lukx zline trading log + cfabian p.35 + adaseb p.48

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PTG
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Postby PTG » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:57 pm

cfabian wrote:Here's the one from last night... Please give comments, I really need your inputs as this particular $#!"#$ trade put my morale on the floor.


Here's my take. A supply zone formed. Actually a very nice one, wish I'd seen it before :cry:
Strong parabolic move on the left (where the zone starts) indicates a strong imbalance between sellers and buyers. Since price didn't stay there very long, odds are that many sellers (the pro's) are left, waiting to sell again at that price. Price creeps up again, hits the zone and drops again.

Read the Sam Seiden stuff on fxstreet.com and watch his webcast transcipts and you will see the point.

To get back to your question: you were short early. It might have worked though, although the parabolic move at the breakout indicates it will return there. If you know where to identify those zones you will have an additional edge.

I used the same principle to go long earlier this afternoon at 1.6088.

Hope this helps.

EDIT: you can't see it in the picture, but it wicked into the zone by two-ish pips (1.62808 / 1.62832)

Image
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Postby johny » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:21 pm

Hi PTG,

Thanks for that great explanation.

Q) What is parabolic move? Can you please draw it on that chart?

Thank you.

Johny

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Postby PTG » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:37 pm

johny wrote:Hi PTG,

Thanks for that great explanation.

Q) What is parabolic move? Can you please draw it on that chart?

Thank you.

Johny


Image

I was referring to the drop in the yellow ellipse. These are strong, emotionally driven moves. They are not sustainable (hate that word :evil: :roll: ) as opposed to staircase-like moves.

If you study charts, you will see that parabolic moves are undone most of the times.

Have you read any of the Sam Seiden articles and watched his video's on fxstreet.com ? If not, you might want to consider spending your weekend on them. It will open your eyes.
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Postby johny » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:47 pm

Thanks PTG. That was very kind of you.

No, I haven't gone through those Sam's stuff yet. I will do it this weekend.

By the way, also thanks for your post about PoP few weeks ago. Almost done with reading it.. Real good stuff in that..

Johny

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Postby cfabian » Fri Jan 22, 2010 8:03 pm

Don't want to be a pain in the butt, but too many candles around and want to make sure I got your point, thus wanted to see if you can redraw your line and add a note?

Please consider inserting the indy I've posted. Is really helpful.... Actually I believe it plots your previous trades as well. This way we can see what you talked about in this chart.

Cheers



cfabian wrote:Like in this 1 I assume you entered on the 2nd bearish candle, as the 1st one did't touch the line?

You enter on the line, or wait for price to cross, and enter on a retrace?

http://i50.tinypic.com/2pzjuc3.png


pablo101 wrote:
adaseb wrote:Hey

I didn't enter because the next candle didn't go past the previous low.

In the past whenever I would wait for a "wick" in a smaller timeframe based on a "wick" in a larger time frame, I always entered too late.

This way I enter at the white line with half a position and see how it goes. Sometimes it stops me out, like today with GU on the red line.

I've only been trading with this RAT method of entry for a week and seems to be working better... or else I am just having a good week this week.



pablo101 wrote:
adaseb wrote:Image


YOU, YES YOU are definitely kicking ass. I'm :oops: with my piddly 45 pips today! Some nice trading :P

Few questions here:

Why didn't you take that UJ short on those 5 min bull bear bars?

Also it seems you take the first trade going into a MO zone when you see a BB bar regardless of smaller TF momo in the opposite direction, right?

And you are not entering with limit orders too?

Sorry for the questions, just when you think you got it, there seems to more to improve on :shock:


So you take the first 5 min BB when price gets into a MO zone, wick or no wick, momo or no momo?
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Postby cfabian » Fri Jan 22, 2010 11:39 pm

Thanks PTG for your explanation, I have watched some of Seiden's videos. It is hard to grasp everything and remember it during the battle.

