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es/pip
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prochargedmopar wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Just throwing this out in the open.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

This is the system I used when trading live with a buddy from Jam.

If 10 pips is the retracement we are using then 15 pips is a real move.
If there is a small retracement on the chart of 15 pips then we have to ask for more than 10 pips.
Whatever we asked for was assumed to be 2/3 of a real move.
If we asked for 12 then 18 pips was a real move.

1. wait for a real move.
2. enter on a retracement
3. use a SL of half the largest of the small retracements.
4. target the smallest retracement size or multiples of the smallest.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

I am not sure I understand. (I have read this 10 times.)

Where are you getting 77 and 66 from? I see 11 * 7 = 77. But I don't think that is "it".

I am just referring to possible winners vs possible losers where winners are +11 and losers are -7.
It was meant as an example as I do not care to give play by play atm.

Yeah, no play by play required.
The boxes speak volumes.

+72.7 total today.
+3.25%

I tried the retrace thingy but will have to keep working on it.
My main concern at this point is NOT losing money.
I reverted back to trading the reversal of breakouts even though the direction of trend trades were in the back of my mind. Doh.
My 2nd to last trade I went bonkers when g/u broke against me.
Sigh.
After getting so many wins in a row (only the -.4 during news) I get pretty up tight about continued success.

I let it break about 20 pips and added a couple, ah, few positions...+15 pips right there on that "failed" trade.

Gotta figure out what it is that won't allow me to take a 5 to 10 pip loss somtimes.

GBP/USD 1 B 1.58897 1.58932 3.5 0.35 0.00 10/2/2009 11:06 10/2/2009 11:07
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59320 1.59155 16.5 3.30 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59309 1.59155 15.4 3.08 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58997 1.59155 -15.8 -3.16 0.00 10/2/2009 09:48 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59056 1.59155 -9.9 -1.98 0.00 10/2/2009 09:49 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59284 1.59155 12.9 2.58 0.00 10/2/2009 09:51 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58789 1.58766 2.3 0.46 0.00 10/2/2009 09:31 10/2/2009 09:33
EUR/JPY 2 S 129.588 129.515 7.3 1.64 0.00 10/2/2009 09:18 10/2/2009 09:21
EUR/JPY 2 B 129.365 129.389 2.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 09:09 10/2/2009 09:10
EUR/JPY 1 B 129.478 129.474 -0.4 -0.04 0.00 10/2/2009 08:45 10/2/2009 08:48
GBP/USD 1 S 1.58548 1.58512 3.6 0.36 0.00 10/2/2009 08:42 10/2/2009 08:43
GBP/USD 1 B 1.58144 1.58198 5.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 08:34 10/2/2009 08:34
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58724 1.58743 1.9 0.38 0.00 10/2/2009 03:45 10/2/2009 03:47
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58739 1.58783 4.4 0.88 0.00 10/2/2009 03:27 10/2/2009 03:32
EUR/JPY 2 S 130.298 130.285 1.3 0.29 0.00 10/2/2009 02:23 10/2/2009 02:33
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.050 129.957 9.3 1.04 0.00 10/1/2009 20:50 10/1/2009 20:52
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.048 129.953 9.5 1.06 0.00 10/1/2009 20:39 10/1/2009 20:41
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.940 129.921 1.9 0.21 0.00 10/1/2009 20:36 10/1/2009 20:39
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.927 129.915 1.2 0.13 0.00 10/1/2009 20:32 10/1/2009 20:32
30 72.7 11.66 0.00

you are going to have to stop averaging into losers

sometimes it gets you out ok and then other times well you see what can happen

those few losers that you are able to turn into winners is not worth a blown account-----EVER

would you trade that way with a 500k account?

the whole purpose of dropping your size and building the foundation is to allow one to build the correct "habits" and feel comfortable with just trading and not worrying about the \$\$\$\$

you are defeating the purpose by doing it this way
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

TheRumpledOne
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Pro should still be in TIME OUT.

pablo101
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[quote="prochargedmopar"]

[highlight=red]+72.7 total today.
+3.25%[/highlight]

Hey nice one!

