2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 7:52 pm

trueblueTEX wrote:Ok,

so I lost 9.6 (which prompted me to write the previous note) and then proceeded to gain 10.7. I really should have been stopped out on the second trade because price went more than 10 pips against me, but my SL includes spread so it was about 12.x.



Tex,

Your first trade that was a -9.6 loser. Why did you just sit there? On a trade like that if momentum isn't with you it's against you. At WORST I would have take -5 and then gone short with my first target at support for at least +5 to maybe +7.

Second trade of yours - here is how I would have traded it:
Where you went long ended up wicking pretty hard. It went up 5 pips from your entry and I would have ended up taking a scratch or maybe -3. Then I would have gone short (yeah not a rat trade but easy to see that if we fail to go up we must go down). First target I would be out half at previous support +5, and scratch the remainder as we stall. Then I would have gone long on the next valid rat trade (that first green candle after the 3 semaphore) and probably got out (at least half) where you exited. Way less stress (no holding your losers), goes with momentum, and makes about the same amount of pips (but risks less than half). Also you got mighty close to your stop and I never did.

At the end of these two sequences you are up 1 pip risking 12 while I am up 10-12 risking 5. Trading is a game of inches. Don't just surrender your pips! That's your hard earned money!
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:07 pm

skivers wrote:Hi Tex - thanks for posting - you are not alone in making a few mistakes - it's all part of learning I suppose.

I got stopped out first thing this morning on a GBPUSD and clawed my way back with several one pip trades and then the following EURUSD trades. when I was stopped again on the last one.

I look at the daily trend first then try to catch the top of any retracement to the upside of the channel.

I notice on this currency pair the best time to enter is when there is a bit of 'space' around the entry signal - unlike my last trade (and first trade), where the hour candle had changed and I failed to check it, also the candles are packed side by side (no space).

I think the best signals also have a nice pinbar reversal signal - I should be a lot more picky in my trades.

Just my take on it and I am probably wrong, but it's the only way to learn.





Skivers - those are awesome entries. 3 out of 4 of those were brilliant pullbacks in a downtrend (on that timeframe). I wanted to take those trades (but was asleep). So why didn't you take more than 1 or 2 pips out of those first 3 trades? Scale out if you have to but you can't eat like a bird and s**t like an elephant. The last trade could have been entered sooner IMO and thus been more of a scratch. But the real failure here was not making the most of your obvious winners. Trade #2 was worth a solid 20-30 pips of anyone's money. This is the trade that could have brought home the bacon.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Postby trueblueTEX » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:11 pm

Hey Ed (eu da man) :-)

Thanks for the critique. I had come to the same conclusion about my second trade (just before the 3 sema ) I should have baled with a couple of pips since it wicked up quick and came down fast as well.

And then taken the next GR setup.

Since I'm still trading demo I just let it go and it was just pure chance that it didn't stop out.

I need to quit that and treat each trade as though real money is on the line.

Oddly enough, one of my biggest problems is fear even though I'm punching demobucks!! The fear is the fear of being wrong about WHERE the market is going.

On my first trade on that chart, I should have taken a hit of -3 or so. It NEVER went up after I entered the trade. I was negative from the getgo and never even got up to zero pips.

I once tried (long before coming here) going long, then short if the long failed. I ended up losing 2 trades instead of just 1 :-)

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Postby eudamonia » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:30 pm

No problem. I think it takes a good amount of practice before we overcome this natural fear of the markets (either with real money or not). Remember the market can either go UP or DOWN. There is nothing to fear in the markets. When we are right we maximize our winners. When we are wrong we minimize our losers. Minimizing losing trades is what winners do.

You can certainly take 2 losses in that case. If you went strictly by the RAT you'd have taken a -3, -3 (or less perhaps) and +10. Up 4 pips total with less stress.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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drain the banks like a rat

Postby 2trade » Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:55 am

I have learnt an expensive lesson in trading, I trade the rat reversals but i see that that nice big green bar and then become an yale student and think no this is not it or over analyse it when i should be clicking a buy wait and find out i was right and see so many good trades go by and then get into a rotten trade just to lose. so advice it is dont try to be an yale student learn to click. to build my confidence i now trade smaller which has helped me with gettting into the right trade hope this helps. the winners have help me psychologically that has soooooooooooo much to do with your trading.

