TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:30 am

MightyOne wrote:I think there is a limit to how many times you can quote the same person :wink: :lol:

2,362 posts??
Law of Probability says you're bound to say something useful eventually... 8) :P

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby MightyOne » Tue Mar 22, 2011 12:46 am

TygerKrane wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I think there is a limit to how many times you can quote the same person :wink: :lol:

2,362 posts??
Law of Probability says you're bound to say something useful eventually... 8) :P


I- :lol: +ed

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Re: More NLA Gems #2

Postby vane » Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:25 am

TygerKrane wrote:[font=Tahoma][highlight=darkviolet]Using Profits to Inflate Your Stop Loss {thus, Increasing Your Survivability}[/highlight][/font]


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Hours, days, weeks, months, years...

if you are going to achieve a goal based on any of them you need to break the main goal into smaller goals which when combined achieve your main goal.

Each time period represents an achievable reward based on the periods average movement.

Break up the time period into smaller parts and then trade for the reward of the whole.

The ONLY thing you have to do correctly is grab a small profit and inflate your SL.
The larger your SL becomes the less skill[highlight=lightblue] (of picking entry points) [/highlight]is required.

Trading is about risk aversion and endurance more so than anything else.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: What PRO was saying is exactly how momentum is to be traded.

It starts with a high time frame momentum and price finding S&R.
You might enter on a 5m and catch a run of 30 pips, but when you switch over to a 30 minute candle a momentum bar may just be completing...so you exit.

This is where you change your mentality in regards to "pip ownership"

That 30 pip gain is not a 30 pip profit if you are going to continue to trade in the prev. direction for a longer duration.
You simply put the trade on pause and are now requesting a better price to enter.
If you enter after price drops 18 pips and price returns to the high then you have made an additional 1.8-3.6% and if you do this 5 times a week then you increase your gains by 9-18%.

Add the profit from overlap to a 7-18% return and you are sitting with a 16-36% gain at the end of the week.

If you are a DWM trader (daily,weekly, monthly or DO WHAT MATTERS trader ;))
then the overlap will be much greater and that is when you realize weekly returns of 40, 70, 123% and beyond.

I know it can be hard when you are up say 400 pips or $40,000 trading the monthly chart and you enter in the monthly MZ and watch as price drops 200 pips or -$20,000 before turning around and giving you a 1,200 pip gain or $160,000 total, but chances are that you will never reach such a large pip gain as a timid trader.

[highlight=lightorange]And that is another trick that you should know:

You only have to be precise in you timing and entry level from the time you initiate a trade until the time you have OPM to play with.
Once you have other peoples money then you can start leaning on the competition by being aggressive with their money.

While they are in "anti draw down move my SL to BE" mode you will be in "all the money in the world" mode and will be picking up their positions at bargain prices.

All this is done until your trade comes to an end on the long term charts at which time you are back to considering the money your own.[/highlight]

There is a lot that you can learn from poker:

Play as if your stake has already been lost and the only way to get it back is to make it to the final table.
No professional, that has made it to the final table, arrived there without risking everything more than once.

A tournament starts with capital preservation and small balling (small stabs at the pot) and ends with aggression and who is more willing to take risk.

Anyways, that is my rant for today :roll:


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Just remember that there is always a retracement size that makes it more likely that price will not return to or hold beyond the extreme.




:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:...

If you sat down to trade and bought on a green candle could it decline or change to red before it closes?

Hour, four hour, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, what do these mean to you?

No matter the time frame and no matter the color price will either go up or go down from the time you sit down to trade to the time
you get up.

...

The secret to surviving is to reinvest your gains into your stop.
Let price retrace and then trade in the same direction with the
larger stop.
Keep reinvesting your profits into your stop and do not exit
without new profits or move your stop closer.

WHATEVER YOU ARE RISKING YOU ARE RISKING!

