2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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pika
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Postby pika » Sun Oct 10, 2010 3:25 pm

skivers wrote:The RAT REVERSALS wait for 2 bars to close BEFORE an entry is made. On M5, that is at least a 10 minute wait. You can check if the range on higher time frames have been exhausted. The main thing to do is WAIT. BE PATIENT. You know price will reverse - wait to SEE IT


If price has reached a daily high or low, all candles within the day from M1 to H4 will be at the same high or low prices, so I don't think they help very much unless you are trying to check for support/resistance regions.

It may be more useful to check (after some time from the daily Open, e.g. 6 to 10 hours later) if the day's range has reached at least 70%-80% of a longer term Daily ATR e.g. ATR(50) - the chance of a reversal will be higher if the current day's ATR is nearer to the longer term Daily ATR.

Also check the previous day's ATR. If it was much higher than the longer term Daily ATR, e.g. 150% of Daily ATR(50) then the chance of a reversal at a lower current day ATR is higher and vice versa, since they must average out towards the longer term ATR eventually.

I hope what I say is not Yale material, but useful enough to help those of us trying to guage the Daily high or low with higher probability. :roll:

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Jake111
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Postby Jake111 » Sun Oct 10, 2010 4:31 pm

TRO: You know what the real problem is with people not believing in your methods' simplicity? I think I know: it's because you cannot do much of this simple stuff in backtesting by just looking at a static completed chart. You have to replay the candles tick by tick or just forward test on live data. When you say "trade in the direction of the 1H candle over a horizontal line" most people then look at a static historic chart and see all of the "whipsaws" over various lines and say "impossible". But in real time, with common sense, it's a whole new story. I think this is the problem for most people.

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skivers
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Postby skivers » Sun Oct 10, 2010 4:36 pm

pika wrote:
skivers wrote:The RAT REVERSALS wait for 2 bars to close BEFORE an entry is made. On M5, that is at least a 10 minute wait. You can check if the range on higher time frames have been exhausted. The main thing to do is WAIT. BE PATIENT. You know price will reverse - wait to SEE IT


If price has reached a daily high or low, all candles within the day from M1 to H4 will be at the same high or low prices, so I don't think they help very much unless you are trying to check for support/resistance regions.

It may be more useful to check (after some time from the daily Open, e.g. 6 to 10 hours later) if the day's range has reached at least 70%-80% of a longer term Daily ATR e.g. ATR(50) - the chance of a reversal will be higher if the current day's ATR is nearer to the longer term Daily ATR.

Also check the previous day's ATR. If it was much higher than the longer term Daily ATR, e.g. 150% of Daily ATR(50) then the chance of a reversal at a lower current day ATR is higher and vice versa, since they must average out towards the longer term ATR eventually.

I hope what I say is not Yale material, but useful enough to help those of us trying to guage the Daily high or low with higher probability. :roll:


HI Pica

I would just like to impress that that quote was not mine - it was TRO's

I was simply quoting it :D

Tman has also mentioned the ATR as a likely place to look for reversals

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skivers
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Postby skivers » Sun Oct 10, 2010 4:48 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

The first 2 green rat reversals were losing entries.

Do you see a reason not to enter those trades?

Hints: There are at least 2 reasons. Use your eyes to see - do not think about it.




Another quote from TRO

QUOTE

"And I also stated REPEATEDLY not to trade against the H1 bias (CANDLE COLOR). Let the H1 candle close and see what happens next hour.

