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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:17 am

newschool wrote:Momentum = mass (volume) * velocity (price movement).

Why dont you have volume on your charts MO ?


That would be a waste of space....

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Postby franck » Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:58 am

aliassmith wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
franck wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I am not ignoring anyone, I have been busy with family and friends.

My baby sister had her baby today btw :P

Feel free to post about anything and I will start answering in the near future :wink:

PS: I have been using the range of the 2nd largest of the last 3 candles as the range for division; averages have been giving me numbers that are either too large or too small.

Another thing I do is wait for the entry candle to close and then liquidate shortly after breakout (hopefully there is a BO).

What else...

I've been trading smaller position sizes on the first entry and reversing with a full position if stopped + other small adjustments based on what I see working.

I just

buy if price is going up

sell if price is going down

&

reverse instead of exiting.


Don't feel like you have to do things as I am doing them.

These adjustments were made on the weekly charts NOT small time frame charts like the 8 hour ;)




MAYBE MaybE maYbE

1) i put up TRO2009 Breakcount UI and check the statistics of the timeframe where there is good pips with good %. With the timeframe to my appetite, i put up the pips for x average (?smaller better, but more unstable, default 24).

2) more important factor = holding period to target. high target reduce probability. long holding increase probability. long holding also increase stop probability.

3) direction : open to close each day average 100 pips. to go up 100 points, the only way for price to go there is making new high and vice versa. when i zoom in the bar, usually only ~20-30% of the bars (=time) contribute to the high/low. 100/bar division *20-30% = maybe significant pips/bar.

4) for price to move from A to B, by new H or new L, there are wicks on each bar unfortunately. the wicks are available almost all the time each bar from minute 1 to yearly chart. if i took the time scale away, what are these wicks? :) in addition, if my stop loss can't survive wick to wick, how i am going to bring forward to the next bar realistically to capture the stats above.

5) thanks to MO ;) 1) range 2) correction 3) color. and most important TRO 1) the stats 2) it is not what i trade, but HOW i trade that is more important.

I will be most enlightened when TRO share more on the HOW.


http://www.mbtrading.com/f/MBTradingFut ... yGuide.pdf


I think MightyOne is trying to be a comedian :lol:

BTW: Congratz Uncle MO



i was given what i asked :) no stress.

some of the pieces i collected from kreslik are

1) since all loss or profit starts from M1 (opening of a trade). How long do i hold? eg [from MO] exit when M5 closed against my open - is very good to prevent the loss from growing in m15/h1 bar, but i hv to make sure i hv all the beers/food nearby while glueing to the computer. [from TRO] a RAT rather similar to this, but uses it as a beginning of the profit.

2) any LINE drawn into the future is a probability (this puzzles me too, ie every line i draw using TRO_count into the future shows a profit potential with about similar distribution, but within a "range" timeframe), but every bar to bar has a WICK too. The longer i hold the bigger my wicks can be before price continue. Do i reach my target before the wicks? eg. [from TRO] it is best just to take 10 pips (5pips is better), or 1-2 loss, 3-5 breakeven, then 10 etc, since it is a matter of how much dollar i put into the bank and NOT being accurate right/wrong.

Maybe a detailed estimation of stop loss probability by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levy_skew_ ... stribution, will be a good addition to the 2010 donational indicators :) it is like having the TRO BOCount_UI combined for all/?customised timeframes. to keep it simple, i find using BO_count on H4/above has been good.

3) Post momentum [from MO] is a good starting point, esp combine with BOCount_UI to find the "right" timeframe to my appetite. i see it most clearly when i plot the the smaller timeframe MO bars onto a higher timeframe.

4) When i looked into smaller timeframe of the line "zline" it is usually the place where the technicals termed it "support turning into resistance and vice versa". hence, the line maybe be estimated by looking into m5/m15. The line maybe inside the MO bars itself only to continue the next bar without a wick. Within a timeframe, this usually coincide with a TRO's sweetspotgold line/nearby.

5) Previous candle the truth VS current candle deceptions. My only Q today - MO, is there a way i can avoid being deceived prior the closed of the bar? a closed of H4 has an average ranged of 50+ pips, and smaller timeframe closes are more deceiving. Looks like i am back to square one :) correction vs reversal. My impression is that there isn't but to take adjust my risk.

Thanks for all the sharing.
* anyOne can be prOfitable tradING ANY line. see it?

