2009.03.17 TRO - NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!

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PTG
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Re: TRO_Range_Count

Postby PTG » Fri Apr 10, 2009 8:27 pm

zora_ wrote:Hi,

Can anyone please help to locate TRO_Range_Count?
I had spent 1hr googling, but to no avail...
Is this donational indicator?

Thank you.

Zora


Zora,

It's a donational. Hope that helps !

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Postby kc8flq » Fri Apr 10, 2009 9:09 pm

shuaib wrote:
Bigpipn wrote:The .25, .50, .75, .00 strategy is ridiculously accurate on cable and euro-yen. I almost feel retarded not realizing it before. Thanks for that TRO!!
please how do we draw the lines or is there any indicator for it

Thanks



SweetSpotsGOLD is the indicator you're looking for to draw the lines @ those levels.
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Postby razorboy » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:16 am

I played the semifor exclusively for about 3 to 4 weeks across a variety of currencies.(up to 10 positions open at once) I would enter reversal trades on the hour following the 2 or 3 and get out on the 1.

What the semifor doesn't account for is momentum - I found essentially with the semifor, and I wasn't scalping, is that if you ignore momentum, you sometimes end up going around in a circle - especially because sometimes your SLs will be huge and other times you will get a huge 100 point run in your favor -

I was using 1 hour chart exclusively for this and it was a painful few weeks as you need to play almost 24 7 as if you miss a move, that could be your profit for the week

This is an approach that should probably work better in a trending market than ranging, but limiting the number of trades you make will keep you out of trouble - there will always be breakouts that you will be on the wrong side of with this approach - again what protects you here is your SL and money management - remember at the end of the week if you make 1% on your capital, you are looking at an annualized non-compounded return of 52% a year




pierre23 wrote:
"What if you get a 1,2,3 at the top or bottom and you switch to 15 min chart and price has already passed the the trigger line"


When you see a 1/2/3 form price won't have passed the trigger line yet. It's dynamic, when a new 1/2/3 forms I'm pretty sure the trigger will re-adjust. As well as what tro said, have both charts up at the same time for quick access =]


"Thursday morning, on the GU, this would have been unfortunate. I would argue that it is preferable to go long instead of short, depending on the 'steam' behind the movement. The GU required 7 hours for the 3 semafor to repaint before it finally found its top. On the chat is was also confirmed that it can be quite painful doing what you said above."


How many cases will you get of a '3' continually being shown for new levels of high over 7hours.. As well as you should have your stop loss in place as per your money management rules. This was all stated on the first post.

Also; you don't have to enter at every chance you get.. you're then just begging to have a loss, whether it be larger or smaller then your previous profits.

I have been watching the charts here at work for the past few hours and I've seen multiple times for decent profit if I had entered when the alerts came up. There were 2-3 alerts within the past 1-2 hours - all 3 good for at least 10pips.

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Postby razorboy » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:26 am

Remember, this is scalping -

Obviously wait until you get a go short or long signal after a 3, but what I have found to be the biggest challenge is actually physically executing the trades and the difference in price that exists if you are using a demo metatrader account and a say an micro FXCM account

Often when price surges up into a new high - say a 3 forms - there is often a good amount of recoil after the initial surge - this is what you are going to scalp - part of me wants to give some advice here on looking at the candle patterns and the momentum, but that would defeat the simplicity of the system.

If you manage to make 40 to 50% on your capital, i suppose then you can start "tweaking" things

pierre23 wrote:
marcromero wrote:

How could one determine which direction to trade after a (3) semaphore on H1 ?


Easy, If on the H1 chart price is moving up and you get a 1,2 or 3 you are looking for a short at the trigger line on the 15 min chart, if price is moving down and you get a 1,2 or 3 on the H1 chart then you are looking for a long at the trigger line on the 15 min chart.


I see where he's coming from - I think he means when a '3' is formed, most of the time price will keep pushing it until it runs out of 'steam' and heads back the other way. Therefore if your at the charts and you see a '3' pop up, personally I would wait a bit.. until you can see price heading back down at least. OR you could enter as per the original rules and use your money management and SL to not lose too much IF the price does continue rising or falling; pushing that '3'

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:29 am

razorboy:

When you see a "3" appear on the H1, be prepared for a 20+ pip breakout BEFORE PRICE REVERSES.