If you risk 2% over 10 pips and add 20 pips in profit then
you are risking the initial 10 and the 20 pips for a 30sl.

If you risk 10 pips every trade without inflating it with profit then you may find your self getting whipsawed and no one can recover from that.

If you increase your SL to 20 and then take 20 pips in profit then
you are going to risk all of your profit on the next trade for another
mediocre profit.
Even if you made 40 pips you are risking half your profit and for what, a 2 to 1 return?
Even if you go for big pips you just sliced your profit potential in half!

By reinvesting your profit back into your stop you give your self "option like" staying power.
You use your day trading abilities to make a push on a small TF
and then you retreat (stay out DO NOT REVERSE!) as the animals give chase. Add more pips to your armor and then advance.

Keep retreating, adding, retreating, & adding until you reach your goal or your line dissolves.

What line?

The line that tells you which way your are trading!

This one:

Image

You are not here trying to make Baby Pips (there is another forum for that) you are trying drain all the cash right out of the pockets of the Illuminati.

At 1% a 100 pip gain is a profit of 20%
At 2% a 100 pip gain is a profit of 40%

At 1% a 300 pip gain is a profit of 60%
At 2% a 300 pip gain is a profit of 120%

Risking even 0.5% per trade and reinvesting profits until
you reach your goal is enough to make the same as a trader
risking 5% per trade in and out of the market.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: The only way price will ever reach your stop is if you entered and were not in profit to exit and inflate your stop.
On a large move against you you would be out and then you would re enter as it started to turn around.
Or you would be wrong immediately and let price move to your stop if that is where it was going.
[highlight=black]
Yes, you would lose 2%
[/highlight]...

What you are risking is what you are risking, you either make good entry decisions and take a profit before retrace or you might take a loss.

Too often traders say to them selves "ahh I'll move my SL to break even" or "I'll lock in a small profit" and they just let price come back
on them because they are comfortable.
If professional poker players are making more money than you then there is some thing seriously wrong with what you are doing!

If you were up 17 pips and price suddenly dropped to +9 you would not complain.

But If you exited at +17, increased your stop to 26 and reentered
at 9 suddenly you are thinking about how you were in profit and
might end up with a loss.

Is it not true that your intent was to hold to your target/goal?

Is it not true that price retraced lowering the probability that
you would achieve your goal due to a smaller market gyration taking you out?

Corrections in your account = The Anti Goal :evil:


I am only trying to retrain your mind for success :shock:

Once you understand the concept and plan your strategy around it
then you will no longer be dreaming of a 5% weekly gain (in fact you may even add zeros to it in reality).


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Now that your mind has overcome its fear of losing short term profits I will put it more at ease:

Your largest stop need only be the size of the largest correction in an up move for longs and the largest correction in a down move for shorts. If you do not have a size for the shorts then check the last bear trend in your history.

Chances are that you will not enter at the apex before the correction and if it retraces greater than the maximum retracement then it is likely not a retracement.

ImageImage




Your shield and your sword ;)

Space Wars

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Re: More NLA Gems #2

Postby TygerKrane » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:47 pm

vane wrote:
Your shield and your sword ;)

Space Wars


Yeah, thanks for the reminder vane, totally forgot about that.

For some reason, with both Space Wars and Macro Rat, I stuck my big toe in the water, turned around, AND RAN LIKE HELL!!

{I think I had felt better off focusing on whatever I was focusing on, instead of trying something new...}

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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More NLA Gems #4

Postby TygerKrane » Fri Mar 25, 2011 5:19 am

[font=Tahoma][highlight=darkviolet]How To NOT Miss the Trade:[/highlight][/font]

:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
cfabian wrote:Ok,
First I saw low opportunity with great deal of held profit (targets are the upper yellow lines, as well as possible areas to short trades). Once the candle in the red square broke the yellow line, I set a limit order to enter the trade in the retracement. It didn't come back.

