2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: DIA QQQQ

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 09, 2011 5:22 am

ewcraigs wrote:Thanks for the links, I'll check them out.

How are you coming to a conclusion on "trading the pairs that are going up", with the usual red candle, green candle, break of the high of the first green candle?


That's one way. Another is to trade GREEN H1 CANDLES in the RAT ZONE.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:17 pm

Image

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.


=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:26 pm

Image

Remember, the RAT goes with the statistics. The frequency distribution above show 7 days out of the last 10 days the bottom wick of the GBPUSD daily candle was 20 pips or more.

Image

DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) Red candle closes

3) Green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) Enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby Hawaiifive9 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 4:38 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.


=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
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MY_FAV.png
Aloha...am really hoping I can get a little help here. Am about halfway through the thread and have not seen (or missed) the name of this indy. Being a newbie here, I have the most recent motherlode and the 2011 donation indies. The utter simplicity of th
MY_FAV.png (21.62 KiB) Viewed 1987 times

Hawaiifive9
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Postby Hawaiifive9 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 4:43 pm

The utter simplicity of this method finds me utilizing few if any of the indicators at this time, however this one provides a nice overall snapshot of what's goin on. Mahalo plenty for the help :smt100

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Postby punkboy1980 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 7:48 pm

Hawaiifive9 wrote:The utter simplicity of this method finds me utilizing few if any of the indicators at this time, however this one provides a nice overall snapshot of what's goin on. Mahalo plenty for the help :smt100



It's TRO2011_MP_GPS, I believe.

ewcraigs
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Randomness

Postby ewcraigs » Wed Mar 09, 2011 8:02 pm

TRO,

With the inherent randomness of the market, How about just flipping a coin? Heads Long, Tails Short. I'm really serious. I'm curious about your thoughts and others on the forum.

Then just do a 1:2 risk/reward. I wonder what the statistics would show?

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Postby Hawaiifive9 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 9:57 pm

punkboy1980 wrote:
Hawaiifive9 wrote:The utter simplicity of this method finds me utilizing few if any of the indicators at this time, however this one provides a nice overall snapshot of what's goin on. Mahalo plenty for the help :smt100



It's TRO2011_MP_GPS, I believe.


That's kinda what it looks like to me too, but when I drop/drag onto my screen it (default) comes out lookin like this:
Attachments
TRO2011_MP_GPS.png
Seems like no matter how I edit - this won't change - except for the &quot;period&quot;.
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Hawaiifive9
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TRO2011_MP_GPS

Postby Hawaiifive9 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 10:54 pm

And here's what the GBPUSD chart looks like when I load the GPS template - as per the 2011 donational indys...
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GPS template.png
GPS template.png (33.97 KiB) Viewed 1901 times

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Re: TRO2011_MP_GPS

Postby punkboy1980 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 11:16 pm

Hawaiifive9 wrote:And here's what the GBPUSD chart looks like when I load the GPS template - as per the 2011 donational indys...


Mine showed up funny when I first loaded it too but when I opened up the indicator list and edited it ( I changed the period to D1) after I was done it popped up normal.

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