TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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TygerKrane
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EU trade, flip-flopping bias

Postby TygerKrane » Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:40 am

Started with a long bias to trade out of the consolidation area.
(Usually, I wouldn't consider going short until price crosses below @1.3955.)

Image


-14 pips was enough heat for me, so I closed it out.
(Usually, I would try to wait for price to go lower -since it is still within the previous consolidation- and then try to go long again.)
This time I felt the sudden urge to just take it short immediately. (expecting more consecutive bearish candles.)

Image


Almost immediately trade went against me -11pips.
(I guess safer might have been to wait for price to retrace to that newer consolidation; but being closer to the top of my original consolidation area, I normally I would still be trying to trade with my original long bias.)

Image


Waiting to see if price drops. (But considering price is now at the BOTTOM of my original consolidation area, I feel I have a reason to just close out and go LONG from here.)

Image


But I will keep the trade open as a short.
(Even though, I really feel that price will either hit 1.3955 or 1.3943 and hit a massive stack of long orders that sends this sh!t skyrocketing up. --And as it is now 12:38 midnight, I will be asleep when that happens. :smt015 :cry: )

Image

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EU trade, flip-flopping bias

Postby TygerKrane » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:32 pm

Image

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Postby TygerKrane » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:40 pm

ufck, how is it that I've NEVER seen this post before??? ](*,)
It's only on pg 219 of NLA...
Of course I know it's been said, and re-said, but still...
_______________________________________________________

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:No I did not place this trade, but it would have been nice to turn on your computer and see this :shock:

All you want to see Is a body in the direction of profit and a wick in the direction of loss.

Note that it was the higher momentum close that created the zero line.

The bullish candle was a signal to buy and that lasted until the following weak candle that closed below the zero line and further weakness to the buy side after that.

Image

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Postby TygerKrane » Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:02 pm

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:
Find which way price is moving and then divide your position up by 2 or 3. Be more apt to trade for small profits at first and re enter limit orders to trade for larger profits. It pays to stay one step ahead of your self so you get your orders out there on time.

There are a lot of times when I just know that if I throw a limit at X and get filled then I will make a small profit and so I throw out a small order.

Throw small jabs at the market not knock out punches. You can't win on raw power :evil: as you will just run right into a counter punch.

If you are not "feeling it" ie you don't see how and where the price is going to move to pay you off then don't place the trades.

There are times when I sit a move out because price is not moving as I picture it in my head.

Image

1. Where is price moving?
2. Small orders *jab* *jab*
3. Small profits *bob n' weave* (defensive cushion)
4. Larger profits "KO"


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Postby TygerKrane » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:29 pm

:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
monolisa wrote:Hi MO,

So a breakout is not indication of momentum, what indicates momentum? I presume it's the body size of the candle.

Learn to be patience and wait till momentum eventuates, then get in. Is it the key?

Thanks MO.


Lis


yes body size of candles

what does bar # 1 2 and 3 tell you in the following pic?

answer like this

bar number 1 tells me.....................

bar #2 tells me ..............

etc
Image



:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
monolisa wrote:...........

THanks.

Lis


that's not exactly what i was looking for

but

------ this is all of what MO has said repeatedly over the past 5 pages------

what we want to see as traders is momentum

when we have momentum we have movement and as a result we have traders sitting with profit

what happens to traders sitting with profit?

candle #1 tells me--------- nothing at all besides it is a bear bar with less momentum than the prev. bar and i could care less about anything at this point.

candle 2 tells me--------- ALERT ALERT ALERT----- we have momentum---- this bar is over twice as big as the prev. bar----PEOPLE ARE TRADING---- MOVEMENT-MOMENTUM------ now i am extremely interested------- traders are sitting with profit as a result of the momentum---- i am ready to take action

candle 3 tell me ----------- that i am in this trade----- the held profit is zerod out and now we can move again.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

as far a summing up the zline stuff------u need to read the thread or u will not understand-----some people have read the thread and still do not understand.

but

body in direction of profit wick in direction of loss ----trade in the direction of profit---- is the summed version--- and what MO said in the very beginning


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Postby TygerKrane » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:39 pm

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:You guys/gals still consider some things that I would deem irrelevant, but to each their own ;)

Image


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More NLA Gems #1 (Some Lukx Zline thread stuff too)

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:03 am

[highlight=black][font=Andalus]Definitions: ZLine; ZLine Trade; Support (S&R) Trade[/font][/highlight]


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: If you see a breakout and you can imagine your self sitting with profit after moving your stops to BE then that is a ZL.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:...
What is a ZL but S&R?

