ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Sep 30, 2009 1:46 am

Found an edge or 2

Started thinking in probabilities and payoff ratios

And threw out everything else......
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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jhtumblin
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Postby jhtumblin » Wed Sep 30, 2009 6:19 am

Pro,

At this point, even I am beginning to hate seeing you pay my bills, but until you grasp the simple concepts of trading, you are going to stay on the same path you have been on.

When I see this thread I think "almost 100 pages of inconsistency without success." I don't want to sound harsh but if you were still trading the buyzone for instance, I would bet my money you would still be at breakeven or better. Your first post even started wrong with the statement:

I'll be using Dynamic BuyZone, #3 Breakouts, , and Z-lines according to TRO's rules.
Basically 3clipz3's (Rock/Paper/Scissors)


Pick 1 method. If none of the ones posted here suit you, they don't for me, then invent your own and start to master it. Once you feel comfortable with your entries, sound position sizing and proper R/R ratios will take care of the rest. Right now you are finicky and until you fix that problem you will get nowhere. I wish speedy resolution to you.

Edit: On a more helpful note, I can tell you that scaling exits in profit will not work unless you are scaling exits on your stoplosses also. Your R/R on any trade should be at a minimum 1:2. Keep in mind that then you will need to win approx 55% of your trades to make money, which in all honesty it still is not a healthy ratio. I can not possibly put enough emphasis on how important money management is. There is no need to look for a better entry strategy when the exit is what's breaking you.

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Sep 30, 2009 8:00 am

Entry and exit are the two sides of your edge, both are equally important and equally irrelevant if one or the other is lacking.


Pro, can you articulate your edge......For example, when price does X, Y and Z within B number of minutes on a 5 minute chart, I go long and then exit the position when profit equals 60% of the 5 day Moving Average or if my entry bar closes against me. Use a 20 pip SL
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:20 am

+.5% London session.

jhtumblin,

You make SOME very valid points.

Razorboy,
Yes.
When I see that price is about to reverse, I enter
When I see that price is about to breakout, I enter.

I have a VERY high success rate, very high.

It's the exits.
First, I must be able to exit quickly when I'm wrong.
Second, I must be able to allow the market to tell me when to take profit.

Both problems I have with exits stem from psychological issues, fight or flight mechanisms, ect.

I'm working on it.

3 entries today.
All three were sweet,

Exits were crap.
Scaled out of first to soon.
Stopped out of 2nd to soon.
Exited 3rd waaaaaay to soon.

See a pattern there?
Makes it hard to take the other many entries that were available when you don't have a "set in stone" exit plan.
People cry about entries and when to enter the market........It's a joke.
When to exit is no joke!!!!!

#3
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60826 1.60784 4.2 2.52 0.00 9/30/2009 03:19 9/30/2009 03:20

#2
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60832 1.60867 -3.5 -2.10 0.00 9/30/2009 03:18 9/30/2009 03:19


#1
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60445 5.1 0.51 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:30
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60467 2.9 0.29 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
GBP/USD 4 S 1.60496 1.60481 1.5 0.60 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
18 10.2 1.82 0.00
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

jhtumblin
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Postby jhtumblin » Wed Sep 30, 2009 11:11 am

Pro,

Assuming your stoplosses are suited for your account size, I challenge you to start scaling INTO your winning positions instead of out of them. Then when you feel the need to exit, close the entire thing. I can almost guarantee you will start seeing more steady growth, not to mention capturing more of the available profits because your trade will ride longer. The added bonus to this is you will not take a full position unless you are winning which helps in the event your trade immediately heads toward your stoploss.

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Sep 30, 2009 11:15 am

That is hardly a well defined edge.

An edge involves entry and exit........how do you define/quantify "about", "reverse" and "breakout"

Success rate means nothing........PROFIT is everything

prochargedmopar wrote:+.5% London session.


Razorboy,
Yes.
When I see that price is about to reverse, I enter
When I see that price is about to breakout, I enter.

