2009.03.17 TRO - NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!

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Bigpipn
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Postby Bigpipn » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:34 pm

eudamonia wrote:Avery,

Another jewel set of indicators to SEE the emotions of the market. Thanks!

It's so funny...all these indicators to SEE the same thing. I've been trading this way for awhile, but this indicators make it clear.

Other folks,

For those of you who are struggling to figure this out from a money management perspective try this on for size.

Your theoretical account is $10000. You want to risk 4% per trade. That's $400. Start your first trade at 10K units, the second at 30K and the final trade at 90K. I personally like to target 15 pips on the EUR, with a total trade risk of 30 pips (I don't start my count until all 3 positions are on, and from my average position if the market moves 31 pips against me I'm out). All you need to make money with this setup is to win 7/10 trades. Personally, I'm finding the win ratio closer to 90%. I've been trading this type of setup for awhile, but without the indicators (just what I SEE). Using the indicators just makes it that more clear to me, that fading EXTREME MARKET EMOTION is the key to consistent profitability.

If you are wondering, the reason why we are martingaling into this position is because the further price moves on an extreme high or low, the greater the probability that it will reverse meaningfully. Does this work all the time? No, but it doesn't need to. Before anyone asks, yes this is the opposite of what you are told to do in all the trading books. Funny how that works, huh?

Edward


I Martingaled this morning on cable and had a huge, huge down day.

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Tue Apr 07, 2009 12:53 pm

Yep this morning was an aggressive trend. My guess is you got too heavy too fast. You aren't the only one I know who got burned.

However, if you only added once per 15 minute candle you should have been fine. In fact the Euro is still heading back up.

Edward
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

Bigpipn
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Postby Bigpipn » Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:36 pm

THat was yesterday. All of the "Drain the banks" signals (on 15M) go for 2-5 pips then reverse hard. I am fading it with great results.

Bigpipn
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Postby Bigpipn » Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:37 pm

The .25, .50, .75, .00 strategy is ridiculously accurate on cable and euro-yen. I almost feel retarded not realizing it before. Thanks for that TRO!!

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Tue Apr 07, 2009 3:34 pm

Playing breakouts (or fading reversals) works great during trending markets as we've had for the past few days.

Playing fades (fading breakouts) works great during nontrending markets which are the norm 80% of the time.

Understanding market dynamics and when we are likely to be trending/reversing = priceless.

Edward
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Postby Bigpipn » Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:44 pm

Go get those micro lots off Eudamonia!

Bigpipn
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Postby Bigpipn » Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:53 pm

Here's my last 24 hours in main account..
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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:49 pm

Nice trading Bigpipn.

No shame in trading micros. It's all about the $ at the end of the day.

Edward
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

626mx
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Postby 626mx » Wed Apr 08, 2009 3:27 am

What is that? Thanks

Bigpipn wrote:The .25, .50, .75, .00 strategy is ridiculously accurate on cable and euro-yen. I almost feel retarded not realizing it before. Thanks for that TRO!!


I'm not draining the banks yet but after making sure to watch the 1 hour along with the 15 that did keep me out of trouble a few times when the price is pushing the 3 down or between the trigger and breakout on the 1 hour. Thanks
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sitaringfx
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Postby sitaringfx » Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:52 am

Hi i m new to Semafor indicator. Do I enter if 3 is shown or i can enter regardless of any number (1 or 2)? Thanks

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