Well... I hope these facts make me more cautious to start building up my account.
PTG wrote:cfabian wrote:You see those 2 candles as increasing momentum? I saw them as pivots were up move was failing on 2 consecutive candles, so I was waiting to go short with H1 short move... I did but lasted 4 pips, and then stopped me.PTG wrote:cfabian wrote:Thanks PTG for your explanation, I have watched some of Seiden's videos. It is hard to grasp everything and remember it during the battle.
I should've waited for a confirmation candle in my direction. Darn!!!!
Thanks for posting your trade and your question.
In hindsight everything is easy. I actually could have invented that saying
Apart from the supply zone thing, the H1 overlay with those two dreaded candles inside indicated increase of momentum where you'd like to see the opposite I suppose.
In general one should have rules for as many situations as possible so that you know what to do when a certain event occurs. All the blanks have to be filled in upfront. That makes the difference between getting in the train and take a ride or getting in front of the train and get squashed
I have started to use the S/D stuff for swing trading. The advantage is that you can set and forget. Find high probability-low risk entries and plan them upfront. Still working on the intraday though. I have issues being consistent because I haven't completely worked out all the rules yet. Having said that, it is important to let the market tell you the direction it is going so that you know if you have a valid trade. That's where a confirmation candle comes in handy. You would have to define exactly what that means, e.g. a candle that closes beyond the body of the last candle in the previous direction, or beyond 2/3 of the body, or so.
It all comes down to having a plan with an edge and then sticking to it.
I'd like to see Dragon's comment on your question.
Yeah I know what you're saying. But then what was the difference with an hour earlier, when you had almost exactly the same situation with two M15 candles down after an upcandle ?
What I was referring to, is the fact that the H1 overlay in which those two candles are, is more than twice the size of the previous H1 overlay. To me that doesn't sound like it improves the odds because long momentum increased.
In order to go short on a breakdown like this without having the market prove to you that it does indeed intend to go south sounds risky to me. In other words, why not let price go south and short the mofo on a pullback. I think you take away some risk of catching the falling knife because that is your confirmation. Then all you would need to do is to define what exactly a breakout/breakdown and consecutive pullback is that allows you to take the trade (maybe also on a smaller TF).