In cases like this, when it doesn't come back on the next candle, how you suggest to trade it in order to NOT MISS the trade, and most important, NOT CHASING the trade????????

Price ended up rising fast, as there were news coming up.

Image


sometimes you just miss it

i wouldn't have gotten in on that, if i was wanting to go long and watching that pair



cant catch em all



[highlight=grey]How to Know if a MightyZone will Hold Up or be Broken Through:[/highlight]

:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
brettnchrism wrote:Ok I am waiting for my ah ha moment here. My first one was seeing how traders get zero'd out and I completely see that all over my charts with the help of blubb's z line indicator.

Now ES said (if this trade/area holds where is the next group of traders sitting with held profits) Ok I see on the charts I posted that GJ just zero'd out profit holders in the 35 area and now made a new momo up on the hourly along with making a double bottom. Price is headed for the 25 zl which is a H4 H1 target. [highlight=violet]This is where I loose it. How can I tell if after the 25 zl gets hit that price will not continue up to the short holders or going to stop at the 25 area and continue down to the long holders.[/highlight] I did look at the H4 and there is a momo down bar so what I would say since we have a hourly momo up into a down h4 momo a long would not be advised. Anyway this is the last part of my puzzle how to determine directon after a zl has beeen hit. I posted GJ chart H4 and H1 for an example.








[highlight=violet]"This is where I loose it. How can I tell if after the 25 zl gets hit that price will not continue up to the short holders or going to stop at the 25 area and continue down to the long holders. "[/highlight]

[highlight=yellow]i don't know--- you cant know--- no one knows (except maybe MO)-----. if someone figures that out please let me know.[/highlight] All i know is the market lives to zero out other traders, it moves to and from each area and sometimes the area holds and sometimes it does not.

you have to think about what all the other traders did and are thinking about doing. and then trade off of their emotions. it is all about held profit and momentum.

so (keep in mind this is friday afternoon)

this what i would be looking at and thinking-- i don't trade this pair but this is what i would think when i look at this chart

in your 4 hr chart example if i saw the double bottom and notice the momo slowing into it.
Image

so if i was thinking of trading long i would dial down and look for a reason to trade long
Image
Image
if i was only referencing the h4 as far as held profit i would be targeting the magenta line. when price gets up there i would take my profit and then look inside and see whats happening to see if i am going to try and trade short back down to the yellow line.

if the PA and momo do not show that the magneta line is going to hold the price and we have momo up thru that area. Then i would be looking to get back in long( based on momo) and trade up to the next area of held profit--- which would be the red line.
Image


I am not sure i can explain what i do---- hell i am not sure i even know what i am doing when i am doing it----------[highlight=yellow] i just look at where we are where we came from and where we are going next---based on held profit------- and then trade to and from those areas based on momo. [/highlight]

momo shows the way

held profit is the destination



[font=Verdana][highlight=olive]2 similar scenarios of a 'larger body' up MOMO, then a 'smaller body' down MOMO, with price ultimately going Short. Coincidentally, the second quote-box is the same pair just a few hours later than the trade in the first quote-box...:[/highlight][/font]

:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
nelreth wrote:Hi

I have question about MZ - how do You determine when MZ is broken ?
Candle close above/below MZ ?

Example

Image

On this picture price is currently in MZ (for short) but the last candle create new MZ (for long)

How do You handle in this case ?

Regards


for me anyway

once the PA goes above/below a MZ and we have new PA then the zone is no longer valid

On this picture price is currently in MZ (for short) but the last candle create new MZ (for long)

u just have to read the PA and make a decision on what makes the most sense----- and look at where the next level of held profit is that you are shooting for. When you were looking short off the above MZ you have a new held profit just created right below you---- so not much room to go down---same on the long that could have been traded--- no real room to go up

could it have been traded----yes------did i trade it-----yes--- was it worth it---- not really

but i was aware that there was no room and just got out at the first sign it was stalling-----


but this trade is a lot more inviting bec it has more room



Image


:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
dragon33 wrote:The first trade is not out the book it is just a trade away from resistance

Image

Here you can see the reentry based on the H1 chart.