I have a VERY high success rate, very high.

It's the exits.
First, I must be able to exit quickly when I'm wrong.
Second, I must be able to allow the market to tell me when to take profit.

Both problems I have with exits stem from psychological issues, fight or flight mechanisms, ect.

I'm working on it.

3 entries today.
All three were sweet,

Exits were crap.
Scaled out of first to soon.
Stopped out of 2nd to soon.
Exited 3rd waaaaaay to soon.

See a pattern there?
Makes it hard to take the other many entries that were available when you don't have a "set in stone" exit plan.
People cry about entries and when to enter the market........It's a joke.
When to exit is no joke!!!!!

#3
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60826 1.60784 4.2 2.52 0.00 9/30/2009 03:19 9/30/2009 03:20

#2
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60832 1.60867 -3.5 -2.10 0.00 9/30/2009 03:18 9/30/2009 03:19


#1
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60445 5.1 0.51 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:30
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60467 2.9 0.29 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
GBP/USD 4 S 1.60496 1.60481 1.5 0.60 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
18 10.2 1.82 0.00
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Sep 30, 2009 11:20 am

Do you filter for time of day and speed/velocity?


razorboy wrote:That is hardly a well defined edge.

An edge involves entry and exit........how do you define/quantify "about", "reverse" and "breakout"

Success rate means nothing........PROFIT is everything

prochargedmopar wrote:+.5% London session.


Razorboy,
Yes.
When I see that price is about to reverse, I enter
When I see that price is about to breakout, I enter.

I have a VERY high success rate, very high.

It's the exits.
First, I must be able to exit quickly when I'm wrong.
Second, I must be able to allow the market to tell me when to take profit.

Both problems I have with exits stem from psychological issues, fight or flight mechanisms, ect.

I'm working on it.

3 entries today.
All three were sweet,

Exits were crap.
Scaled out of first to soon.
Stopped out of 2nd to soon.
Exited 3rd waaaaaay to soon.

See a pattern there?
Makes it hard to take the other many entries that were available when you don't have a "set in stone" exit plan.
People cry about entries and when to enter the market........It's a joke.
When to exit is no joke!!!!!

#3
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60826 1.60784 4.2 2.52 0.00 9/30/2009 03:19 9/30/2009 03:20

#2
GBP/USD 6 S 1.60832 1.60867 -3.5 -2.10 0.00 9/30/2009 03:18 9/30/2009 03:19


#1
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60445 5.1 0.51 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:30
GBP/USD 1 S 1.60496 1.60467 2.9 0.29 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
GBP/USD 4 S 1.60496 1.60481 1.5 0.60 0.00 9/30/2009 02:29 9/30/2009 02:29
18 10.2 1.82 0.00
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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noone22
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Postby noone22 » Wed Sep 30, 2009 12:06 pm

jhtumblin wrote:I challenge you to start scaling INTO your winning positions instead of out of them


Could you define for poor old argentinos
what is scaling IN
and scaling OUT.

What is the difference between them
and how to actually trade (do) them?
And why there are better than nothing?

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Wed Sep 30, 2009 3:10 pm

NY Session:
-2.5%

Yes, the ONLY thing that matters is P/L.

So money IS real !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hmmmmm

Thanks for the input but I'm not in the mood to reply right now.
This was soooooo easy last month.
Now I can't do didly.

I've got to practice(perfect practice) exits, exits, exits, exits, until I am consistent according to what I see fit.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Wed Sep 30, 2009 3:41 pm

A view of what I SEE.
Exit practice on a re-trace scalp.

I sold at the breakout line, price broke against me so I waited for the candle to close.
Next candle was my exit candle but closed down strong, so I held.
Next candle closed down but had a big lower wick, not good for shorts.
Next candle was a dragon fly doji. Price IS moving up and it did.
I exited with -0.4 pips.
We then had a churn bar/doji/up bar/up bar.

Max profit seen was +1.6


Image
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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