I CAN'T STOP DRAINING THE BANKS... I'M ADDICTED!!
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thanks for the explanation but what are these number 4,5 and where do we get them fromeudamonia wrote:I won't speak for Avery, but here is my take on the DTB.
First, let me explain what the purpose of the method is. Without understanding the market dynamics behind a trading setup it is difficult to see WHY it works.
There are 2 major phases to the markets - breakout/trending and consolidation/reversal.
The DTB actually has the ability to point out both of these phases, however, the Semaphores are primarily designed to catch reversals.
Why do markets trend and reverse? It is not FUNDAMENTALS, or SECRET BANKS, or MOON PHASES, or TECHNICAL INDICATORS, it is EMOTIONS. The markets are driven by people, who are not rational, despite what economists would have you believe.
Emotionally, breakouts occur when the market is in a range. This happens because of FEAR (from those in the range) and GREED (from those who desire to find a new price point).
Emotionally, reversals occur when the market is trending. The longer the trend in one uninterrupted direction, the greater the reversal will be. This happens because of FEAR (from those on the wrong side of the trade) and GREED (those who hopped on the bandwagon too late).
How does the DTB help you see EMOTION? When the market has been moving in a consolidation pattern (a sideways channel), and breaks above the 3, then the 4 etc. you are seeing a trend underway. You can play the breakout itself, a meaningful reversal, or just wait for the trend to end. When the market has been trending for some time and reaches a 4 or a 5 there is a very high probability that the trend will reverse. When price has bumped against the semaphore 3 or 4 times you will often see price STALL. This is very often after what I call the "barf", where a final heavy selling/buying occurs in the trend direction. Here the other side has capitulated and greedy trend hoppers are catching a piece. NOW is when to FADE the trend.
Understand that you are trading based on EMOTIONS. Not your own (hopefully) but those of others. Much like a game of poker you must understand your opponent's fears and hopes. Only by doing this will you receive the pips your after. Good luck.
Edward