2009.06.24 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE PART III

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jun 25, 2009 10:56 pm

MightyOne wrote: "They lose because everything they do doesn't work in the long run" -TRO

So they lose because they do not know how to respond to change?

Everything works and everything doesn't :lol:


Image

No, I don't think it is about responding to change.

Price goes up or down.

If you only trade one direction and limit your loss in the other then the outcomes are:

1) you lose X pips

2) you stand to gain the average of ( high - open ) on average which is more than X pips.

3) you never get an entry

There is no analysis, thinking or guessing. Price has to go up 5 pips from the open or you do not trade. If that happens, then you buy. If price drops 8 pips from your entry, then you lose. Otherwise, you are in the position to profit from the move.

If you "get lucky", you may get a 50+ pip winning trade.

The hardest part is QUITTING WHILE YOU'RE AHEAD!

Almost as hard is clearing your mind of the nonsense that it has learned regarding trading.

The chart shown is "cruel". If there was a possible way to lose, the trade is shown as a loss.

One thing to remember, "go fishing when the fish are biting."
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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monolisa
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Postby monolisa » Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:40 pm

Hi TRO,

If possible, are you able to modified TRO_RANGE_EZ_P2 to show the median Q2, lower quartile Q1 (25%) and upper quartile Q3(75%)? I found them more informative especially if there are extreme outliers.

Here's a diagram to show their relationship to a normal distribution curve.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Boxplot_vs_PDF.png

Thanks.

Lis
"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

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Postby noone22 » Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:44 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:go fishing when the fish are biting


If only I knew, when fish is biting - I would catch it all...

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Postby lukx » Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:40 am

thanks TRO I especially was interested in the range gauge but it seems I don't have this one. I think it has some different name.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:55 pm

"If only I knew, when fish is biting - I would catch it all" -Noone22

1. When there is a higher low

2. When there is a breakout from either end of the candle that made the higher low.

3. When there is a breakout from a trading range.

Joe Ross says that a trading range is defined as 5 candles closing within the range of a previous candle.

I start with 1 candle closing in the range of the previous candle and then use the range of the last 2, 3, 4, & 5 to determine a trading range:

ImageImageImage

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lukx
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Postby lukx » Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:42 pm

Mighty what indys you used?

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***FX-JEDI***
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Postby ***FX-JEDI*** » Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:46 pm

You may not be able to pick the future, but a heads up certainly helps
Pic for when trading ranges..

Cheers ***FX-JEDI***
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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:25 pm

Just because an indi is on or off my chart that does not mean that I am or am not using it.

I use the following indicators to trade:

SweetSpotsGOLD

TRO2009_%CHANGE_CW2

TRO_TopOfHourAlarm

TRO_MO_MoneyManagement edited to THREE & FLEE

Candles ;)

lukx wrote:Mighty what indys you used?

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jun 26, 2009 5:22 pm

TRO_MO_BOXES

Image

TRO_MO_BOXES will plot a box around the bars based on the inputs, myBars and myShift. Default is 5 bars, starting 1 bar ago.
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IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jun 26, 2009 5:48 pm

Image

I reread MightyOne's rules.

"I start with 1 candle closing in the range of the previous candle and then use the range of the last 2, 3, 4, & 5 to determine a trading range: "

This version is closer to the rules.
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