ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

[prochargedmopar]

While posting,
I see there were two more entry opportunities available....
One short and one long.
Do you see it?

There were also two more waves in that sequence but the probabilities of the trade succeeding would have been too small for the risk involved.

[jhtumblin]

Could you define for poor old argentinos
what is scaling IN
and scaling OUT.

What is the difference between them
and how to actually trade (do) them?
And why there are better than nothing?

These are the most simple examples:

Scaling In= Initiate 1st lot at your entry trigger, add 2nd lot while your trade is in profit if you get another entry trigger or price is on retracement (scaling in can also be done on losing positions, it is NOT recommended however). You can continue to add lots so long as you are properly capitalized. What this accomplishes is it enables your 2nd and subsequent entries to become risk free as long as you continue to raise your initial stoploss. It also snowballs your winning position if the trend in price continues. A decrease in risk and rise in reward potential.

Scaling Out= The same as Scaling In except that this time we begin with a full position and close portions of it into levels of profit (or loss). The problem here is that risk/reward ratios become very construed and reward expectancy is always unknown. Of course you can argue that all reward is of unknown expectancy, except that with this method one is actually decreasing their reward potential while they decrease risk.
-------------------------

Pro,

Your practice chart trades were completely legitimate. In this case they just happened not to move far enough into profit for you.

There were also two more waves in that sequence but the probabilities of the trade succeeding would have been too small for the risk involved.

That is a valid observation, but what was your risk? I look at your chart and I think that you did not risk enough to begin with, your trade did not ride long enough. You didn't have a break of previous resistance so why did you exit? I know you are scalping reversals and that you thought the uptrend was resuming, but you didn't give it a chance to breathe. Maybe your stops are too tight? Your reward expectancy too low? Even for a scalp you need to have the proper ratio or it's not worth it. What do you think?

[prochargedmopar]

Another failed exit.

I was using fxcm's D1/H1/M30/M10/M3 charts.
Entry/exit on m3 chart.

I had a decent entry but exited on a doji. Price went another 25 pips before a lower close. (4 more m3 candles)
I wish the tradestation 2 software would give me volume and also allow me to take a snapshot that I could actually use to post pics with.

So, how did I know to go long? what was my edge?
Well,
Dyn sup/res, H1 chart had a huge wick up (was a body on m30 chart) after a down trend, this usually means that the next body will close up.
Also, M.O. says down up down (m30) would mean price usually rises.
candlestick pattern on m3/m10 charts.
Support area when zoomed out H1/m30 chart.
Also, bottom of bucket nobrainer trade.

Is that enough reasons to go long??????
I've got more in my head but may not be able to describe them here.

Anyway, here is a mt4 version of the trade.
In at 31, out at 41.
+9.8 pips

GBP/USD 1 B 1.59310 1.59408 9.8 0.98 0.00 10/1/2009 02:02 10/1/2009 02:08

[prochargedmopar]

Dag nab it.
While posting above price came back to my exit then shot up 20 pips.
Could have gotten back in.

Higher time frames were all signalling a long trade.
I don't like the looks of the daily chart for longs though.
Hmmmmm

[prochargedmopar]

I was reading the web board and flipped back to the charts.
Said to myself, look here, this bad boy is dropping.
I was Waaaaay late on the entry, in at 80.
Was thinking that I'd just ride until a 3m candle closed against me.....
bailed out with +.6 pips.

yeah, It's still dropping. Another failed exit.
it's at 62 right now. (18 pips down)
TRADING IS ALL ABOUT THE EXITS.
TO MINIMIZE LOSS AND MAXIMIZE PROFITS

I really do now believe that a real trader can just flip a coin to enter trades.
He would Immediately exit the losing positions while letting what he deamed to be a winner run.
Now I know why all the noobs are looking for entry methods but don't talk about the exits.......They can't see how the market really works. Not that I can, but I can see LOSS.
Loss of profit that is.

[Brookmyre]

Hey Pro, I just read your comment on Mo's MBT Micro thread and I though a reply here would be more appropriate.

I wanted to say your participation on this forum has helped me a lot. I have only just started demo trading and had been doing well untill today. I had a crap day and couldn't do anything right. I know the difference between today and yesterday was all in my head though. I know from reading your thread the difference between a good day and a bad day is all in yours as well. I guess its the same for all of us.

You have had a lot more experience than me and so I wouldn't offer advice when Im so much further behind you in the learning experience here and when there are so many more here who are better qualified than I'll ever be to do that. But I will say this.....

I admire your persistance. I think it's ballsy to have an online journal to chronicle all the good and the bad, and without fear or embarrasment post the stuff that others never would....

Now go trade just like that.....

Good luck

[prochargedmopar]

Hey Pro, I just read your comment on Mo's MBT Micro thread and I though a reply here would be more appropriate.

I wanted to say your participation on this forum has helped me a lot. I have only just started demo trading and had been doing well untill today. I had a crap day and couldn't do anything right. I know the difference between today and yesterday was all in my head though. I know from reading your thread the difference between a good day and a bad day is all in yours as well. I guess its the same for all of us.

You have had a lot more experience than me and so I wouldn't offer advice when Im so much further behind you in the learning experience here and when there are so many more here who are better qualified than I'll ever be to do that. But I will say this.....

I admire your persistance. I think it's ballsy to have an online journal to chronicle all the good and the bad, and without fear or embarrasment post the stuff that others never would....

Now go trade just like that.....

Good luck

Thanks for the comment.
I can't really give any advices either and not have it be do as I say, not as I do.
LOL

[jhtumblin]

I really do now believe that a real trader can just flip a coin to enter trades.
He would Immediately exit the losing positions while letting what he deamed to be a winner run.
Now I know why all the noobs are looking for entry methods but don't talk about the exits.......They can't see how the market really works.

I think you are finally seeing the light my good man.

[prochargedmopar]

Hmmmmm,
You think I might have exited a pip or two early on this one???? It's so funny it hurts.
I actually feel this was a good trade, candle closed against me, I exited on the next one for close to B/E, even though it did shoot up 20. Ouch.

These guys are playin some games down here, collecting a few buy orders for an up move, only time will tell.


In at 56, out -0.3
GBP/USD 1 B 1.59562 1.59559 -0.3 -0.03 0.00 10/1/2009 08:22 10/1/2009 08:26

[prochargedmopar]

I think what grumps me the worst is messing with this and I missed the 20 pips from the daily bottom trade. Doh.

I ended up getting in later after another breakout...
ONLY got 9.8 and it went up 30ish.

When I decided to HOLD I was between +3 and -10 for 30 minutes.
What a crock.
hehehehehe