What is our definition for Resistance?

Resistance: A line that you believe price should cross and close below in the period in which it is found.

IF you believe that price should cross a line and close below then why would you go long at said line.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:Image

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Only the bar hugging the momo triggers a ZL trade :!:

After that you are looking at a trade off of support.

It hit your line and it closed strong RED so I would be highly inclined to exit at any profit.
For sure when it closed weak GREEN I would just exit.

If at any time you were sitting with a loss on the close of a 5m chart then I would just exit at B.E.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:Any line that runs through the "Mighty Zone" is a correctly drawn zero line.
There is almost always a better price to be had :lol:

The line on the bottom is a support trade not a zero line trade.

Image


:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:" I am seeing more and more the z line trades but most are more S/R trades due to several bars coming back to zline area."

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
that is exactly how it is to be played.

a true zl trade is on consecutive bars

if multiple bars you treat it as a s/r trade and trade away from the area


:D
Last edited by TygerKrane on Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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More NLA Gems #2

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:48 am

[font=Tahoma][highlight=darkviolet]Using Profits to Inflate Your Stop Loss {thus, Increasing Your Survivability}[/highlight][/font]


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Hours, days, weeks, months, years...

if you are going to achieve a goal based on any of them you need to break the main goal into smaller goals which when combined achieve your main goal.

Each time period represents an achievable reward based on the periods average movement.

Break up the time period into smaller parts and then trade for the reward of the whole.

The ONLY thing you have to do correctly is grab a small profit and inflate your SL.
The larger your SL becomes the less skill[highlight=lightblue] (of picking entry points) [/highlight]is required.

Trading is about risk aversion and endurance more so than anything else.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: What PRO was saying is exactly how momentum is to be traded.

It starts with a high time frame momentum and price finding S&R.
You might enter on a 5m and catch a run of 30 pips, but when you switch over to a 30 minute candle a momentum bar may just be completing...so you exit.

This is where you change your mentality in regards to "pip ownership"

That 30 pip gain is not a 30 pip profit if you are going to continue to trade in the prev. direction for a longer duration.
You simply put the trade on pause and are now requesting a better price to enter.
If you enter after price drops 18 pips and price returns to the high then you have made an additional 1.8-3.6% and if you do this 5 times a week then you increase your gains by 9-18%.

Add the profit from overlap to a 7-18% return and you are sitting with a 16-36% gain at the end of the week.

If you are a DWM trader (daily,weekly, monthly or DO WHAT MATTERS trader ;))
then the overlap will be much greater and that is when you realize weekly returns of 40, 70, 123% and beyond.

I know it can be hard when you are up say 400 pips or $40,000 trading the monthly chart and you enter in the monthly MZ and watch as price drops 200 pips or -$20,000 before turning around and giving you a 1,200 pip gain or $160,000 total, but chances are that you will never reach such a large pip gain as a timid trader.

[highlight=lightorange]And that is another trick that you should know:

You only have to be precise in you timing and entry level from the time you initiate a trade until the time you have OPM to play with.
Once you have other peoples money then you can start leaning on the competition by being aggressive with their money.

While they are in "anti draw down move my SL to BE" mode you will be in "all the money in the world" mode and will be picking up their positions at bargain prices.

All this is done until your trade comes to an end on the long term charts at which time you are back to considering the money your own.[/highlight]

There is a lot that you can learn from poker:

Play as if your stake has already been lost and the only way to get it back is to make it to the final table.
No professional, that has made it to the final table, arrived there without risking everything more than once.

A tournament starts with capital preservation and small balling (small stabs at the pot) and ends with aggression and who is more willing to take risk.

Anyways, that is my rant for today :roll:


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Just remember that there is always a retracement size that makes it more likely that price will not return to or hold beyond the extreme.




:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:...

If you sat down to trade and bought on a green candle could it decline or change to red before it closes?

Hour, four hour, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, what do these mean to you?

No matter the time frame and no matter the color price will either go up or go down from the time you sit down to trade to the time
you get up.

...

The secret to surviving is to reinvest your gains into your stop.
Let price retrace and then trade in the same direction with the
larger stop.
Keep reinvesting your profits into your stop and do not exit
without new profits or move your stop closer.

WHATEVER YOU ARE RISKING YOU ARE RISKING!

If you risk 2% over 10 pips and add 20 pips in profit then
you are risking the initial 10 and the 20 pips for a 30sl.

If you risk 10 pips every trade without inflating it with profit then you may find your self getting whipsawed and no one can recover from that.

If you increase your SL to 20 and then take 20 pips in profit then
you are going to risk all of your profit on the next trade for another
mediocre profit.
Even if you made 40 pips you are risking half your profit and for what, a 2 to 1 return?
Even if you go for big pips you just sliced your profit potential in half!

By reinvesting your profit back into your stop you give your self "option like" staying power.
You use your day trading abilities to make a push on a small TF
and then you retreat (stay out DO NOT REVERSE!) as the animals give chase. Add more pips to your armor and then advance.

Keep retreating, adding, retreating, & adding until you reach your goal or your line dissolves.

What line?

The line that tells you which way your are trading!

This one:

Image

You are not here trying to make Baby Pips (there is another forum for that) you are trying drain all the cash right out of the pockets of the Illuminati.

At 1% a 100 pip gain is a profit of 20%
At 2% a 100 pip gain is a profit of 40%

At 1% a 300 pip gain is a profit of 60%
At 2% a 300 pip gain is a profit of 120%

Risking even 0.5% per trade and reinvesting profits until
you reach your goal is enough to make the same as a trader
risking 5% per trade in and out of the market.


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: The only way price will ever reach your stop is if you entered and were not in profit to exit and inflate your stop.
On a large move against you you would be out and then you would re enter as it started to turn around.
Or you would be wrong immediately and let price move to your stop if that is where it was going.
[highlight=black]
Yes, you would lose 2%
[/highlight]...

What you are risking is what you are risking, you either make good entry decisions and take a profit before retrace or you might take a loss.

Too often traders say to them selves "ahh I'll move my SL to break even" or "I'll lock in a small profit" and they just let price come back
on them because they are comfortable.
If professional poker players are making more money than you then there is some thing seriously wrong with what you are doing!

If you were up 17 pips and price suddenly dropped to +9 you would not complain.

But If you exited at +17, increased your stop to 26 and reentered
at 9 suddenly you are thinking about how you were in profit and
might end up with a loss.

Is it not true that your intent was to hold to your target/goal?

Is it not true that price retraced lowering the probability that
you would achieve your goal due to a smaller market gyration taking you out?

Corrections in your account = The Anti Goal :evil:


I am only trying to retrain your mind for success :shock:

Once you understand the concept and plan your strategy around it
then you will no longer be dreaming of a 5% weekly gain (in fact you may even add zeros to it in reality).


:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: Now that your mind has overcome its fear of losing short term profits I will put it more at ease:

Your largest stop need only be the size of the largest correction in an up move for longs and the largest correction in a down move for shorts. If you do not have a size for the shorts then check the last bear trend in your history.

Chances are that you will not enter at the apex before the correction and if it retraces greater than the maximum retracement then it is likely not a retracement.

ImageImage


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Postby MightyOne » Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:59 am

I think there is a limit to how many times you can quote the same person :wink: :lol:

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More NLA Gems #3

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:20 am

[highlight=grey] Trading Scenarios and the Logical (:!: Discretionary :!:) Explanations that go with Them [/highlight]



:idea: Never Lose Again, pg339 :idea: wrote:[align=center]Image[/align]

es/pip wrote:...
as far as the zline trade this is how i would have looked at it

MightyOne wrote: Beautiful analysis es / pip :P

I would say that multiple bars traded into resistance (since momentum increased short last) and then momentum increased short.



