cfabian wrote:Here's the one from last night... Please give comments, I really need your inputs as this particular $#!"#$ trade put my morale on the floor.
Here's my take. A supply zone formed. Actually a very nice one, wish I'd seen it before
Strong parabolic move on the left (where the zone starts) indicates a strong imbalance between sellers and buyers. Since price didn't stay there very long, odds are that many sellers (the pro's) are left, waiting to sell again at that price. Price creeps up again, hits the zone and drops again.
Read the Sam Seiden stuff on fxstreet.com and watch his webcast transcipts and you will see the point.
To get back to your question: you were short early. It might have worked though, although the parabolic move at the breakout indicates it will return there. If you know where to identify those zones you will have an additional edge.
I used the same principle to go long earlier this afternoon at 1.6088.
Hope this helps.
EDIT: you can't see it in the picture, but it wicked into the zone by two-ish pips (1.62808 / 1.62832)