## HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

I have to say this is one of those things I have repeatedly banged my head against - I think I have an example as we speak with EURJPY, time to get my head all bloody again

2016-08-04_1750.png (74.27 KiB) Viewed 2667 times

2016-08-04_1800.png (86.19 KiB) Viewed 2667 times

2016-08-04_1802.png (82.39 KiB) Viewed 2667 times

2016-08-04_1821.png (80.77 KiB) Viewed 2667 times

2016-08-04_1850.png (76.3 KiB) Viewed 2667 times

2016-08-04_1857.png (72.02 KiB) Viewed 2666 times

2016-08-04_1901.png (72.14 KiB) Viewed 2664 times

2016-08-04_2056.png (69.61 KiB) Viewed 2638 times
Last edited by PTG on Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 6055
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 478
Gender:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

PTG wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Adding a quarter reduces your space by 20%, if price retraces 80% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out?
Adding a third reducing your space by 25%, if price retraces 75% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out? (Remember that we are not talking about large spaces here)

I say that it is more profitable to take profit or add than it is to wait and see.

Scaling in and out in other words.

Is your thinking that if it retraces to 80% the odds to fail are similar as a 100% retrace, so you might as well a) increase load, b) decrease it again if it goes against and c) have the stop at the same absolute amount ?

Yes,

At +9, (3/4)9 is 6.75 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+2.3 (BE, +1 is an extra .75, +5 is an extra 3.75)
At +9, (4/5)9 is 7.2 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+1.8 (BE, +1 is an extra .8, +5 is an extra 4)

+25 to 33% profit on future gains is worth more than .8 to 1.3 pips of extra cushion.

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

MightyOne wrote:
PTG wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Adding a quarter reduces your space by 20%, if price retraces 80% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out?
Adding a third reducing your space by 25%, if price retraces 75% then what is the probability that the trade will rebound vs get stopped out? (Remember that we are not talking about large spaces here)

I say that it is more profitable to take profit or add than it is to wait and see.

Scaling in and out in other words.

Is your thinking that if it retraces to 80% the odds to fail are similar as a 100% retrace, so you might as well a) increase load, b) decrease it again if it goes against and c) have the stop at the same absolute amount ?

Yes,

At +9, (3/4)9 is 6.75 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+2.3 (BE)
At +9, (4/5)9 is 7.2 pips of space so you would move your stop to ENTRY+1.8 (BE)

+25 to 33% profit on future gains is worth more than .8 to 1.3 pips of extra cushion.

Aha !
Got it.
If stopped out, you probably would have been stopped out anyway (although 2.3 or 1.8 pips "later") and the financial downside is the same HOWEVER the upside has increased so you have positioned yourself for a better outcome.
Conversely, if price is heading the "wrong" direction towards the crapper, you reduce your position size = take part profit, you make some money while the market moves towards said crapper and should it fail to take you out, you can increase size again; if it does take you out you at least have something.
Think I got it.
Thanks .

TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 14118
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 2291
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

EURUSDH1.png (62.61 KiB) Viewed 2510 times

Another simple yet profitable method.

TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 14118
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 2291
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

EURUSDH1.png (38.26 KiB) Viewed 2509 times

You don't need all the indicators. But they help.

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

2016-08-09_1935.png (40.44 KiB) Viewed 2506 times

Quite a contrast

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

2016-08-09_1939.png (56.37 KiB) Viewed 2502 times

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Change Chart not needed any longer

2016-08-09_1943.png (45.72 KiB) Viewed 2501 times

westcountry
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:43 pm
Reputation: 108
Gender:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Nice job PTG, I like the clearer charts!

PTG
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 784
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm
Reputation: 326
Gender:
Contact:

### Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

westcountry wrote:Nice job PTG, I like the clearer charts!

Thanks westcountry. It's an attempt to find an easier way to spot opportunities using some cool donational indicators.
I dislike having excess info, as in too many horizontal lines

2016-08-10_1129.png (49.45 KiB) Viewed 2405 times

2016-08-10_1132.png (42.52 KiB) Viewed 2405 times

2016-08-10_1157.png (40.57 KiB) Viewed 2405 times

2016-08-10_1159.png (70.56 KiB) Viewed 2405 times