I should've waited for a confirmation candle in my direction. Darn!!!!


PTG wrote:
cfabian wrote:Here's the one from last night... Please give comments, I really need your inputs as this particular $#!"#$ trade put my morale on the floor.


Here's my take. A supply zone formed. Actually a very nice one, wish I'd seen it before :cry:
Strong parabolic move on the left (where the zone starts) indicates a strong imbalance between sellers and buyers. Since price didn't stay there very long, odds are that many sellers (the pro's) are left, waiting to sell again at that price. Price creeps up again, hits the zone and drops again.

Read the Sam Seiden stuff on fxstreet.com and watch his webcast transcipts and you will see the point.

To get back to your question: you were short early. It might have worked though, although the parabolic move at the breakout indicates it will return there. If you know where to identify those zones you will have an additional edge.

I used the same principle to go long earlier this afternoon at 1.6088.

Hope this helps.

EDIT: you can't see it in the picture, but it wicked into the zone by two-ish pips (1.62808 / 1.62832)

Image
WILL GET MY MONEY BACK FROM THOSE BASTARDS, AND I MEAN IT !!!!!

"WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE"

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Postby PTG » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:25 am

cfabian wrote:Thanks PTG for your explanation, I have watched some of Seiden's videos. It is hard to grasp everything and remember it during the battle.

I should've waited for a confirmation candle in my direction. Darn!!!!


Thanks for posting your trade and your question.

In hindsight everything is easy. I actually could have invented that saying :roll:

Apart from the supply zone thing, the H1 overlay with those two dreaded candles inside indicated increase of momentum where you'd like to see the opposite I suppose.

In general one should have rules for as many situations as possible so that you know what to do when a certain event occurs. All the blanks have to be filled in upfront. That makes the difference between getting in the train and take a ride or getting in front of the train and get squashed :shock:

I have started to use the S/D stuff for swing trading. The advantage is that you can set and forget. Find high probability-low risk entries and plan them upfront. Still working on the intraday though. I have issues being consistent because I haven't completely worked out all the rules yet. Having said that, it is important to let the market tell you the direction it is going so that you know if you have a valid trade. That's where a confirmation candle comes in handy. You would have to define exactly what that means, e.g. a candle that closes beyond the body of the last candle in the previous direction, or beyond 2/3 of the body, or so.

It all comes down to having a plan with an edge and then sticking to it.

I'd like to see Dragon's comment on your question.
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Postby adaseb » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:40 am

Image
Image

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Postby pablo101 » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:02 am

adaseb wrote:I would prefer so momo in the direction I want to go. I wouldnt use a doji as a reference candle probably.

pablo101 wrote:
adaseb wrote:Hey

I didn't enter because the next candle didn't go past the previous low.

In the past whenever I would wait for a "wick" in a smaller timeframe based on a "wick" in a larger time frame, I always entered too late.

This way I enter at the white line with half a position and see how it goes. Sometimes it stops me out, like today with GU on the red line.

I've only been trading with this RAT method of entry for a week and seems to be working better... or else I am just having a good week this week.



pablo101 wrote:
adaseb wrote:Image


YOU, YES YOU are definitely kicking ass. I'm :oops: with my piddly 45 pips today! Some nice trading :P

Few questions here:

Why didn't you take that UJ short on those 5 min bull bear bars?

Also it seems you take the first trade going into a MO zone when you see a BB bar regardless of smaller TF momo in the opposite direction, right?

And you are not entering with limit orders too?

Sorry for the questions, just when you think you got it, there seems to more to improve on :shock:


So you take the first 5 min BB when price gets into a MO zone, wick or no wick, momo or no momo?


Very aggressive, you've probably have a lot more stop outs than usually but also I guess you still have more opportunities too. 100 pips a day is fantastic, have you tallied you win/loss rate yet from this way?
What line? The line that tells you which way you are trading! - MO

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Postby adaseb » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:31 am

Image
Image

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