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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:34 am

Congrats Uncle MO!
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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Brookmyre
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Postby Brookmyre » Thu Jan 14, 2010 4:33 am

Ditto :)
I've learned from my mistakes and I'm sure I can repeat them exactly - Peter Cook

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:30 pm

Braathen wrote:Didnt know where to post this .. nla is choppy so i hope u dont mind me posting a few things MO.. if u do you know where to flame meh ;)
So completly back to basics for me. This is my interpretation of recent GU activity... looks like ive been overthinking this all along.. total basics i know and prob a waste of posting space but any comments would be appriciated .. Its the build up to fridays nfp news.. Hit the low area from the christmas/newyear move.. simple 15m chart with 1hour candles layover. 1 = body in the direction of profit. 2 = wick in the direction of loss.
first one was iffy imo but the second 1h 1,2 was nice and the 15m to confirm holding

Image

Maybe someone who traded this could give there story.


The chart is moving sideways.

Where you have the first "2" marked the chart
begins to show activity when you compare to
the previous body sizes.

The chart then goes dead with extreme
quietness followed by four bodies...

bullish, bearish, bearish, bullish

that could only be considered activity after
extreme quietness.

There is another 3-bar period of extreme
quietness and the chart closes a bullish bar
that is larger than all the previous candles.

Based on this information what can you conclude?

Closed bodies tell a story that can only be read
through making comparisons.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:36 pm

tmanbone wrote:Congrats Uncle MO!


Brookmyre wrote:Ditto :)


Thanks guys :)

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:53 pm

Image

Per $5,000

RP SIZE MaxRisk

025: 08 to 1 [02%]
050: 06 to 1 [03%]
100: 04 to 1 [04%] <---SL between 50 & 100 so leverage is 4 to 1.
111: 3.6 to 1 [04%]
125: 3.2 to 1 [04%]
142: 2.8 to 1 [04%]
166: 2.4 to 1 [04%]
200: 02 to 1 [04%]
250: 1.6 to 1 [04%]
333: 1.2 to 1 [04%]
500: 0.8 to 1 [04%]
1000: 0.4 to 1 [04%]

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franck
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Postby franck » Fri Jan 15, 2010 1:58 pm

MightyOne wrote:I am not ignoring anyone, I have been busy with family and friends.

My baby sister had her baby today btw :P

Feel free to post about anything and I will start answering in the near future :wink:

PS: I have been using the range of the 2nd largest of the last 3 candles as the range for division; averages have been giving me numbers that are either too large or too small.

Another thing I do is wait for the entry candle to close and then liquidate shortly after breakout (hopefully there is a BO).

What else...

I've been trading smaller position sizes on the first entry and reversing with a full position if stopped + other small adjustments based on what I see working.

I just

buy if price is going up

sell if price is going down

&

reverse instead of exiting.


Don't feel like you have to do things as I am doing them.

These adjustments were made on the weekly charts NOT small time frame charts like the 8 hour ;)




MAYBE MaybE maYbE

1) i put up TRO2009 Breakcount UI and check the statistics of the timeframe where there is good pips with good %. With the timeframe to my appetite, i put up the pips for x average (?smaller better, but more unstable, default 24).

2) more important factor = holding period to target. high target reduce probability. long holding increase probability. long holding also increase stop probability.

3) direction : open to close each day average 100 pips. to go up 100 points, the only way for price to go there is making new high and vice versa. when i zoom in the bar, usually only ~20-30% of the bars (=time) contribute to the high/low. 100/bar division *20-30% = maybe significant pips/bar.

4) for price to move from A to B, by new H or new L, there are wicks on each bar unfortunately. the wicks are available almost all the time each bar from minute 1 to yearly chart. if i took the time scale away, what are these wicks? :) in addition, if my stop loss can't survive wick to wick, how i am going to bring forward to the next bar realistically to capture the stats above.

5) thanks to MO ;) 1) range 2) correction 3) color. and most important TRO 1) the stats 2) it is not what i trade, but HOW i trade that is more important.

I will be most enlightened when TRO share more on the HOW.
* anyOne can be prOfitable tradING ANY line. see it?

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:36 pm

franck wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I am not ignoring anyone, I have been busy with family and friends.

My baby sister had her baby today btw :P

Feel free to post about anything and I will start answering in the near future :wink:

PS: I have been using the range of the 2nd largest of the last 3 candles as the range for division; averages have been giving me numbers that are either too large or too small.

Another thing I do is wait for the entry candle to close and then liquidate shortly after breakout (hopefully there is a BO).