When price is within 20 pips of the daily low, the D1 is usually red. That is why you use the TRO Multimeter CandleColor to see the color of the H1 and W1 candles. It's better to have 2 out of 3 on your side. "


Just look at the screen shot and you can see what happened after the hour change

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Sun Oct 10, 2010 6:25 pm

Does anyone know what WEAK LWP means, as in the below ellipse? Thanks,

Image

Found some nuggets:

Rules of Thumb always apply. You have to know when to break the rules. That is something you teach yourself through experience. - TRO


" I would like to clarify what you mean by the statement "The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method." - Student

It means you can use whatever entry method you like such as moving average crossover, RSI, ATR, horizontal lines, breakouts, etc... SO LONG AS, you enter within 20 pips of the daily high/low. - TRO
Last edited by tmanbone on Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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vincentws
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Postby vincentws » Sun Oct 10, 2010 8:18 pm

I believe LWP stands for Long Wick Pattern, an idea mentioned in these pdfs:http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2455696&postcount=29

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genlogins
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Postby genlogins » Sun Oct 10, 2010 9:32 pm

Jake111 wrote:TRO: You know what the real problem is with people not believing in your methods' simplicity? I think I know: it's because you cannot do much of this simple stuff in backtesting by just looking at a static completed chart. You have to replay the candles tick by tick or just forward test on live data. When you say "trade in the direction of the 1H candle over a horizontal line" most people then look at a static historic chart and see all of the "whipsaws" over various lines and say "impossible". But in real time, with common sense, it's a whole new story. I think this is the problem for most people.



*** No Attack Intended Here ***** below

I think the real problem is that TRO is a Doer and not a Teacher. As if he was a Teacher he would be teaching some one else's method or inventing one and charging $5,000 for each seat.

I think he is like myself, a simple Doer, that does and to teach is difficult as there are too much know how sometimes.

And also, most times you just need to cut your losses short and cut your winner from becoming losers. Everyone is greedy and wait too long sometimes.

For all methods, I think there must be some one that can put all together and make a ebook or something. I try to read as much as I can, but have another life(s); forex trading, street trading, net trading, and still have small time to read all the forum material.

Whish it was easy to read and put to practice, as you most know I lost 70% of my account, and trying to get back at live trading after 4 months, not easy.

g

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:12 am

Wish - to have a desire.
Effort - the total work done to achieve a particular end.
Student - one who studies.
Learn - to acquire knowledge or skill.
Mastery - possession or display of great skill or technique.
Teacher - one that teaches; especially : one whose occupation is to instruct.

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

Everything is in this 241 page thread. The rest is up to the student. This is the lesson. A wish is desire, without effort, will remain a wish.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

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skivers
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Postby skivers » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:03 am

genlogins wrote:
Jake111 wrote:TRO: You know what the real problem is with people not believing in your methods' simplicity? I think I know: it's because you cannot do much of this simple stuff in backtesting by just looking at a static completed chart. You have to replay the candles tick by tick or just forward test on live data. When you say "trade in the direction of the 1H candle over a horizontal line" most people then look at a static historic chart and see all of the "whipsaws" over various lines and say "impossible". But in real time, with common sense, it's a whole new story. I think this is the problem for most people.



*** No Attack Intended Here ***** below

I think the real problem is that TRO is a Doer and not a Teacher. As if he was a Teacher he would be teaching some one else's method or inventing one and charging $5,000 for each seat.

I think he is like myself, a simple Doer, that does and to teach is difficult as there are too much know how sometimes.

And also, most times you just need to cut your losses short and cut your winner from becoming losers. Everyone is greedy and wait too long sometimes.

For all methods, I think there must be some one that can put all together and make a ebook or something. I try to read as much as I can, but have another life(s); forex trading, street trading, net trading, and still have small time to read all the forum material.

Whish it was easy to read and put to practice, as you most know I lost 70% of my account, and trying to get back at live trading after 4 months, not easy.

g


Hi Genlogins

I have to say I disagree :-)

Tro wants to make us think about everything he posts - he consistently shows this in his posts asking us what we SEE, LOOK e.t.c.

It would be all to easy for him to simply tell us everything he knows - It would be simpler for him as he would get no more daft questions.

I will make a guess and say that TRO feels if a student gets an 'AHA' moment - it is a more powerful learning experience.

In short he wants us to put some work and effort in ourselves

Now - where did I put my YALE application.

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:59 pm

Along these lines I'd say that trading knowledge is largely tacit. Books will only take you so far. Can you teach someone to ski, surf, or create great paintings through a book, forum, or static picture? Of course not. Trading is the same way. That is the Art of Trading.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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