2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

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TheRumpledOne
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2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:11 pm

2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

Image

According to Mark Douglas, you can "be the casino".

Price either goes up or down. In roulette, the ball can drop in a red, black or green slot. The casino has the "edge".

Looking at the HiOp OpLo count you can see price usually does NOT go 10 pips up AND down. That only happens about 3 times out of 10.

If you take the trade after price moves 10 pips ( sounds like the BuyZone, doesn't it?) then you should be able to win over the long haul.

Alternatively, you can guess which way price is going to move at the open of the H1 candle.

Before you ask about TP and SL, use the risk/reward and money management indicators.

The histogram, count and multipairs indicators are DONATIONAL.


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IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 28, 2009 6:41 pm

Image

See the GU... bet on green paid off. Bet on red never triggered.

DRAIN THE BANKS!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby aVi » Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:03 pm

NEATO!!!!
Wake up Mr. Green...

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Did some number crunching...

Postby cpamom » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:14 pm

Dumped the Open/High/Low/Close of the last 4,160 G/U bars and crunched some numbers. Had the spreadsheets already build as I've been analyzing daily high and low breakouts. Here's the breakdown...

Out of 4,160 bars, 1,199 (28.82%) moved up 10+ pips from open, 1,077 (25.89%) went down 10+ pips, 68 (1.63%) didn't hit 10+ either way, 1,816 (43.65 %) hit it both directions.

For those bars hitting the O(Open)+10 mark on the upside only, the average move up was 46.64 pips. For those hitting O-10 on the downside only, the average move down was 49.09 pips. When both sides hit, the average up move was 34.88 pips and down was 35.81 pips. As you can see, average hourly move is higher when the +/-10 mark only hits one direction and not the other, averages decline when both directions are hit.

Profit potential (I'm a scalper so I tested for 5 pips profit)...of the 1,199 hitting only on the move up, 1,038 (86.57%) hit at least O+19 up leaving a 5 pip scalp profit w/ a 4 pip spread if you entered at +10. For the move down, out of 1,077, 911 (84.59%) went to the O-19 mark.

When 10 pip mark is hit both directions, 1,236 of 1,816 (68.06%) of the upside moves go to the O+19 mark, and 1,294 of the 1,816 (71.26%) of the downside moves go to the O-19 mark. As with averages above, percentages moving to +/-19 pips are lower when mark is hit both ways.

Back later with more stats....tro is begging for a post.

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Postby cpamom » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:20 pm

I'm not suggesting a manual method of entering at every hour bar + or - 10 pips, but this is certainly powerful information when used in conjunction with Drain the Banks.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:30 pm

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I wonder why our counts are so different??!!??!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:45 pm

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IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby fxyorky » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:08 pm

TRO,

Sure looks great.

Looks very promising.

Can't wait to play with the casino.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:43 pm

It's the BUY ZONE with the triggers set at open +/- 10 pips.

You can use it on the GBPUSD and EURJPY. I don't know about the other pairs.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: Did some number crunching...

Postby rowdy » Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:49 am

cpamom wrote:Dumped the Open/High/Low/Close of the last 4,160 G/U bars and crunched some numbers. Had the spreadsheets already build as I've been analyzing daily high and low breakouts. Here's the breakdown...

Out of 4,160 bars, 1,199 (28.82%) moved up 10+ pips from open, 1,077 (25.89%) went down 10+ pips, 68 (1.63%) didn't hit 10+ either way, 1,816 (43.65 %) hit it both directions.

For those bars hitting the O(Open)+10 mark on the upside only, the average move up was 46.64 pips. For those hitting O-10 on the downside only, the average move down was 49.09 pips. When both sides hit, the average up move was 34.88 pips and down was 35.81 pips. As you can see, average hourly move is higher when the +/-10 mark only hits one direction and not the other, averages decline when both directions are hit.

Profit potential (I'm a scalper so I tested for 5 pips profit)...of the 1,199 hitting only on the move up, 1,038 (86.57%) hit at least O+19 up leaving a 5 pip scalp profit w/ a 4 pip spread if you entered at +10. For the move down, out of 1,077, 911 (84.59%) went to the O-19 mark.

When 10 pip mark is hit both directions, 1,236 of 1,816 (68.06%) of the upside moves go to the O+19 mark, and 1,294 of the 1,816 (71.26%) of the downside moves go to the O-19 mark. As with averages above, percentages moving to +/-19 pips are lower when mark is hit both ways.

Back later with more stats....tro is begging for a post.


Thank you very much for this very valueable information.

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