In my inbox ( it's about video poker and NO, I don't play)
The Undeniable Truth About "Positive Expectation Play"
Here's a subject that gets brought up again and again and still, so may players just don't get it. Sure, some don't want to get it and instead would rather have the word "positive" simply mean "automatically win over any amount of time", but many others remained confused. Today, that will change.
Theory is a nice basis to begin your understanding of just about anything, but the only thing that truly means anything is reality. Look at it this way: You go to the casino and they're offering what calculates out to be a 104% play on all 10/6 DDB dollar machines. So what does that mean....REALLY mean?
First, it means if you're there because of the "promotion" then you probably brought more money than usual. It also means you generally lose. Playing however and whenever casino managers WANT you to is one of the biggest mistakes made by video poker players everywhere. TO BE CONSISTENTLY SUCCESSFUL, YOU HAVE TO LEARN TO PLAY ENTIRELY ON YOUR OWN TERMS, WHEREVER AND WHENEVER YOU CHOOSE TO. You will never be successful if you allow the casinos lead you around by your wallet.
When people or casinos tell you about a "positive play" you should already know that does not mean you'll win. In fact, most people are smart enough to know that they'll lose in these type situations over 70% of the time. Those who sell optimal-play/long-term strategy want you to believe that spending your lifetime sitting ONLY at theoretically >100% machines will yield a tiny overal winner by the time you step into your grave. Big whoop to that---even if it were true!
But these people mislead you because they want your money so they can keep on playing. When you sit at a machine, for the comparatively short amount of time you are there and regardless of the pay table and/or the slot club benefits you receive, the odds are ALWAYS with the casino and those odds say you will lose. If they weren't and they didn't, then do you think casinos would have video poker machines on their floors - with all those juicy sounding benefits and freebies to just "give away" along with them?
I probably don't need to say this because most or all of you can figure it out on your own, but look at the people who are and have been feeding you this long-term play nonsense over the years: If Jean Scott were such a winner and were so very frugal, would she, at her age, REALLY not need the income from books and software programs and speaking engagements and whatever else, in order to keep on gambling? Would Bob Dancer need to still be working as a consultant on both sides of the street and teach and sell and sell and sell if he were REALLY winning with the math? Would Dan Paymar need to re-write the same books over and over and over again, and would Skip Hughes STILL be needing to charge ridiculous fees for his plethora of services? Seems to me, all that "winning" just didn't provide these gurus with the easy lifestyle they all tried to make the masses believe they were getting from being such successful gamblers, now did it.
The point here is to learn when & what misrepresentations are coming your way. No casino is ever going to allow any gambler to have true "edge" without making a serious error, and that doesn't happen very often. Greater than 100% plays sound lucrative, but that's in theory only and within unattainable limitations. We are all only at the machines for a certain amount of time, and REALITY--not THEORY--is only provided once play is done and never before. Learn how to make the most of it all.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.