[highlight=red]My main concern at this point is NOT losing money.[/highlight]

I think your concern is to grow money, you're going to lose some anyway so u shouldn't focus on the losing ones

[highlight=red]I reverted back to trading the reversal of breakouts even though the direction of trend trades were in the back of my mind. [/highlight]

prochargedmopar
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pablo101 wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:
[highlight=red]+72.7 total today.
+3.25%[/highlight]

Hey nice one!

[highlight=red]My main concern at this point is NOT losing money.[/highlight]

I think your concern is to grow money, you're going to lose some anyway so u shouldn't focus on the losing ones

[highlight=red]I reverted back to trading the reversal of breakouts even though the direction of trend trades were in the back of my mind. [/highlight]

People just don't understand.
Not losing money is another way of saying.......minimize my losses.

Also, everyone is saying that I keep changing my strategy.
I've always traded the same strategy and continue to do so.
I't s simple.
If I think price is gonna go up or continue up I buy,
If I think price is gonna go down or continue down I sell.
Is there anything else to do??????
Isn't that what everyone else does?

I know I'll hear it for not having a "method" or a "system".
Oh well.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!

prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
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es/pip wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Just throwing this out in the open.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

This is the system I used when trading live with a buddy from Jam.

If 10 pips is the retracement we are using then 15 pips is a real move.
If there is a small retracement on the chart of 15 pips then we have to ask for more than 10 pips.
Whatever we asked for was assumed to be 2/3 of a real move.
If we asked for 12 then 18 pips was a real move.

1. wait for a real move.
2. enter on a retracement
3. use a SL of half the largest of the small retracements.
4. target the smallest retracement size or multiples of the smallest.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

I am not sure I understand. (I have read this 10 times.)

Where are you getting 77 and 66 from? I see 11 * 7 = 77. But I don't think that is "it".

I am just referring to possible winners vs possible losers where winners are +11 and losers are -7.
It was meant as an example as I do not care to give play by play atm.

Yeah, no play by play required.
The boxes speak volumes.

+72.7 total today.
+3.25%

I tried the retrace thingy but will have to keep working on it.
My main concern at this point is NOT losing money.
I reverted back to trading the reversal of breakouts even though the direction of trend trades were in the back of my mind. Doh.
My 2nd to last trade I went bonkers when g/u broke against me.
Sigh.
After getting so many wins in a row (only the -.4 during news) I get pretty up tight about continued success.

I let it break about 20 pips and added a couple, ah, few positions...+15 pips right there on that "failed" trade.

Gotta figure out what it is that won't allow me to take a 5 to 10 pip loss somtimes.

GBP/USD 1 B 1.58897 1.58932 3.5 0.35 0.00 10/2/2009 11:06 10/2/2009 11:07
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59320 1.59155 16.5 3.30 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59309 1.59155 15.4 3.08 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58997 1.59155 -15.8 -3.16 0.00 10/2/2009 09:48 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59056 1.59155 -9.9 -1.98 0.00 10/2/2009 09:49 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59284 1.59155 12.9 2.58 0.00 10/2/2009 09:51 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58789 1.58766 2.3 0.46 0.00 10/2/2009 09:31 10/2/2009 09:33
EUR/JPY 2 S 129.588 129.515 7.3 1.64 0.00 10/2/2009 09:18 10/2/2009 09:21
EUR/JPY 2 B 129.365 129.389 2.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 09:09 10/2/2009 09:10
EUR/JPY 1 B 129.478 129.474 -0.4 -0.04 0.00 10/2/2009 08:45 10/2/2009 08:48
GBP/USD 1 S 1.58548 1.58512 3.6 0.36 0.00 10/2/2009 08:42 10/2/2009 08:43
GBP/USD 1 B 1.58144 1.58198 5.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 08:34 10/2/2009 08:34
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58724 1.58743 1.9 0.38 0.00 10/2/2009 03:45 10/2/2009 03:47
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58739 1.58783 4.4 0.88 0.00 10/2/2009 03:27 10/2/2009 03:32
EUR/JPY 2 S 130.298 130.285 1.3 0.29 0.00 10/2/2009 02:23 10/2/2009 02:33
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.050 129.957 9.3 1.04 0.00 10/1/2009 20:50 10/1/2009 20:52
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.048 129.953 9.5 1.06 0.00 10/1/2009 20:39 10/1/2009 20:41
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.940 129.921 1.9 0.21 0.00 10/1/2009 20:36 10/1/2009 20:39
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.927 129.915 1.2 0.13 0.00 10/1/2009 20:32 10/1/2009 20:32
30 72.7 11.66 0.00

you are going to have to stop averaging into losers

sometimes it gets you out ok and then other times well you see what can happen

those few losers that you are able to turn into winners is not worth a blown account-----EVER

would you trade that way with a 500k account?