Image

Here you can see the priceaction on the M15

Image

cfabian wrote:Very nice dragon... I had the same trade, but going the other way LOL. Here's what I was seeing:

H1, price had long momentum, then short momo started to build and saw the area you marked on your H1 chart. As long momo candle was bigger and saw price action bouncing up, thought would be a long entry point. Then looked for that entry point on lower TF.

What made you believe price would go down even further? My H4 candle at that time showed no momo (it does now at the close).

Image

Image


:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:once that momo short comes into that long momo and then cant go up its a short trade------ especially with the double top on the h1 right behind it

i can see what you were looking at----

but by the time you got long it was right back into the mz of the short momo bar-- if i was going to try it i would want it as low as poss. or pass on it

the double top ( with an increase of momo down off of it) being the main factor for me on that one though

edit----------------------------------------------------

just saw that q was directed to Dragon

thats just what i was thinking through that


:idea: dragon33 :idea: wrote:When a H4 zone is reached or hit or almost hit (2-5 pips) i believe the H1 momo. I only start trading away from it. Yes i do lose sometimes because price decide to go the other way. If i see a body to body forming on the biggest tmf (body close and open next are the same) an price is running away i believe there is a reversal.

On the pictures you can see how i work. It would be a challenge to make 140 pips out of a 100 pip run but i feel safer to renter at the price where i first target.


:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:also just be aware that the further up you are buying the more held profit there is below you. Increasing the chances of them being zl'ed taking your long position down to them.

not saying you cant or shouldn't play it as it keeps going and going---- just that the risk increases



[highlight=orange]More MightyZone & ZLine analysis:[/highlight]

:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
ely37 wrote:
es/pip wrote:
ely37 wrote:
es/pip wrote:
ely37 wrote:That's the problem. I have no idea how to get into a trade. I'm guessing that PIN bar at the bottom with a bit of confirmation on the next (entry) bar?


just to say it again---- i do this a little different than Mo and Dragon

i was watching this one as well but was already long the pound and ej at the time so i passed on it

this is how i see it

Image


Hmm. I was actually looking at the 3 down bars as the MOMO and to ZL on. Guess I need to figure out what the ZL is for entry...


well the 3 down bars were momo to the downside. They in return zl'ed other traders sitting with a profit, and at the same time created another instance of held profit from the downside. Then we had an increase in momentum which created a mz-Zl situation and then went up and zl'ed the held profit from the short side.

again

zl-mz are not entry signals per say

u want momentum in order to trade.

momentum

trade accordingly

zl other traders

repeat

body in direction of profit wick in direction of loss


:idea: dragon33 :idea: wrote:Image

scheeco wrote:Took this one this morning:
This was my thought process:
Probability Checkboxes:
a) Price in H4 and H1 zones (defined by MOMO candles)
b) Sema confirmation in H4 / H1 zone on M15 chart
c) Close of first other colour M15 candle

All these were checked but noticed the huge SHORT MOMO in the overlay (circled in yellow) so I thought based on yesterday that I am waiting for the next H1 candle to close before making a decision.
The next BLUE H1 closed below the 50% level of the RED MOMO H1 candle so failed to close higher therefor I thought a SHORT would have been safe.(I think this part of my analysis as just crap!)
However I did take 9 pips ...entered short at 50% level of RED H1 MOMO candle @ 1.21949.
Image

In retorspect I am thinking the following... while I did everything right at this point - the fault in my analysis was two fold:
1) Price failed to close lower ( below RED H1 MOMO candle) as MOMO was down - that would indicate that price may start reversing now. However the opposite would be true if MOMO was upwards and price failed to close higher, than a reversal may be possible.