So, trade WITH the breakout, then trade the reversal.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby razorboy » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:45 am

Learned that quite well, can also happen with the 2's. That is why I would always wait until the hour after the 2 or 3 formed to enter into a reversal trade, otherwise I would have gotten whipsawed viciously - price can still move against you, but looking at it from a scalping perspective, its probably a more reliable play

I suspect that if you can some how quantify the rate of price change in an indicator and then break it down statistically you can quantify the actual velocity of price - I know there are rate of change indicators, but havent played with them much



TheRumpledOne wrote:razorboy:

When you see a "3" appear on the H1, be prepared for a 20+ pip breakout BEFORE PRICE REVERSES.

So, trade WITH the breakout, then trade the reversal.

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Postby razorboy » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:51 am

that is the 64,000 dollar question so to speak - when does the market shift from trending to ranging - and having read some of the "professional" literature, it is obvious that no one can really tell with any sort of reliability, save for the very few.................


eudamonia wrote:Playing breakouts (or fading reversals) works great during trending markets as we've had for the past few days.

Playing fades (fading breakouts) works great during nontrending markets which are the norm 80% of the time.

Understanding market dynamics and when we are likely to be trending/reversing = priceless.

Edward

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Postby zora_ » Sat Apr 11, 2009 7:28 am

No wonder I can't find it.

Thank you very much PTG. :D

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Postby Humble » Sat Apr 11, 2009 8:17 am

You could put a fractal indicator on the same chart as the semafor and only consider trading the semafor reversal when the fractal appears. Or ask TRO to code a semafor that paints one completed bar in arrears or maybe two completed bars in arrears the same as the fractal.

Perhaps a user input as to x number of bars for the loop back.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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Postby razorboy » Sat Apr 11, 2009 11:25 am

Pro

you are asking the wrong questions. Ask TRO what is trade management rules are you may get the insight you are looking for. He has alluded to it a few times.

I get the sense that you are probably using position sizes that are too large relative to your account and possibly misinterpreting the idea of SL's. But before i make that assumption, how do you manage your trades?

Let's try this, hey, TRO, can you provide some advice on trade management?

thanks
prochargedmopar wrote:TRO,
I know I've been around a while and should know the rules but I don't.
You know, my mind has been scattered and filling it with all kinds of "systems".

You are really, really, draining the bank. I look at all this and see the other noobs with less than 2 weeks and they consitently get close to 100 pips a day.

What are the rules?
I don't mean the rules for "noobs" to be safe. I want to know what rules YOUR using to do all this draining.
What do you impose upon yourself personally to say I"m taking this trade but not that trade?
H1 IS BOGUS. I CAN see that. I would not be able to take reversals unless I sat there all day waiting for it. Breakouts? Wait for #3 semaphor on H1 only?

Can you point me to the rules you use to drain all these pips. 100 a day looks like it would be easy pickins. Using M15 and M30 charts there is no reason a person couldn't ride a couple candes between Sup/Res. Right?

Man, I just want 5 pips a pop without having to sit through 10-15 pips drawdown each time.

Rules please, I'm trying to follow them but not even sure what they are.

I also sit there watching pip after pip roll by after it passes the triggers but I'm not in any of those trades because of the H1/D1 THUMB thingy.

How will I ever know when to take trades with DTB and when not to.
It's getting pretty pathetic as I'm FULL of info and know Huge amounts "about" the market but cannot get any pips from it.
4 months reading day and night. Seriously. 4 month's plus.

Will you simplify this for us strugglers. I know this thing has gotta click soon. It looks so easy "after" the fact. Static charts to me are a crock!!!!
Anyone can see setups looking at history. What is it that makes you be able to see that this trade has a high probabilty for success?

MP's stuff looks great if you've got a 100 pip stop and take your trade at the RIGHT time of day.
MightyOnes would be killer if I only knew which way to trade trendwise for my "avg" daily range of pips. My problem with that is I put a sitdown line and then the thing could go into consolidation or a 3hr. reversal. errrrr.

Your setup seems the most feasable but I still don't know what trades to take with it.
Maybe I'll just follow the 'brains" in your system to a T and see what happens. The ok to this/ok to that signal.......But when do I override it for higher succes rates????
I see that others try this and they to get burned by taking them blindly. What are we missing?
Thanks.
Oh, BTW,
What are the rules?
I've had enough of losing/struggling and want to get that first $500 FAST.
I'm only asking for 125 pips at $4 per. I SHOULD be able to get that Thursday.

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