the whole purpose of dropping your size and building the foundation is to allow one to build the correct "habits" and feel comfortable with just trading and not worrying about the \$\$\$\$

you are defeating the purpose by doing it this way

Yes Sir,
You are correct.

That is why even though I made 72ish pips today I was very upset about it.
Not only because I could have easily made 3x that or more.
But mostly because of the trade that I did not let go of for a loss.

I made 70ish pips 2 days in a row.
Well, both stunk. The first day I added on 2 trades and the 2nd day I added on one.

Maybe Monday I will add nonce..........

Some people would have been happy to have ONLY one losing trade of -.4 pips.

NOT ME.

Equity curve is the only thing that matters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not having any BIG losing days will take care of that.
As I've said before. making pips is easy, keeping them is the ultimate goal.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!

pablo101
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 841
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2009 3:10 pm
Reputation: 2
Real name: Pete
Gender:
Come on PRO, you're not happy.... with 72pips???? you make me cry

prochargedmopar wrote:
es/pip wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Just throwing this out in the open.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

This is the system I used when trading live with a buddy from Jam.

If 10 pips is the retracement we are using then 15 pips is a real move.
If there is a small retracement on the chart of 15 pips then we have to ask for more than 10 pips.
Whatever we asked for was assumed to be 2/3 of a real move.
If we asked for 12 then 18 pips was a real move.

1. wait for a real move.
2. enter on a retracement
3. use a SL of half the largest of the small retracements.
4. target the smallest retracement size or multiples of the smallest.

If you enter on a 10 pip retracement with a 7 pip SL and an 11 pip target what is your draw down?

+77 less 14?
+66 less 21?

I am not sure I understand. (I have read this 10 times.)

Where are you getting 77 and 66 from? I see 11 * 7 = 77. But I don't think that is "it".

I am just referring to possible winners vs possible losers where winners are +11 and losers are -7.
It was meant as an example as I do not care to give play by play atm.

Yeah, no play by play required.
The boxes speak volumes.

+72.7 total today.
+3.25%

I tried the retrace thingy but will have to keep working on it.
My main concern at this point is NOT losing money.
I reverted back to trading the reversal of breakouts even though the direction of trend trades were in the back of my mind. Doh.
My 2nd to last trade I went bonkers when g/u broke against me.
Sigh.
After getting so many wins in a row (only the -.4 during news) I get pretty up tight about continued success.

I let it break about 20 pips and added a couple, ah, few positions...+15 pips right there on that "failed" trade.

Gotta figure out what it is that won't allow me to take a 5 to 10 pip loss somtimes.

GBP/USD 1 B 1.58897 1.58932 3.5 0.35 0.00 10/2/2009 11:06 10/2/2009 11:07
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59320 1.59155 16.5 3.30 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59309 1.59155 15.4 3.08 0.00 10/2/2009 09:52 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58997 1.59155 -15.8 -3.16 0.00 10/2/2009 09:48 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59056 1.59155 -9.9 -1.98 0.00 10/2/2009 09:49 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.59284 1.59155 12.9 2.58 0.00 10/2/2009 09:51 10/2/2009 09:54
GBP/USD 2 S 1.58789 1.58766 2.3 0.46 0.00 10/2/2009 09:31 10/2/2009 09:33
EUR/JPY 2 S 129.588 129.515 7.3 1.64 0.00 10/2/2009 09:18 10/2/2009 09:21
EUR/JPY 2 B 129.365 129.389 2.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 09:09 10/2/2009 09:10
EUR/JPY 1 B 129.478 129.474 -0.4 -0.04 0.00 10/2/2009 08:45 10/2/2009 08:48
GBP/USD 1 S 1.58548 1.58512 3.6 0.36 0.00 10/2/2009 08:42 10/2/2009 08:43
GBP/USD 1 B 1.58144 1.58198 5.4 0.54 0.00 10/2/2009 08:34 10/2/2009 08:34
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58724 1.58743 1.9 0.38 0.00 10/2/2009 03:45 10/2/2009 03:47
GBP/USD 2 B 1.58739 1.58783 4.4 0.88 0.00 10/2/2009 03:27 10/2/2009 03:32
EUR/JPY 2 S 130.298 130.285 1.3 0.29 0.00 10/2/2009 02:23 10/2/2009 02:33
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.050 129.957 9.3 1.04 0.00 10/1/2009 20:50 10/1/2009 20:52
EUR/JPY 1 S 130.048 129.953 9.5 1.06 0.00 10/1/2009 20:39 10/1/2009 20:41
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.940 129.921 1.9 0.21 0.00 10/1/2009 20:36 10/1/2009 20:39
EUR/JPY 1 S 129.927 129.915 1.2 0.13 0.00 10/1/2009 20:32 10/1/2009 20:32
30 72.7 11.66 0.00