What else...

I've been trading smaller position sizes on the first entry and reversing with a full position if stopped + other small adjustments based on what I see working.

I just

buy if price is going up

sell if price is going down

&

reverse instead of exiting.


Don't feel like you have to do things as I am doing them.

These adjustments were made on the weekly charts NOT small time frame charts like the 8 hour ;)




MAYBE MaybE maYbE

1) i put up TRO2009 Breakcount UI and check the statistics of the timeframe where there is good pips with good %. With the timeframe to my appetite, i put up the pips for x average (?smaller better, but more unstable, default 24).

2) more important factor = holding period to target. high target reduce probability. long holding increase probability. long holding also increase stop probability.

3) direction : open to close each day average 100 pips. to go up 100 points, the only way for price to go there is making new high and vice versa. when i zoom in the bar, usually only ~20-30% of the bars (=time) contribute to the high/low. 100/bar division *20-30% = maybe significant pips/bar.

4) for price to move from A to B, by new H or new L, there are wicks on each bar unfortunately. the wicks are available almost all the time each bar from minute 1 to yearly chart. if i took the time scale away, what are these wicks? :) in addition, if my stop loss can't survive wick to wick, how i am going to bring forward to the next bar realistically to capture the stats above.

5) thanks to MO ;) 1) range 2) correction 3) color. and most important TRO 1) the stats 2) it is not what i trade, but HOW i trade that is more important.

I will be most enlightened when TRO share more on the HOW.


http://www.mbtrading.com/f/MBTradingFut ... yGuide.pdf

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jan 15, 2010 8:36 pm

"I will be most enlightened when TRO share more on the HOW."

I trade like a RAT, that's how.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

aliassmith
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Postby aliassmith » Sat Jan 16, 2010 1:57 pm

MightyOne wrote:
franck wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I am not ignoring anyone, I have been busy with family and friends.

My baby sister had her baby today btw :P

Feel free to post about anything and I will start answering in the near future :wink:

PS: I have been using the range of the 2nd largest of the last 3 candles as the range for division; averages have been giving me numbers that are either too large or too small.

Another thing I do is wait for the entry candle to close and then liquidate shortly after breakout (hopefully there is a BO).

What else...

I've been trading smaller position sizes on the first entry and reversing with a full position if stopped + other small adjustments based on what I see working.

I just

buy if price is going up

sell if price is going down

&

reverse instead of exiting.


Don't feel like you have to do things as I am doing them.

These adjustments were made on the weekly charts NOT small time frame charts like the 8 hour ;)




MAYBE MaybE maYbE

1) i put up TRO2009 Breakcount UI and check the statistics of the timeframe where there is good pips with good %. With the timeframe to my appetite, i put up the pips for x average (?smaller better, but more unstable, default 24).

2) more important factor = holding period to target. high target reduce probability. long holding increase probability. long holding also increase stop probability.

3) direction : open to close each day average 100 pips. to go up 100 points, the only way for price to go there is making new high and vice versa. when i zoom in the bar, usually only ~20-30% of the bars (=time) contribute to the high/low. 100/bar division *20-30% = maybe significant pips/bar.

4) for price to move from A to B, by new H or new L, there are wicks on each bar unfortunately. the wicks are available almost all the time each bar from minute 1 to yearly chart. if i took the time scale away, what are these wicks? :) in addition, if my stop loss can't survive wick to wick, how i am going to bring forward to the next bar realistically to capture the stats above.

5) thanks to MO ;) 1) range 2) correction 3) color. and most important TRO 1) the stats 2) it is not what i trade, but HOW i trade that is more important.

I will be most enlightened when TRO share more on the HOW.


http://www.mbtrading.com/f/MBTradingFut ... yGuide.pdf


I think MightyOne is trying to be a comedian :lol:

BTW: Congratz Uncle MO
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Sat Jan 16, 2010 3:49 pm

Congrats Uncle MO :P

Image

MightyOne wrote: The chart then goes dead with extreme
quietness followed by four bodies...

bullish, bearish, bearish, bullish

that could only be considered activity after
extreme quietness.


MO, just to be on the same page, would this be where I marked up #2 on the chart?


MightyOne wrote:There is another 3-bar period of extreme
quietness and the chart closes a bullish bar
that is larger than all the previous candles.


And this is at #3 right?


MightyOne wrote:Based on this information what can you conclude?


EQ follows activity follows EQ follows activity and so on and so forth. So knowing this we can be patient, wait for EQ to end then trade?? Razz me if I'm wrong :shock:
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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