2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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trueblueTEX
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Postby trueblueTEX » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:58 pm

Admittedly, I am really ignorant about what all atr means and what to look for, but, what is the meaning of the "14" and why is it useful in particular?

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Postby trueblueTEX » Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:03 pm

Ok, I pissed away some pips and then went to lunch missing the opportunity to get 'em back!!!

I think you can see that I am guilty of taking the first red candle/green candle rat reversal that TRO told us on a similar chart, had at least 2 reasons to be left behind.

You can also see that after the bottom played out for a while (right AFTER my SL!!!) that it reversed!!!



So, I both jumped the gun and then left the range. I believe the name of the lesson is "PATIENCE".

Now, will I learn the lesson?

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Postby pika » Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:44 am

trueblueTEX wrote:Ok, I pissed away some pips and then went to lunch missing the opportunity to get 'em back!!!

I think you can see that I am guilty of taking the first red candle/green candle rat reversal that TRO told us on a similar chart, had at least 2 reasons to be left behind.

You can also see that after the bottom played out for a while (right AFTER my SL!!!) that it reversed!!!



So, I both jumped the gun and then left the range. I believe the name of the lesson is "PATIENCE".

Now, will I learn the lesson?


Usually I won't take the trade at the first instance of a reversal bar from the top/bottom of the rat zone, as I find most of the time the market will test that zone again. That's when I will watch for the price action and take the trade if the market is unwilling to break higher/lower. In fact, more often than not, the market will give you at least 3 chances to trade in the zone. I set the criteria to enter when the price is 10 or less pips from the zone's boundary so that if I'm stopped out within 10 pips, I know the rat zone has not reach the daily high/low yet. Wait for the next rat zone and then do the same.

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Postby trueblueTEX » Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:21 pm

I'm beginning to think that I should wait for Green Rat setups and then take Red Rat trades :lol:

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Postby trueblueTEX » Wed Oct 13, 2010 3:56 pm

Ok,

so I lost 9.6 (which prompted me to write the previous note) and then proceeded to gain 10.7. I really should have been stopped out on the second trade because price went more than 10 pips against me, but my SL includes spread so it was about 12.x.


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Postby skivers » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:46 pm

Hi Tex - thanks for posting - you are not alone in making a few mistakes - it's all part of learning I suppose.

I got stopped out first thing this morning on a GBPUSD and clawed my way back with several one pip trades and then the following EURUSD trades. when I was stopped again on the last one.

I look at the daily trend first then try to catch the top of any retracement to the upside of the channel.

I notice on this currency pair the best time to enter is when there is a bit of 'space' around the entry signal - unlike my last trade (and first trade), where the hour candle had changed and I failed to check it, also the candles are packed side by side (no space).

I think the best signals also have a nice pinbar reversal signal - I should be a lot more picky in my trades.

Just my take on it and I am probably wrong, but it's the only way to learn.




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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 7:52 pm

trueblueTEX wrote:Ok,

so I lost 9.6 (which prompted me to write the previous note) and then proceeded to gain 10.7. I really should have been stopped out on the second trade because price went more than 10 pips against me, but my SL includes spread so it was about 12.x.



Tex,

Your first trade that was a -9.6 loser. Why did you just sit there? On a trade like that if momentum isn't with you it's against you. At WORST I would have take -5 and then gone short with my first target at support for at least +5 to maybe +7.

Second trade of yours - here is how I would have traded it:
Where you went long ended up wicking pretty hard. It went up 5 pips from your entry and I would have ended up taking a scratch or maybe -3. Then I would have gone short (yeah not a rat trade but easy to see that if we fail to go up we must go down). First target I would be out half at previous support +5, and scratch the remainder as we stall. Then I would have gone long on the next valid rat trade (that first green candle after the 3 semaphore) and probably got out (at least half) where you exited. Way less stress (no holding your losers), goes with momentum, and makes about the same amount of pips (but risks less than half). Also you got mighty close to your stop and I never did.

At the end of these two sequences you are up 1 pip risking 12 while I am up 10-12 risking 5. Trading is a game of inches. Don't just surrender your pips! That's your hard earned money!
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:07 pm

skivers wrote:Hi Tex - thanks for posting - you are not alone in making a few mistakes - it's all part of learning I suppose.

I got stopped out first thing this morning on a GBPUSD and clawed my way back with several one pip trades and then the following EURUSD trades. when I was stopped again on the last one.

I look at the daily trend first then try to catch the top of any retracement to the upside of the channel.

I notice on this currency pair the best time to enter is when there is a bit of 'space' around the entry signal - unlike my last trade (and first trade), where the hour candle had changed and I failed to check it, also the candles are packed side by side (no space).

I think the best signals also have a nice pinbar reversal signal - I should be a lot more picky in my trades.

Just my take on it and I am probably wrong, but it's the only way to learn.





Skivers - those are awesome entries. 3 out of 4 of those were brilliant pullbacks in a downtrend (on that timeframe). I wanted to take those trades (but was asleep). So why didn't you take more than 1 or 2 pips out of those first 3 trades? Scale out if you have to but you can't eat like a bird and s**t like an elephant. The last trade could have been entered sooner IMO and thus been more of a scratch. But the real failure here was not making the most of your obvious winners. Trade #2 was worth a solid 20-30 pips of anyone's money. This is the trade that could have brought home the bacon.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Postby trueblueTEX » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:11 pm

Hey Ed (eu da man) :-)

Thanks for the critique. I had come to the same conclusion about my second trade (just before the 3 sema ) I should have baled with a couple of pips since it wicked up quick and came down fast as well.

And then taken the next GR setup.

Since I'm still trading demo I just let it go and it was just pure chance that it didn't stop out.

I need to quit that and treat each trade as though real money is on the line.

Oddly enough, one of my biggest problems is fear even though I'm punching demobucks!! The fear is the fear of being wrong about WHERE the market is going.

On my first trade on that chart, I should have taken a hit of -3 or so. It NEVER went up after I entered the trade. I was negative from the getgo and never even got up to zero pips.

I once tried (long before coming here) going long, then short if the long failed. I ended up losing 2 trades instead of just 1 :-)

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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:30 pm

No problem. I think it takes a good amount of practice before we overcome this natural fear of the markets (either with real money or not). Remember the market can either go UP or DOWN. There is nothing to fear in the markets. When we are right we maximize our winners. When we are wrong we minimize our losers. Minimizing losing trades is what winners do.

You can certainly take 2 losses in that case. If you went strictly by the RAT you'd have taken a -3, -3 (or less perhaps) and +10. Up 4 pips total with less stress.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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