:?: razorboy :?: wrote:Went long on the second wick in the blue zone..........killed it by the thumb - thought the green bars had some good momentum.

When should i have killed this?




:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:???????????????????????????

where you have your zone makes no logical sense----at all

where you got long i would have gotten short on the next bar -----------------------------------do you see that?

very important

no matter if u are trading the 5min-the daily------if a 5 min bar closes against you----------then your a$$ is wrong-------close your trade then or if you see PA dictating you can get out at b/e then do that

the only reason you ever take a full stop------is when you get totally get ripped against and have no choice

razor----come on---------really?

that is not a MZ

i know u see it

but that is not it

again i know you see it---from what i have seen on your other charts--------------don't let your mind get in the way-----trade what you see



:?: razorboy :?: wrote:in on the second wick in the z zone - short to the thumb - 17 pips
correction - short At 141.14 - cover at 140.97 - in on lower wick of last small bear bar
any pointers would be most appreciated




:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote: It was a resistance trade and an exit after increased momo -
I cannot see my self trading it any differently.


==========================================================

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:My father always said,"son if you want to learn a thing or two then you have to know a little less."

Image



[highlight=indigo]This next scenario is one that I always find myself completely confused with; Way to go cfabian!! FTW[/highlight] :!: :P


:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
cfabian wrote:I have a question for you...

In the attached image you'll see 4H candles. There's 2 oposite momentum candles embrazing good "setups".

Now, were will price head to???? (don't look at your charts now). Candle in yellow circle provides a ZL in same color. Same thing for the one in light blue. Price action is supporting both lines.

Image



i say down

the way i look at it is you have momo on your yellow circle it gets zl'ed on the blue momo circle creating a new and more current momo short--- it comes back up to zl thoes blue circle shorts and now is free to move in the direction of the down momo. so i would trade it short

of course- the market is going to do whatever it is going to do so watch the PA and trade accordingly.

as far as where it is going to go---- our data is a little different--- but on your chart i would say to the next small green MZ you have on your chart. I would be be paying close attention to the possible double bottom before the zone and looking inside to decide if i stay in or not

edit---------------------------------------

it is obviously going down now----- but, you also have to take note that the yellow circled momo was greater--- but since i consider those traders to be zl'ed i will trade new momo after it. If they(the yellow) traders had not be zl'ed yet then i would be looking long not short

if that makes sense



:idea: dragon33 :idea: wrote:
lukx wrote:Image


The wicking is the first sign, now you need another candle which indicates that price is running out. After that you need another MOMO to the upside and then you need to start looking for the reverse. The one you show is down and not valid to trade long.

I am not telling that you can't win such trade.

...



:idea: es/pip :idea: wrote:
brettnchrism wrote:Win one lose one. I made a mistake and went against the H4 down trend took a long position on the long z line. Lessons learned just wanted to post for any feed back.

[align=center][/align]


and noticing that and acknowledging that is a good thing


it wasnt so much the h4 downtrend, but the h4 down momo bar you bought into.

basically they fooled you by showing momo on the h1-- which looked like it was going to go up-- but they formed the h1 bars like that right back into the huge h4 down momo bar--- which was a short setup.

your trade could have just as easily worked-- but odds are the h4 momo wins that battle----- most times

[url=http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=24698#24698 :idea: MightyOne :idea: [/url] wrote: That is a common mistake Brettnchrism :cry:

From the highest price on that chart follow these steps:

1. look at the size of all the bearish momentum bars.

2. Look at the size of the bullish momentum bars

3. look at the size of the non momentum that was followed by bearish momentum.

If it is difficult to tell the non momentum bars that preceded the bearish momentum from the bullish "momentum" then chances are that what you were considering momentum was not despite being larger than the prev. candle.

These methods are not technical patterns that you can blindly follow; they require much thought and must be considered in the context of big picture.

If you are trading the hourly you need to check the multiple hourly momentum at the very least before trading in the hourly direction.


PS: My computer blew up and will not even recognize on button. That is what I get for connecting too many wires to it...
I wanted to buy a new computer anyways, but I wasn't expecting to lose all my programs, files, & pictures :shock:


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