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razorboy
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more of my babbling.........

Postby razorboy » Sat May 30, 2009 8:46 pm

The blue zones are were I see profit still being held - potential moves - the question is...........what is the order.

Price should not move out of a zone/range until all the profit is eliminated.....correct?

There may actually be a sliver of profit remaining below the large blue space at the top - should mark off the top of this trading range. - Just noticed a price gap - not sure if this is an artifact or actual -something to investigate

Insight, insults and gifts are always welcomed. I promise that once I start getting better at this, I will write in more abstract, zen terms............

PS........and a close of a momo bar in to a zone (and preferably beyond an earlier momo bar inthe same direction) that had previously zeroed out indicates the potential for a countermove rather than a correction (price didnt come back to a previous high before going the other way) and then the zeroing out process has to start again.

Image


razorboy wrote:actually, I think it is much less risky than going for 75 pips. I am all about the "+" side of 75 pips...................

75 pips a week tells me you are using a system and probably scalping with huge leverage and big stop losses and not really "reading the market" (hey, if you can do this week in and week out, all the power to you). 650 pips a week with 100 and 200 pip stop loses playing the daily charts a la the james16 group isn't exactly my cup of tea.

650 with a small amount of risk, means you know how read the market properly and have patience to sit and wait for the right time to buy.

I have the patience........still learning how to read things....

The disasters come when I think I have thought that price has stopped going one way, and it hasn't or I think that price is going to go further and it doesn't. Must separate knowing from knowledge as some may say


MightyOne wrote:If you don't want to make 75+ pips per week then there is nothing for me to say now is there ;)

You say that it is more risky, but I am risking less than 19 pips per trade just like every one else here.

Risky is putting your self in the position to lose 19 pips more frequently than is needed to achieve the same daily or weekly result.

"some days I hit those big moves spot on and other times a disaster" -Razorboy

All I can really tell you is that price does move a hundred or hundreds of pips from the daily extremes within & every 24 hours.

Think about that for a second...

Price is doing some thing EVERY DAY and you are missing out on the moves why?

Price will make higher highs and price will make lower lows, but eventually price will not and eventually price will circle the world 9 times heading either North or South.
Last edited by razorboy on Sat May 30, 2009 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby rowdy » Sat May 30, 2009 8:51 pm

teoman wrote:Tradıng ıs like a countıng blackjack game for me.

When you have an edge, put all your money with a kelly ratio , on the table,

When you dont have an edge, leave the table, keep counting the cards...

I only trade with 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION.mq4 with H1

nothing I need more...

Semafor is enough...


Because I need to check to many pairs and futures.I an doing manually now,I want you guys help me to build an alarm
inside of it.


For me edge is only 2-2 semafor comes sequentially.

3-3 or 3-1-1, 3-2-1 means nothing...because it repaints...this is my opinion.


But 2-2 is something different and power of the semafor indicator..


TheRumpledOne has built an alarm inside of this indicator but this alarms when semafor comes.

I need only when 2-2 semafor comes sequentially.


How I trade is, when 2-2 semafor ( not 212 or 232 or 33 only 2-2) comes,

I open my position before 20 seconds , and whatever semofor comes other than 2, I close my positions before 20 seconds,

If another 2 comes again 2-2 occurs I change my short positions, to long, and waiting to close with any other semafor.


I kindly request Could someone (or TheRumpledOne) help me put an alarm to this indicator when 2-2 comes sequentially...


Best Regards...


Image


teoman,
Thank you for sharing. I havent been paying enough attention to the 2 Semafors to know but are you saying the 2s dont repaint? I am surprised to hear that if that is the case. I know all to well the 3s and 1s repaint.

If the 2s do repaint then there is chance you will enter a reverse on a breakout candle. When this happens the banks drain me.
All I need is Supply and Demand

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat May 30, 2009 9:09 pm

Are people STILL talking about REPAINT? When are you going to REALIZE that PRICE MOVES!!

How in the world can an indicator tell you that THIS PRICE is the zigzag point and price is going to reverse?

