If I trade all 26 candles, and a winning day is > +9 pips . . .
Trading SHORT, I lose if my limit is < 34 pips per trade (the 14th candle brings me positive, but I lose if I continue trading any more).
Trading LONG, I almost can't lose.
In the image, the running totals are what matters.
The "Max" columns mean I timed the market perfectly and took the max # of pips each trade, less spread. Not possible, but I'm just showing what could be.
The "Lim" columns mean that I'm using a limit, so I can't win more than that, but if my limit is too big, then I take whatever there is at the end of the candle (win or lose) less the spread.
The "Run" columns means that the trade ran for 60 minutes and the take is based on the open-close or close-open price less the spread.
I uploaded the spreadsheet so you guys can play with changing the spread, stop, and limit values (the chart will recalculate itself, and neg numbers will always be red). To pick and chose your trading hours, just blank out the values under "Hourly Totals" for those hours you won't be trading.
I don't know how Alpari's server time compares to GMT, so I just assume that the times are GMT for this exercise. That's how I chose my personal trading candles.
For me, I have to work and sleep and spend some time with my family, so trading each hour for 26 hours just isn't feasible. Based on hours I can trade, I lose 50 pips if I trade SHORT, but I do end up 10 to 30 pips ahead if I trade LONG (after 30 pips, I lose if I continue to trade).
Of course, it is possible to win trading SHORT if you trade the right candles
Oh . . . I'm still new to trading, so if my calculations are wrong someone please fix it AND let me know so I can correct my own understanding. Thanks.