2009.04.28 YOUR OWN CASINO

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 2:20 pm

TRO, my candles are different from yours?
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jul 16, 2009 3:25 am

Different... how so?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Patch
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Postby Patch » Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:26 am

pablo101
the bars can be changed to candle sticks. Look at the icons on the top bars and click the one with candle sticks. Also look up candle sticks in the help menu. jb
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:34 am

Thanks Patch, it may be that. Let me try
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

nickgurtsu
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Postby nickgurtsu » Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:11 pm

After careful exam of the casino I have to admit that there is some edge in this
how ever the the trader have to be on caffeine overdose to trade this which is ok

Also the donational indicators are meaningless as the examine completed bars, it's all about the intrabar action and only tick reply can show accurate results

I ran a tick reply from April 05 to November 05
the volatility wasn't that high those times so I lowered the buy zone trigger

Here are the settings:
EUR/USD
Half a lot Size (50,000)
Commission 2 per trade
time 8AM - 12AM
Entry + - 5 pips from H1 open
Profit target 10 pips
Stop 15 pips
Only one trade per 15 minute bar

THIS TEST IS DONE WITH NO SLIPPAGE INCLUDED !!!!
The spread is 1 pip lately so it should not be an issue
I gave a chart a quick visual and almost all the time the price goes above the PT so being filled on exits with limit order should not be an issue, if it come to stops it can be tricky

this is only a test to find out if there is any positive expectancy after all , the real life results always differ

Image

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Image

I think it's tradeable after all
I would like to do a some tests on current data so if someone can donate some tick data pls pm me

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:26 am

"Also the donational indicators are meaningless as the examine completed bars, it's all about the intrabar action and only tick reply can show accurate results "

Wrong!!

They are meant to be used while the market is open in REAL TIME.

They show you in REAL TIME, what is happening.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby khalid » Sun Jul 19, 2009 10:25 am

After careful exam of the casino I have to admit that there is some edge in this


nickgurtsu,

Your test shows the average win is only 0.645 times the average loss.

I cannot understand how can any method can provide a trader with an edge unless the average win is bigger than the average loss.

Indeed, I firmly believe unless the product of Win Percentage X Average Win / Average Loss is greater than 100 one would lose in the long run.

We may all be dead in the long run, but the long run still matters.

Khalid

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Postby nickgurtsu » Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:00 am

the wining % was 92 on the long side
I can run a test with 10 pips PT and 10 pip stop see if the number comes closer to what you expect

robust strategies either have high wining % or the average winner is higher then average loser
it's very hard to achieve both however it can be done with optimization but that can get you only in trouble

trust me I've been testing for a long time and it's not easy to find the global max

this is considered as a scalpin method so the trader has to make a choice

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:25 pm

We all know the odds favor the house.

But the main reason casino's win is because most people do NOT know when to quit.

Let's say you have two 10 pips losses in a row and on the third entry you make 30 or more pips. DO YOU QUIT FOR THE SESSION OR KEEP TRADING?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby prochargedmopar » Fri Jul 24, 2009 2:49 pm

Please post results with 8sl/10tp......
My wife started trading this system london for 2 opening hrs.....
she trades for like 10-15 min a day and is doing pretty good.
Had 16.7 one day and 11.8 yesterday.....
2 trades a day.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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