Once again, when you see a semafor appear - LOOK FOR A BREAKOUT FIRST THEN LOOK FOR PRICE TO REVERSE.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby razorboy » Sat May 30, 2009 9:26 pm

repainting isnt the issue here....

i assume that you could do the same thing with any of the semafor pairs - depending on how long you wanted to wait.

thanks for the tip


rowdy wrote:
teoman wrote:Tradıng ıs like a countıng blackjack game for me.

When you have an edge, put all your money with a kelly ratio , on the table,

When you dont have an edge, leave the table, keep counting the cards...

I only trade with 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION.mq4 with H1

nothing I need more...

Semafor is enough...


Because I need to check to many pairs and futures.I an doing manually now,I want you guys help me to build an alarm
inside of it.


For me edge is only 2-2 semafor comes sequentially.

3-3 or 3-1-1, 3-2-1 means nothing...because it repaints...this is my opinion.


But 2-2 is something different and power of the semafor indicator..


TheRumpledOne has built an alarm inside of this indicator but this alarms when semafor comes.

I need only when 2-2 semafor comes sequentially.


How I trade is, when 2-2 semafor ( not 212 or 232 or 33 only 2-2) comes,

I open my position before 20 seconds , and whatever semofor comes other than 2, I close my positions before 20 seconds,

If another 2 comes again 2-2 occurs I change my short positions, to long, and waiting to close with any other semafor.


I kindly request Could someone (or TheRumpledOne) help me put an alarm to this indicator when 2-2 comes sequentially...


Best Regards...


Image


teoman,
Thank you for sharing. I havent been paying enough attention to the 2 Semafors to know but are you saying the 2s dont repaint? I am surprised to hear that if that is the case. I know all to well the 3s and 1s repaint.

If the 2s do repaint then there is chance you will enter a reverse on a breakout candle. When this happens the banks drain me.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby inzider » Sat May 30, 2009 10:50 pm

Hi MO!

I need your advice on a point since i think that your are the only one that can give me an answer whit a reason, not only a ebook one...
I would also apreciate that you respond into an affirmative way, and not into a socratics question opening mind way since i want to be sure about what you think.

Let's try in a short story.

I have approximatly 66% of winner and 33% of losser.
I find that ratio ok, you can comment.

Quick info: I have 15 pips average win, 27 pips average looser. I use 8% SL on a 500$ account so 40$ whit 0.1. Trading GBP/USD here.

My question is about stop loss. I wonder if I would put more winning $ probability on on my side by having a closer SL around let say 19 pips
like your exemple on last post or instead a wide SL like i use 40, even maby a larger one like 50/70 to 250 pips if needed.

I do win $ but 1 lost can wipe all good profit I work for...

The real wonder if would i get more chance to capitalize whit a tight stop loss, or would I have more chance to capitalize whit a larger SL.
I done some nice winning strike, growing that 500$ into 4k, but lost most of it trying to find best SL.... since i haven't find it yet...

In short, what SL would you recommand into my situation and why.

Plz let me know your tough on the subject, and plz be gentle whit my spinning head. Thx alot!
Last edited by inzider on Sat May 30, 2009 11:10 pm, edited 5 times in total.
WB: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

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inzider
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Postby inzider » Sat May 30, 2009 10:50 pm

double...
WB: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun May 31, 2009 1:35 am

Image

inzider, if you put your SL and TP into the risk reward indicator you can see why you are not getting the results you want.

You need to win 71% of the time to break even.

You should be able to SEE that.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby MightyOne » Sun May 31, 2009 6:53 am

As some one who used to use 75-250 pip stops to trade the weekly chart let me tell you that large stops are a waste of time and energy.

It is my belief that a stop loss should be no greater than 20 pips if you are to pull ahead of losses within a trading day.

SL should never be:

1. Less than 3x the spread
2. < 9 pips
3. > 19 pips

BREAK EVEN:

19SL, 13TP, 60% win rate.

