HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

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PTG
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:57 pm

I have to say this is one of those things I have repeatedly banged my head against ](*,) - I think I have an example as we speak with EURJPY, time to get my head all bloody again :shock:

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Last edited by PTG on Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby MightyOne » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:09 pm

PTG wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Adding a quarter reduces your space by 20%, if price retraces 80% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out?
Adding a third reducing your space by 25%, if price retraces 75% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out? (Remember that we are not talking about large spaces here)

I say that it is more profitable to take profit or add than it is to wait and see.


Scaling in and out in other words.

Is your thinking that if it retraces to 80% the odds to fail are similar as a 100% retrace, so you might as well a) increase load, b) decrease it again if it goes against and c) have the stop at the same absolute amount ?


Yes,

At +9, (3/4)9 is 6.75 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+2.3 (BE, +1 is an extra .75, +5 is an extra 3.75)
At +9, (4/5)9 is 7.2 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+1.8 (BE, +1 is an extra .8, +5 is an extra 4)

+25 to 33% profit on future gains is worth more than .8 to 1.3 pips of extra cushion.

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:27 pm

MightyOne wrote:
PTG wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Adding a quarter reduces your space by 20%, if price retraces 80% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out?
Adding a third reducing your space by 25%, if price retraces 75% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out? (Remember that we are not talking about large spaces here)

I say that it is more profitable to take profit or add than it is to wait and see.


Scaling in and out in other words.

Is your thinking that if it retraces to 80% the odds to fail are similar as a 100% retrace, so you might as well a) increase load, b) decrease it again if it goes against and c) have the stop at the same absolute amount ?


Yes,

At +9, (3/4)9 is 6.75 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+2.3 (BE)
At +9, (4/5)9 is 7.2 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+1.8 (BE)

+25 to 33% profit on future gains is worth more than .8 to 1.3 pips of extra cushion.


Aha !
Got it.
If stopped out, you probably would have been stopped out anyway (although 2.3 or 1.8 pips "later") and the financial downside is the same HOWEVER the upside has increased so you have positioned yourself for a better outcome.
Conversely, if price is heading the "wrong" direction towards the crapper, you reduce your position size = take part profit, you make some money while the market moves towards said crapper :shock: and should it fail to take you out, you can increase size again; if it does take you out you at least have something.
Think I got it.
Thanks . :smt023
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:47 pm

EURUSDH1.png
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Another simple yet profitable method.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:50 pm

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You don't need all the indicators. But they help.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:36 pm

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Quite a contrast :-"
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:41 pm

Small addition:

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:43 pm

Change Chart not needed any longer :)

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby westcountry » Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:48 am

Nice job PTG, I like the clearer charts!

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby PTG » Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:02 am

westcountry wrote:Nice job PTG, I like the clearer charts!


Thanks westcountry. It's an attempt to find an easier way to spot opportunities using some cool donational indicators.
I dislike having excess info, as in too many horizontal lines :smt106

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