2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

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nickgurtsu
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Postby nickgurtsu » Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:36 pm

As I mentioned earlier it makes no sense to do analysis on the bars that never went -10 as the trader has no way of knowing that when enters the trade at +10 pip buy zone

Image

so here is the analisys on all bars that went +10 and were in between 8AM and 10AM est

the top box is showing that 76 bars in a 1000 bar look back were in between 8AM and 10AM est and went at least +10 pips from open
then 93 % of those went + 12 , 85% of those 76 bars went + 15 and so on

the bottom box is showing that 53% of all the 76 bars that went +10 touched -10 at some point intrabar so the worse case scenario would be the trader gets stopped out on 53% of the trades ...that's untradeable

maybe if the one moves the stop to - 25 below open that would be a loss - 37 with the spread ... on 20% trades !!!

these are the worse case scenarios
with this type of analysis this mythology is UNTRADEABLE

tick reply would uncover the real true but it takes forever on I don't have tick data
if someone wants to find out I'd be happy to code and run it

So far I'm still in darkness :(
Please god show me the light

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Mon Jul 13, 2009 10:52 pm

So why not target 10 pips per "winner".

Isn't one of the #1 moto's of trading to "let the winners run"?

Why would you have a 5 pip tp and a 10 pip stop........it's a struggle, believe me.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

nickgurtsu
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Postby nickgurtsu » Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:31 am

As I said above this type of analysis is worthless
It just shows the % of bars with high 10 + pips and the low of those bars

I need to run a tick reply to get accurate results

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 2:20 pm

TRO, my candles are different from yours?
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jul 16, 2009 3:25 am

Different... how so?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Patch
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Postby Patch » Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:26 am

pablo101
the bars can be changed to candle sticks. Look at the icons on the top bars and click the one with candle sticks. Also look up candle sticks in the help menu. jb
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:34 am

Thanks Patch, it may be that. Let me try
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

nickgurtsu
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Postby nickgurtsu » Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:11 pm

After careful exam of the casino I have to admit that there is some edge in this
how ever the the trader have to be on caffeine overdose to trade this which is ok

Also the donational indicators are meaningless as the examine completed bars, it's all about the intrabar action and only tick reply can show accurate results

I ran a tick reply from April 05 to November 05
the volatility wasn't that high those times so I lowered the buy zone trigger

Here are the settings:
EUR/USD
Half a lot Size (50,000)
Commission 2 per trade
time 8AM - 12AM
Entry + - 5 pips from H1 open
Profit target 10 pips
Stop 15 pips
Only one trade per 15 minute bar

THIS TEST IS DONE WITH NO SLIPPAGE INCLUDED !!!!
The spread is 1 pip lately so it should not be an issue
I gave a chart a quick visual and almost all the time the price goes above the PT so being filled on exits with limit order should not be an issue, if it come to stops it can be tricky

this is only a test to find out if there is any positive expectancy after all , the real life results always differ

Image

Image

Image

I think it's tradeable after all
I would like to do a some tests on current data so if someone can donate some tick data pls pm me

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:26 am

"Also the donational indicators are meaningless as the examine completed bars, it's all about the intrabar action and only tick reply can show accurate results "

Wrong!!

They are meant to be used while the market is open in REAL TIME.

They show you in REAL TIME, what is happening.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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khalid
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Postby khalid » Sun Jul 19, 2009 10:25 am

After careful exam of the casino I have to admit that there is some edge in this


nickgurtsu,

Your test shows the average win is only 0.645 times the average loss.

I cannot understand how can any method can provide a trader with an edge unless the average win is bigger than the average loss.

Indeed, I firmly believe unless the product of Win Percentage X Average Win / Average Loss is greater than 100 one would lose in the long run.

We may all be dead in the long run, but the long run still matters.

Khalid

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