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Postby pablo101 » Mon Jan 18, 2010 10:55 am

MightyOne wrote:
pablo101 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
pablo101 wrote:Congrats Uncle MO :P

Image

MightyOne wrote: The chart then goes dead with extreme
quietness followed by four bodies...

bullish, bearish, bearish, bullish

that could only be considered activity after
extreme quietness.


MO, just to be on the same page, would this be where I marked up #2 on the chart?


MightyOne wrote:There is another 3-bar period of extreme
quietness and the chart closes a bullish bar
that is larger than all the previous candles.


And this is at #3 right?


MightyOne wrote:Based on this information what can you conclude?


EQ follows activity follows EQ follows activity and so on and so forth. So knowing this we can be patient, wait for EQ to end then trade?? Razz me if I'm wrong :shock:


The answer to your questions is YES

The reply to your answer is NO


LOL, nicely worded :)

Any hints?

Accumulation and distribution?


Smallest to largest:

EQ, non-momentum/activity, momentum

Something like this:

Image


I'm not ignoring you Mightyone, just sleeping on it to see if I can make head or tails of anything.

So far I have this:

"EQ, non-momentum/activity, momentum" ... ok, I see this and it happens all the time in cycles.

Then you hinted:

"Post Momentum trader" ... so i think it goes back to who's in profit and how do we take profit away from them.

oh boy, I hope I get an A plus here :wink:
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 21, 2010 2:21 pm

A friend forwarded this to me:

Dear Valued Customer,

As many of you are aware, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on January 13, 2010 that it is seeking public comment on proposed regulations concerning retail Forex trading.

As part of the proposed regulations, it is stated: "leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation," which means 10:1 leverage would be the maximum amount allowed for all Forex traders in the U.S.

An example of how the proposed regulatory restrictions would affect a major currency pair appears below:
Maximum Leverage under Current Regulations Maximum Leverage under Proposed CFTC Changes
USD/CHF USD/CHF
100:1 leverage (one percent) 10:1 leverage (10 percent)
1 lot (100,000) 1 lot (100,000)
Margin requirement: $1,000 Margin requirement: $10,000

We stand behind the belief that you should be given the freedom and right to choose the amount of leverage that is appropriate for your individual desired risk, and that this basic principle of 'choice' is in jeopardy by the proposed CFTC regulations.

If you feel strongly about the proposal, we encourage you to help determine the outcome of these proposed regulations. You can help make an impact by sending comments directly to the CFTC at: secretary@cftc.gov.

Please include 'Regulation of Retail Forex' in the subject line of your message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.

You can also submit your comments by any of the following methods (include above ID number):

* Fax: (202) 418-5521
* Mail: David Stawick, Secretary Commodity
Futures Trading Commision 1155 21st Street, N.W.,
Washington, DC 20581
* Courier: Use the same as mail above.

In the upcoming days, Interbank FX and the rest of the U.S. Forex Dealer Coalition will be releasing a more formal opinion about the proposed changes. Please feel free to read further details about the regulation on the CFTC website by clicking here. In the interim, we encourage you to voice your opinions to the CFTC and your local U.S. representative.

As always, we want the best for our traders. We hope you?ll join forces with us to prohibit the proposed leverage requirements.

The Interbank FX Team



Will regulators ever just leave us the f-k alone?

10 to 1?

Seriously?!

High leverage gives you the power to maintain your position size after losing 40% or more of your account while trading with low leverage; that in its self is reason enough to keep high leverage.

High leverage allows you to keep most of your money in your checking account and take checks more often.

High leverage only hurts a loser and they are going to lose all their money anyways...

Lets tell the CFTC what we told FINRA

FK OFF!

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Postby aliassmith » Thu Jan 21, 2010 3:33 pm

MightyOne wrote:A friend forwarded this to me:

Dear Valued Customer,

As many of you are aware, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on January 13, 2010 that it is seeking public comment on proposed regulations concerning retail Forex trading.

As part of the proposed regulations, it is stated: "leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation," which means 10:1 leverage would be the maximum amount allowed for all Forex traders in the U.S.

An example of how the proposed regulatory restrictions would affect a major currency pair appears below:
Maximum Leverage under Current Regulations Maximum Leverage under Proposed CFTC Changes
USD/CHF USD/CHF
100:1 leverage (one percent) 10:1 leverage (10 percent)
1 lot (100,000) 1 lot (100,000)
Margin requirement: $1,000 Margin requirement: $10,000

We stand behind the belief that you should be given the freedom and right to choose the amount of leverage that is appropriate for your individual desired risk, and that this basic principle of 'choice' is in jeopardy by the proposed CFTC regulations.