you are going to have to stop averaging into losers

sometimes it gets you out ok and then other times well you see what can happen

those few losers that you are able to turn into winners is not worth a blown account-----EVER

would you trade that way with a 500k account?

the whole purpose of dropping your size and building the foundation is to allow one to build the correct "habits" and feel comfortable with just trading and not worrying about the \$\$\$\$

you are defeating the purpose by doing it this way

Yes Sir,
You are correct.

That is why even though I made 72ish pips today I was very upset about it.
Not only because I could have easily made 3x that or more.
But mostly because of the trade that I did not let go of for a loss.

I made 70ish pips 2 days in a row.
Well, both stunk. The first day I added on 2 trades and the 2nd day I added on one.

Maybe Monday I will add nonce..........

Some people would have been happy to have ONLY one losing trade of -.4 pips.

NOT ME.

Equity curve is the only thing that matters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not having any BIG losing days will take care of that.
As I've said before. making pips is easy, keeping them is the ultimate goal.

prochargedmopar
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Posts: 6026
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You know,

Sometimes a great offense in your best defense.
Most times a great offense will Improve or greatly enhance your defense.
Think of a superb running game in football, It takes a HUGE load off your defense.
Well, long runs and big winners in the market will keep you out of the market that much more. Your time in drawdown will be much less so you'll have less of a chance to screw it up.
Also, what is the big deal about closing out a trade for -11 when you've just had 2 winners of say 37 and 120???
But what if you had 7 wins for 21 pips total.
That makes taking 1 15 pips stop that much harder to swallow.

If I will allow my winners to run it will make the losers that much more inconsequential.

DOUBLE EDGED SWORD!!!
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!

es/pip
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you have to get over the fear of losing money on a trade

it is ok to do so it is not the end of the world

i think i had 2(small) losers and 4 b/e today but i made a large amount of pips

but

what you need to realize is whatever you are doing on a small lot size you will do on a large lot size---whether it is good or bad

once you make this work lets say your account is 500k and you are making 10% a day-------- are you going to risk all of that by averaging into a loser and risk everything just so you can get out at b/e and say you didn't have a loser?

i sure as hell hope not

just think about it logically -------- it is just stupid to do that--- so don't do it anymore

you have to treat your small account as u would a large account so when you grow your account you will not do stupid things and have to start over.

from now on if you EVER average down then you punish yourself by not allowing yourself to trade the next day-------------as much as you love trading you will only do it once or twice and then never do it again

make it a rule

Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 6026
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Location: Granbury, TX
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es/pip wrote:you have to get over the fear of losing money on a trade

it is ok to do so it is not the end of the world

i think i had 2(small) losers and 4 b/e today but i made a large amount of pips

but

what you need to realize is whatever you are doing on a small lot size you will do on a large lot size---whether it is good or bad

once you make this work lets say your account is 500k and you are making 10% a day-------- are you going to risk all of that by averaging into a loser and risk everything just so you can get out at b/e and say you didn't have a loser?

i sure as hell hope not

just think about it logically -------- it is just stupid to do that--- so don't do it anymore

you have to treat your small account as u would a large account so when you grow your account you will not do stupid things and have to start over.

from now on if you EVER average down then you punish yourself by not allowing yourself to trade the next day-------------as much as you love trading you will only do it once or twice and then never do it again

make it a rule

Ouch.
That would suck. LOL

Ok then.

