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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:36 am

In my inbox ( it's about video poker and NO, I don't play)

The Undeniable Truth About "Positive Expectation Play"

Here's a subject that gets brought up again and again and still, so may players just don't get it. Sure, some don't want to get it and instead would rather have the word "positive" simply mean "automatically win over any amount of time", but many others remained confused. Today, that will change.

Theory is a nice basis to begin your understanding of just about anything, but the only thing that truly means anything is reality. Look at it this way: You go to the casino and they're offering what calculates out to be a 104% play on all 10/6 DDB dollar machines. So what does that mean....REALLY mean?

First, it means if you're there because of the "promotion" then you probably brought more money than usual. It also means you generally lose. Playing however and whenever casino managers WANT you to is one of the biggest mistakes made by video poker players everywhere. TO BE CONSISTENTLY SUCCESSFUL, YOU HAVE TO LEARN TO PLAY ENTIRELY ON YOUR OWN TERMS, WHEREVER AND WHENEVER YOU CHOOSE TO. You will never be successful if you allow the casinos lead you around by your wallet.

When people or casinos tell you about a "positive play" you should already know that does not mean you'll win. In fact, most people are smart enough to know that they'll lose in these type situations over 70% of the time. Those who sell optimal-play/long-term strategy want you to believe that spending your lifetime sitting ONLY at theoretically >100% machines will yield a tiny overal winner by the time you step into your grave. Big whoop to that---even if it were true!

But these people mislead you because they want your money so they can keep on playing. When you sit at a machine, for the comparatively short amount of time you are there and regardless of the pay table and/or the slot club benefits you receive, the odds are ALWAYS with the casino and those odds say you will lose. If they weren't and they didn't, then do you think casinos would have video poker machines on their floors - with all those juicy sounding benefits and freebies to just "give away" along with them?

I probably don't need to say this because most or all of you can figure it out on your own, but look at the people who are and have been feeding you this long-term play nonsense over the years: If Jean Scott were such a winner and were so very frugal, would she, at her age, REALLY not need the income from books and software programs and speaking engagements and whatever else, in order to keep on gambling? Would Bob Dancer need to still be working as a consultant on both sides of the street and teach and sell and sell and sell if he were REALLY winning with the math? Would Dan Paymar need to re-write the same books over and over and over again, and would Skip Hughes STILL be needing to charge ridiculous fees for his plethora of services? Seems to me, all that "winning" just didn't provide these gurus with the easy lifestyle they all tried to make the masses believe they were getting from being such successful gamblers, now did it.

The point here is to learn when & what misrepresentations are coming your way. No casino is ever going to allow any gambler to have true "edge" without making a serious error, and that doesn't happen very often. Greater than 100% plays sound lucrative, but that's in theory only and within unattainable limitations. We are all only at the machines for a certain amount of time, and REALITY--not THEORY--is only provided once play is done and never before. Learn how to make the most of it all.

Good Luck!
Rob
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby Humble » Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:14 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:~~ That actually fits pretty well with my own view. People need to have a perceptual filter that matches the way they think. The appropriate perceptual filter for a trader has more to do with how well it fits a trader's mental strategy, his mode of thinking and decision making, than how well it accounts for market activity.
When a person gets to know any perceptual filter deeply, it helps develop his or her intuition. There's no substitute for experience.


Very well put. Teoman's previously mentioned use of the 2 semafor could be a classic example.

teoman
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Postby teoman » Tue Jun 02, 2009 5:36 pm

Thanks for the artıcle.

If a game is random, than it is not beatable.

this article is refusing science and math, not accepting 2 multiple by 2 is =4 .

Blackjack is beatable and proven by math.

Those guys are not playing at the casinos because they are blacklisted.

And they continue their life with seminars etc.

But this article is given an example about videomachines and for sure a counter will never play with that.


If we will not have rules to obey then how we are going to trade, and what are those indicators for.

And without mental strategy how we can find a solution to beat the game.And why TheRumpledOne is wirting his own indicators.and try to beat the game..

Everything will come with observation...and stick to their game plan..

Sometimes we won just because of good luck, but if we were not trying to predict, with our system ,how we can trade.

No need system, no need mental strategy then what we need to trade...

Regards...

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Postby razorboy » Tue Jun 02, 2009 5:50 pm

lots of people confuse volatile with random.

Blackjack - just have to eliminate the low value cards from the deck - and hope that anyone else playing at your table isn't counting as well - but that is a different story


teoman wrote:Thanks for the artıcle.

If a game is random, than it is not beatable.

this article is refusing science and math, not accepting 2 multiple by 2 is =4 .

Blackjack is beatable and proven by math.

Those guys are not playing at the casinos because they are blacklisted.

And they continue their life with seminars etc.

But this article is given an example about videomachines and for sure a counter will never play with that.


If we will not have rules to obey then how we are going to trade, and what are those indicators for.

And without mental strategy how we can find a solution to beat the game.And why TheRumpledOne is wirting his own indicators.and try to beat the game..

Everything will come with observation...and stick to their game plan..

Sometimes we won just because of good luck, but if we were not trying to predict, with our system ,how we can trade.

No need system, no need mental strategy then what we need to trade...

Regards...
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

teoman
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Postby teoman » Tue Jun 02, 2009 7:46 pm

Last Lesson from Prof. Randy Pausch

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x974xc_son-ders_news

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Postby PTG » Tue Jun 02, 2009 8:56 pm

teoman wrote:Last Lesson from Prof. Randy Pausch

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x974xc_son-ders_news


Thanks much for that. =D>

Humble
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Postby Humble » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:10 pm

+1
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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Postby rowdy » Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:12 am

teoman wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:How in the world can an indicator tell you that THIS PRICE is the zigzag point and price is going to reverse?.




Yes for sure, nobody can know the future unless he has a time machine.

But you do believe statics as a master and an engineer must believe also..


2-2 semafor has the most probability to make money.

I do not need to be at the table all the time, When I have an edge , I put my money with kelly ratio,

This is how I start making a boatload of money, and I am sticking on that...


Thanks for helping me to open my eyes...


Best Regards...


OK teoman, be the man.

I am short GC after a 2-2. I have a boat and I am ready for it to be full of money :D
All I need is Supply and Demand

teoman
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Postby teoman » Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:18 am

rowdy wrote:
teoman wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:How in the world can an indicator tell you that THIS PRICE is the zigzag point and price is going to reverse?.




Yes for sure, nobody can know the future unless he has a time machine.

But you do believe statics as a master and an engineer must believe also..


2-2 semafor has the most probability to make money.

I do not need to be at the table all the time, When I have an edge , I put my money with kelly ratio,

This is how I start making a boatload of money, and I am sticking on that...


Thanks for helping me to open my eyes...


Best Regards...


OK teoman, be the man.

I am short GC after a 2-2. I have a boat and I am ready for it to be full of money :D



this my strategy,you dont have to use my way how to trade, I have a freeedom how invest my money :)

use your system.. please..I am not writing my opinions for someguys have fun of it.
I assume that you know how to use stops..

regrads..

teoman
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Postby teoman » Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:55 am

Here is another pattern observation,

Observation means pattern observation, it does not mean to use it..

when 2/3 band outside the SHI channel, use semafor to take a position..


Image

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