2) A double bottom formed. I am a little unsure as to its significance and when tp pay attention to them and what they may imply. But looking at some charts it seems that they are a good indication of reversal coming our way.

Are these retrospective analysis on the right track?



Your analysis is good but you are missing some parts. Red momo down! So you only think shorting. The next candle closes on the 50% area. This indicates that price may continue if the blue candle holds and see what happens next!!! Price retraced but couldn't close below The openprice of the blue H1. Now you need to be fast and find some entry. rat enry of the blue H1 is nice to do.

Sometimes you get time sometimes you need to be very fast. If things are not clear stay out and observe. If you observe 10 times and 10 times happens the same then you know your analysis start to work



[font=Arial][highlight=brown]A series of bad ZLine/MightyZone/S&R trades:[/highlight][/font]

:x MightyOne :x wrote:
Azuremaster wrote:For ZL fans.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image


If you are being serious then you have learned absolutely nothing in all of these posts and I pity you.

You suffer from blindly taking trades without checking where you are in the larger picture (which is not the 1 hour chart by the way).

...




[hr][hr][hr][hr]

:smt115 brettnchrism :smt115 wrote:Yes I see the z lines getting hit I just need to figure out the direction from there if u look at the gj chart we have a double bottom on hourly and a reversal mono but it's reversing into a h4 down mono candle could be tricky

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Traders alter what they are doing based on what they are seeing, if that is what you are pointing out.





:smt059 MightyOne :smt059 wrote:PS: I am not trying to be critical, I just don't want to see you 2 years from now still posting small daily gains and working at a JOB.
Last edited by TygerKrane on Fri Mar 25, 2011 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby pablo101 » Fri Mar 25, 2011 5:59 am

I admire your dedication and your book keeping TGK! Keep up the good work :D :D :D
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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Postby TygerKrane » Fri Mar 25, 2011 3:59 pm

MightyOne wrote:
TygerKrane wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I think there is a limit to how many times you can quote the same person :wink: :lol:

2,362 posts??
Law of Probability says you're bound to say something useful eventually... 8) :P


I- :lol: +ed

Now, I'll make you :shock: then =P~ THEN Love_Smile

[align=center][highlight=yellow] MightyOne (if that is even your real name),[/highlight]

[font=Times New Roman][highlight=darkgreen]You are now being arrested and taken in for questioning as to why you are so generous of your time & dedicated to helping all those aspiring pirates who pass through kreslik.com!!![/highlight][/font]

[highlight=darkred]As this is an international matter, you will first be extradited to Indonesia by an:
[/highlight]
[highlight=darkred] Elite Police Protection Squad[/highlight][highlight=darkred],
and then interrogated by the [/highlight]

[highlight=darkred] Chief Police Detective [/highlight]
[highlight=darkred] over there... [/highlight]
[/align]

[highlight=green] Elite Police Protection Squad [/highlight] wrote:

[align=center]Image[/align]


[highlight=green] Chief Police Detective [/highlight] wrote:

[align=center]Image[/align]

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Postby dojirock » Fri Mar 25, 2011 9:02 pm

Nice TygerKrane!!!

Doji :P
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby pablo101 » Sat Mar 26, 2011 1:59 am

TygerKrane wrote:
[align=center]Image[/align]


Tyger, not a pretty sight but I just creamed my pants! :D :D :D

(wonder if she's the real deal, if so I've gotta conjure up some excuse to the wifey to go for 'forex conventions' in indonesia) :D
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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Postby TygerKrane » Sat Mar 26, 2011 2:34 am

pablo101 wrote:I admire your dedication and your book keeping TGK! Keep up the good work :D :D :D

Thanks!!

Yes, well now the reading phase is finally over and its back to trading Monday. 7 market days without trading?!? Felt horrible
The amount of hours I crammed in to go through as much material as possible, disgusting.
Last edited by TygerKrane on Sat Mar 26, 2011 2:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

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