

AventuraForex
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Postby AventuraForex » Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:43 pm

Actually i feel very weird about draining the banks(DTB).

I have read some commentaries like:

"If you get your 2%, stop trading, dont be greedy"
"You have done well in 3 trades is enought for today, remember good traders now when to quit"
etc.....

Well im my opinion if a strategy has a LONG TERM POSITIVE EXPECTATION, or you have an EDGE over the system (like DTB says), You Should make The maximun amount of Volume your are capable of!!

It means no stoping trading unless you are exhausted, have to go other place, or just want to quit for X reasons. That what is gonna give you more money in the long term, and you can get rid of the VARIANCE more easy.

So if DTB works really... just dont stop trading! you will be rich in 1 year.

PD: I dont know if DTB works in long term, or if it is a totally bullshit. I have to learn well the DTB before made an statement of it. I dont have nothing versus TRO. I only think that if DTB is profitable like a 2% everyday, he has to be trilionaire now.

And what does a trillionarie does in a normal day-life?

Write on a internet-forum? Having a IB with a broker and taking comissions of it? Giving indicators for a DONATION (What a trillionari think about 5000 donations of 100$?). Selling a book? (because he had an offer he couldnt refusse).

.....

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Postby marypipins » Sat Sep 26, 2009 11:06 pm

ok.. I'm certainly not advocating that someone can be a consistent long term profitable gambler they may exist but I have never seen one, there are many reasons why people lose gambling, all I'm saying is the number 1 reason is because not knowing when to quit destroys even the lucky short term winner who at that point in time had things going their way only not wise enough or disciplined enough to get out while the window of opportunity was open.
As far as forex goes, if this is just another form of gambling then we are living the same delusion that gamblers have of being consistent winners. I don't believe forex is delusional but I don't believe its the quick fast money that is so widely touted. If you have been trading for any period of time you know that as a fact.
Lisa
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