3 choices:
A. exit with small loss
B. exit with large loss
C. avg down to get out at b/e

Results from choices above:
A. still in the game
B. Could take 2 days to make up for loss
C. Possible blown account and No trading the following day

From a discretionary point of view and if it's within the rules of my trading plan.............(future plan)

Sometimes I feel I would like to exit 2/3 of a position at a small loss, then add back into the position at a much better price. I could then add more when price gets back to the original entry point(already being in profit) if the trade is still on tract to succeed and I feel market conditions have not changed.

I will try this later after I prove I can stay in control while facing the prospects of a possible losing trade.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!

prochargedmopar
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Would you Buy or Sell based on this Price Action?

Let?s say you had to buy or sell the MHI (mini-Hang Seng index futures), based on the following 1-minute chart. Which would you choose? Take a second or two to make your decision before reading on.

Ok, let?s conduct some analysis to find the 'right' answer.

And because we all love indicators, we?ll place some on the chart to help guide our decision making.

The chart below clearly shows that while the session gapped up at the open it sold off strongly, developing into a downtrend. Recent price action has broken the previous swing low on increasing volume, with the MACD histogram crossing below the zero line to indicate bearish momentum.

Clearly, this is bearish, and this market is going lower. This is a SELL signal.

Or is it?

What if we looked at it differently?

With a slight change of indicators (see below), the same chart shows a bullish scenario.

While there has been a downtrend in place since the open, momentum has clearly slowed. The strong break down to new lows at around 12:15 (mid chart) was not able to follow through to lower prices, indicating some buying support. The current price swing has brought us down to retest that area, with a lower tail again indicating some level of rejection of the lower prices (although we do acknowledge that the tail is small). We?re now positioned at the lower Bollinger band support with stochastics oversold and turning up. Volume increasing dramatically on increased candle range after an extended move down into support indicates a potential climactic reversal.

This is a great bullish setup, either for an immediate entry in anticipation of the level holding, or perhaps a stop entry on breakout of the candle high if you prefer confirmation. This is clearly a BUY signal!

So, which way did the market go?

While it?s not relevant to the point of the article, I know I?ll get email complaints if I just leave you hanging like this, so you?ll find the chart at the bottom of the article. Price did go up to retest the previous swing high.

So, what am I getting at here?

Your analysis, no matter how skilled, is still just your point of view. Your assessment of any directional bias, and ultimately your entry or exit decisions, are based on your mental model of the markets; your beliefs about how the markets work.

We don?t trade the markets. We trade our model of the markets. And a model, no matter how accurate, is still just an approximation of the market.

And you?re trading against other traders who have examined the same information as you and developed a completely opposite opinion.

It is possible to assess both a bullish and a bearish bias to any market at any time, in particular when allowing analysis over different timeframes or analysis methodologies.

Neither assessment is right. Neither is wrong. They?re just different ways of analysing the same price action. Both may profit depending on holding times, despite their completely opposite entry direction. Likewise, both may lose, once again depending on the trade exit.

It?s very important to understand this. We make our trading decisions based on our analysis; analysis which is based on an imperfect model of the markets, and carried out by an imperfect analyst, subject to numerous human performance limitations in the area of perception and memory, and subject to numerous decision making errors through the heuristics and biases that cloud our judgment.

We trade based on very flimsy evidence.

If you want to make it in this game, get rid of any thoughts that technical analysis is some form of magical predictor of future price direction. And the same goes for any other form of analysis, whether fundamental, quantitative, planetary or whatever else turns you on.

When you make your entry decision, someone else is likely making an opposite decision, based on exactly the same evidence.

This is not to say you shouldn?t use technical analysis. We have to use some means of assessing the higher probability opportunities in the market. And we should spend a significant amount of time improving our market model; understanding market context and price flow.

But when you hit that buy or sell button and enter your trade, it doesn?t matter how good your analysis was. It?s now a whole different game ? trade management. Managing risk, because it?ll often be the other guy who?s right, and maximising opportunity, for those times when fortune has smiled on you.

Lance.