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Postby skivers » Thu Oct 14, 2010 10:16 am

eudamonia wrote:Skivers - those are awesome entries. 3 out of 4 of those were brilliant pullbacks in a downtrend (on that timeframe). I wanted to take those trades (but was asleep). So why didn't you take more than 1 or 2 pips out of those first 3 trades? Scale out if you have to but you can't eat like a bird and s**t like an elephant. The last trade could have been entered sooner IMO and thus been more of a scratch. But the real failure here was not making the most of your obvious winners. Trade #2 was worth a solid 20-30 pips of anyone's money. This is the trade that could have brought home the bacon.



Thanks for the feedback eudamonia - It's really appreciated

And I fear you are spot on in your analysis. Here is today's trades which shows the same problem ( the first was 7 pips followed by 2pips - its so near to ten I will stop trading now)

The second trade might not look like a pure rat trade but the market order was placed under the first red that was followed by all those lows - so I thought it might break really nicely under there. If only I could have sat on my hands another five minutes. -and you are proved right for the second time today :-)

eudamonia wrote: Scale out if you have to but you can't eat like a bird and s**t like an elephant..


Man, I cracked up laughing at that :D

Tomorrow I will set up a window to close half the trade where I feel the trade has stalled and let the other half do its bit.


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Postby eudamonia » Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:14 pm

Skivers,

Well at least you know what to work on. Your entries are solid. I actually had similar entry points this morning.

I use the Euro Futures volume profile to identify previous value areas and hence S/R. You probably don't need anything that fancy (but it looks damn sexy on my screen). The major support that held several times this morning was around 14060-70. Seemed like a great target.

I had comparable entries to yours and ended up scaling out at +20, +30 (my 75 target) on the first trade and +10, +12 on the second. So averaged +25 on the first sequence and +11 on the second. Never took more than about two pips worth of heat.
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Postby skivers » Sat Oct 16, 2010 11:48 am

eudamonia wrote:Skivers,

Well at least you know what to work on. Your entries are solid. I actually had similar entry points this morning.

I use the Euro Futures volume profile to identify previous value areas and hence S/R. You probably don't need anything that fancy (but it looks damn sexy on my screen). The major support that held several times this morning was around 14060-70. Seemed like a great target.

I had comparable entries to yours and ended up scaling out at +20, +30 (my 75 target) on the first trade and +10, +12 on the second. So averaged +25 on the first sequence and +11 on the second. Never took more than about two pips worth of heat.


Thanks again eudamonia. I hope its not just luck!



When I get in a trade, all I have looked for is to grab a couple of pips or so before it reverses on me. - On the other hand you seem to have a real target- you know where you expect price to be heading.

I have Googled ' Futures volume profile' but have found nothing solid so far.

I should explain to you why I consistently get out of a trade when I feel a reverse is on the cards

I have spent over a year learning a scalping technique very similar to what TRO knows as 'Purple Patch' (I noticed he built an indicator on another thread. However, this technique relies on a 'gut feel', that I, personally, have found difficult to master).

This 'get out of a trade quick' reaction is almost hard wired into me at the moment and works very well for that other technique.

What I should try to remember is, if I am waiting patiently for the pullback I should really expect price to at least return to the previous low - if not a 'lower' low.

What I really like about this whole RAT approach is it relies on reading some common sense repeating price action and the simple entry signals they generate.

I like its simplicity

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Postby jlpk007 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 11:33 am

Do you guys trade with 5min chart for reversal method?

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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Oct 17, 2010 12:42 pm

jlpk007 wrote:Do you guys trade with 5min chart for reversal method?

:!: !LOL! :!:
:smt067 :smt068 :smt070


Image {jlpk007 slapping me for being a smartass}
...yes they do.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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