If you feel strongly about the proposal, we encourage you to help determine the outcome of these proposed regulations. You can help make an impact by sending comments directly to the CFTC at: secretary@cftc.gov.

Please include 'Regulation of Retail Forex' in the subject line of your message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.

You can also submit your comments by any of the following methods (include above ID number):

* Fax: (202) 418-5521
* Mail: David Stawick, Secretary Commodity
Futures Trading Commision 1155 21st Street, N.W.,
Washington, DC 20581
* Courier: Use the same as mail above.

In the upcoming days, Interbank FX and the rest of the U.S. Forex Dealer Coalition will be releasing a more formal opinion about the proposed changes. Please feel free to read further details about the regulation on the CFTC website by clicking here. In the interim, we encourage you to voice your opinions to the CFTC and your local U.S. representative.

As always, we want the best for our traders. We hope you?ll join forces with us to prohibit the proposed leverage requirements.

The Interbank FX Team



Will regulators ever just leave us the f-k alone?

10 to 1?

Seriously?!

High leverage gives you the power to maintain your position size after losing 40% or more of your account while trading with low leverage; that in its self is reason enough to keep high leverage.

High leverage allows you to keep most of your money in your checking account and take checks more often.

High leverage only hurts a loser and they are going to lose all their money anyways...

Lets tell the CFTC what we told FINRA

FK OFF!


I sent my response to them a few days ago. I told them that they are
only doing this because too many people are moving out of "Futures"
into currencies and they are trying to protect "THEIR" interest
groups.

That is like telling people:

If you earn $700 a week at your job you can only buy one carton of
orange juice this week. It is for your own protection.

Leverage and low entry costs to test ideas is why I chose FX :(
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 21, 2010 4:42 pm

aliassmith wrote:
MightyOne wrote:A friend forwarded this to me:

Dear Valued Customer,

As many of you are aware, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on January 13, 2010 that it is seeking public comment on proposed regulations concerning retail Forex trading.

As part of the proposed regulations, it is stated: "leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation," which means 10:1 leverage would be the maximum amount allowed for all Forex traders in the U.S.

An example of how the proposed regulatory restrictions would affect a major currency pair appears below:
Maximum Leverage under Current Regulations Maximum Leverage under Proposed CFTC Changes
USD/CHF USD/CHF
100:1 leverage (one percent) 10:1 leverage (10 percent)
1 lot (100,000) 1 lot (100,000)
Margin requirement: $1,000 Margin requirement: $10,000

We stand behind the belief that you should be given the freedom and right to choose the amount of leverage that is appropriate for your individual desired risk, and that this basic principle of 'choice' is in jeopardy by the proposed CFTC regulations.

If you feel strongly about the proposal, we encourage you to help determine the outcome of these proposed regulations. You can help make an impact by sending comments directly to the CFTC at: secretary@cftc.gov.

Please include 'Regulation of Retail Forex' in the subject line of your message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.

You can also submit your comments by any of the following methods (include above ID number):

* Fax: (202) 418-5521
* Mail: David Stawick, Secretary Commodity
Futures Trading Commision 1155 21st Street, N.W.,
Washington, DC 20581
* Courier: Use the same as mail above.

In the upcoming days, Interbank FX and the rest of the U.S. Forex Dealer Coalition will be releasing a more formal opinion about the proposed changes. Please feel free to read further details about the regulation on the CFTC website by clicking here. In the interim, we encourage you to voice your opinions to the CFTC and your local U.S. representative.

As always, we want the best for our traders. We hope you?ll join forces with us to prohibit the proposed leverage requirements.

The Interbank FX Team



Will regulators ever just leave us the f-k alone?

10 to 1?

Seriously?!

High leverage gives you the power to maintain your position size after losing 40% or more of your account while trading with low leverage; that in its self is reason enough to keep high leverage.

High leverage allows you to keep most of your money in your checking account and take checks more often.

High leverage only hurts a loser and they are going to lose all their money anyways...

Lets tell the CFTC what we told FINRA

FK OFF!


I sent my response to them a few days ago. I told them that they are
only doing this because too many people are moving out of "Futures"
into currencies and they are trying to protect "THEIR" interest
groups.

That is like telling people:

If you earn $700 a week at your job you can only buy one carton of
orange juice this week. It is for your own protection.