PROFITABILITY:

0. Use a smaller stop
1. Liquidate a portion of your position in profit to reduce your average loss
2. Hold for a greater number of pips
3. Increase your win rate
4. Any combination of the above

Position sizing below is set up so that you liquidate 20% of your position at a time reducing your initial risk by >20%.

It is important that you never move your SL choosing instead to reduce risk through scaling out.

Position Sizing (100 to 1 leverage):

(1/3 covers margin and 2/3 covers trading up to 20 losses with a 20p SL)

Multiple of $300:
AccountSize / 60 = MicroLotsTraded

Multiple of $3,000:
AccountSize / 600 = MiniLotsTraded

Multiple of $30,000:
AccountSize / 6,000 = StandardLotsTraded

Multiple of $300,000:
AccountSize / 60,000 = FullLotsTraded


The answer of each are the dollars required per 5 lots:

Micro:
(5,000 * %MarginReq * 2) + 200

200 = 20 losses, 300 = 30 losses, 400 = 40 losses.
What is the maximum number of losses that you usually accumulate before moving up to the next level?

Mini:
(50,000 * %MarginReq * 2) + 2,000

2000 = 20 losses, 3000 = 30 losses, etc

Standard:
(500,000 * %MarginReq * 2) + 20,000

Full:
(5,000,000 * %MarginReq * 2) + 200,000

Example (25 to 1 leverage trading standard lots)

(500,000 * 0.04 * 2) + 20,000 = $60,000

$60,000 per 5 standard lots




Follow these guide lines and you should pull out ahead...

inzider wrote:Hi MO!

I need your advice on a point since i think that your are the only one that can give me an answer whit a reason, not only a ebook one...
I would also apreciate that you respond into an affirmative way, and not into a socratics question opening mind way since i want to be sure about what you think.

Let's try in a short story.

I have approximatly 66% of winner and 33% of losser.
I find that ratio ok, you can comment.

Quick info: I have 15 pips average win, 27 pips average looser. I use 8% SL on a 500$ account so 40$ whit 0.1. Trading GBP/USD here.

My question is about stop loss. I wonder if I would put more winning $ probability on on my side by having a closer SL around let say 19 pips
like your exemple on last post or instead a wide SL like i use 40, even maby a larger one like 50/70 to 250 pips if needed.

I do win $ but 1 lost can wipe all good profit I work for...

The real wonder if would i get more chance to capitalize whit a tight stop loss, or would I have more chance to capitalize whit a larger SL.
I done some nice winning strike, growing that 500$ into 4k, but lost most of it trying to find best SL.... since i haven't find it yet...

In short, what SL would you recommand into my situation and why.

Plz let me know your tough on the subject, and plz be gentle whit my spinning head. Thx alot!
Last edited by MightyOne on Sun May 31, 2009 6:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.

teoman
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Postby teoman » Sun May 31, 2009 7:41 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:How in the world can an indicator tell you that THIS PRICE is the zigzag point and price is going to reverse?.




Yes for sure, nobody can know the future unless he has a time machine.

But you do believe statics as a master and an engineer must believe also..


2-2 semafor has the most probability to make money.

I do not need to be at the table all the time, When I have an edge , I put my money with kelly ratio,

This is how I start making a boatload of money, and I am sticking on that...


Thanks for helping me to open my eyes...


Best Regards...

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Postby Marron » Sun May 31, 2009 1:04 pm

Hello!
i observe this tro method. I am impressed of yours results, but when I try to play myself I've got only ... Loses. I need your help for inderstand this method. I've installed rev 007 indices. I look at h1 semafor ok. After I'm goint intto 15mand... I give un example. h1 is long m15 is long too. candle is braeaking a new resistance point. the triggers a for exemple 1.4035 resist point and 1.4030 for SHORT enter. H1 and m15 are long so I don't enter for a short positon? On the other side my trigger for long positon is many pips lower f.ex 1.3960. I must wait for a moment when a cours take this 1.3960 for a long position? I can't understand this mechanism. h1 and m15 long so when I must enter? Help me please!

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