Leverage and low entry costs to test ideas is why I chose FX :(



Instead of attacking us they could:

1. Make futures a 24/5 market.

2. Reduce contract sizes to 1 oz, 1 bushel, etc

If they did that then they would get all the action that they can handle.

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Postby aliassmith » Thu Jan 21, 2010 5:14 pm

MightyOne wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
MightyOne wrote:A friend forwarded this to me:

Dear Valued Customer,

As many of you are aware, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on January 13, 2010 that it is seeking public comment on proposed regulations concerning retail Forex trading.

As part of the proposed regulations, it is stated: "leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation," which means 10:1 leverage would be the maximum amount allowed for all Forex traders in the U.S.

An example of how the proposed regulatory restrictions would affect a major currency pair appears below:
Maximum Leverage under Current Regulations Maximum Leverage under Proposed CFTC Changes
USD/CHF USD/CHF
100:1 leverage (one percent) 10:1 leverage (10 percent)
1 lot (100,000) 1 lot (100,000)
Margin requirement: $1,000 Margin requirement: $10,000

We stand behind the belief that you should be given the freedom and right to choose the amount of leverage that is appropriate for your individual desired risk, and that this basic principle of 'choice' is in jeopardy by the proposed CFTC regulations.

If you feel strongly about the proposal, we encourage you to help determine the outcome of these proposed regulations. You can help make an impact by sending comments directly to the CFTC at: secretary@cftc.gov.

Please include 'Regulation of Retail Forex' in the subject line of your message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.

You can also submit your comments by any of the following methods (include above ID number):

* Fax: (202) 418-5521
* Mail: David Stawick, Secretary Commodity
Futures Trading Commision 1155 21st Street, N.W.,
Washington, DC 20581
* Courier: Use the same as mail above.

In the upcoming days, Interbank FX and the rest of the U.S. Forex Dealer Coalition will be releasing a more formal opinion about the proposed changes. Please feel free to read further details about the regulation on the CFTC website by clicking here. In the interim, we encourage you to voice your opinions to the CFTC and your local U.S. representative.

As always, we want the best for our traders. We hope you?ll join forces with us to prohibit the proposed leverage requirements.

The Interbank FX Team



Will regulators ever just leave us the f-k alone?

10 to 1?

Seriously?!

High leverage gives you the power to maintain your position size after losing 40% or more of your account while trading with low leverage; that in its self is reason enough to keep high leverage.

High leverage allows you to keep most of your money in your checking account and take checks more often.

High leverage only hurts a loser and they are going to lose all their money anyways...

Lets tell the CFTC what we told FINRA

FK OFF!


I sent my response to them a few days ago. I told them that they are
only doing this because too many people are moving out of "Futures"
into currencies and they are trying to protect "THEIR" interest
groups.

That is like telling people:

If you earn $700 a week at your job you can only buy one carton of
orange juice this week. It is for your own protection.

Leverage and low entry costs to test ideas is why I chose FX :(



Instead of attacking us they could:

1. Make futures a 24/5 market.

2. Reduce contract sizes to 1 oz, 1 bushel, etc

If they did that then they would get all the action that they can handle.


Interesting ideas, but they (meaning idiots in charge) almost always make
the wrong choices. Protect the big multi-million dollar traders and screw
the little guy. How about nudging the leverage and not just hacking it to $hit.

I would like to stay with the broker I use in the USA.

EDIT: When I traded the ES it only took me about $500 margin per
contract. 1 tick = $12.50. So one lot EUR/USD is $10,000 at one tick
= $10. interesting comparison.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Postby pablo101 » Fri Jan 22, 2010 1:15 am

aliassmith wrote:they are only doing this because too many people are moving out of "Futures" into currencies and they are trying to protect "THEIR" interest
groups(


Seriously, is this the general gist of this move?

I don't know the detailed intricacies of american politics but this recent 10:1 proposal seems rotten to the core :(

Keep fighting it, there's victory in numbers
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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Postby fx_disciple » Fri Jan 22, 2010 3:10 am

very suck to have a 10:1 leverage. I don't quite understand the reasoning behind it (as I don't live in the US), but if the volume traded on the futures depleted while the fx is leaping then it must be it. after all, the exchanges are big businesses. talking about competition...less than 6 months 2 times decrease.

so what are the options for the US fx traders outside the motherland if "they" manage to get their way in once more decreasing the leverage?

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Postby MightyOne » Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:51 am

Noticed large bullish bodies with small lower wicks in the recent past history on the GBPJPY.

You know what that means:

Image

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