My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

forex live trades, setups, charts

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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD to the enjoyment of swift swingers.

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Oct 01, 2011 5:02 pm

GBPUSD made its way to offer volatility hard to come by elsewhere.
I point out to one trigger up and its 14.208 expansion exceeded pretty much but eventually accented again. The system was desperate to get back to 1.5596.

We cannot throw suspicion on anyone in person. Yet the system clearly reacted to the presence of an otherwise invisible thin thread at 1.5596.

GBPUSD did not depart far from 1.5596 in the period of September 27-30.
Then I would like to point to one particular target of 9.1299=1.5543.
The market tested its taste on three occasions. First when it dropped only to 1.5544. Remember what I kept writing that a pip difference in chaos most often
matters very much (you may refer to the recent USDCHF chart for yet another example). GBPUSD blasted off from not exactly 9.1299. Then it descended to 9.1299 very well indeed like a trained mosquito and one more time when it stung inside and repainted semafor3.

There you have the place swollen a bit afterwards.

GBPUSD produced another alibi to mount higher. That trigger up is just above the "1" painted on the chart.
It happens quite often that during an expansions there is little or no reaction near vital areas, but on a retreat we see that there is something there indeed. Here this chart shows 4.669 to have been such a place of interest from the point of view of chaos.
GBPUSD looks heavy now under forces of gravitation.
Gravity bravissimo towards 14.208=1.5542.
Friday ended with a tone down.
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Paul&Paul
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USDCHF - the pressure upside

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:27 pm

USDCHF has been very chaotic recently (=orderly). It wasn't so a few months ago. It exemplifies cases of changing qualities of the system, changing characteristics of its behavior. The current situation is a great betterment of chaotic features of USDCHF. It is important to deal with proper chaos.
At last USDCHF is being traded by big players who boldly occupy positions in both directions. It may be a sign for a relief to SNB.

Refer to the recent GBPUSD post where I pointed to the meaning of an almost pip-to-pip expansion and a strictly pip-to-pip expansion. The point is that chaos is really exact. One pip or a few pips less to a target leads to the conclusion that there is going to be another attempt, sometimes yet another, and then the market breaks the target line in a decisive way.

USDCHF behaved much the same as GBPUSD from such an angle. Look at the 2.4220 expansion line. "1" marks that "almost-got-it" place, then "2" and "3" mark those yet other attempts, successful in this example, as USDCHF soared to 4.669 of two triggers up. 4.669 is less than double of 2.4220 because the whole process of expanding is strictly non-linear.
Non-linear but exactly the same for different currency pairs, indices, bonds or stocks. Non-linear and universal for all liquid financial markets.
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Paul&Paul
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AUDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 1:16 am

AUDUSD recovered temporarily from lows and returned to the earlier marked UPOs, yet was unable to make full 3.5699=9991 of a trigger up.

Meantime note the lower band of 4.669=9697 which, as you will see, played its role in the subsequent events.

There is a new UPO-repeller at 9677 which turned into an attractor pretty soon. 9777 attracted again and eventually AUDUSD closed a little below it on
the session of last week.
Friday ended with a bearish note.
On the slump AUDUSD ran away from a UPO @ 9962 and then 9852.
The pierced 9852 means that once bullish AUDUSD is going to go higher than that and reach 9962 again.

There are three targets close each other at
9659
9653
9649.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 1:56 am

GBPJPY broke through 120.48 which was an important UPO from September 19.
It has yet to return to another UPO @ 121.37 from September 16.

However Friday ended with a new trigger down which at 4.669 yields 118.77, the same level as 5.8664 of an earlier trigger down.

The minimum range for the new week is 121.00-118.77 (123 pips).
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Paul&Paul
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 4:15 am

EURJPY rose to 2.4220=104.76 twice and twice was rejected last week.
There is a UPO@ 104.34 to which the market is bound to return some time in the future.
Friday ended with bearish tone.
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USDPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 4:43 am

USDPLN does surprise to the upside? No. It reflects the outflow of foreign capital from Poland.
First it managed 9.1299 of a trigger up. Then we saw some sort of an intervention. I imagined the paleness of their faces. It pushed USDPLN to below 14.208 of a tiny trigger down. Then it showed a renewed pressure up.
Investor have withdrawn almost $6bn from emerging market bond and stock funds over the past week.

Striking civil servants have blocked access to Greece's statistical agency building in Athens since Tuesday. We will miss Friday's deadline for sending final debt and deficit figures for 2010 to Eurostat, the Commission and the troika because my team can't get into the building. Wow.
Now the fight is between distinguished scientists and their methodology. Statistics has always been the devil's tool. It is used even when it fails to add up. Incomparable things get compared but they should not. Inflation rates, for example.
My greatest satisfaction is training the next generation of statistical servants and slaves, someone disclosed. You can imagine their dedication to their job.
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Paul&Paul
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DJIA

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 8:05 pm

DJIA was almost at 3.5699=11292 but it wasn't 11292 to be exact.
DJIA managed 11287 only which gives us some clue that a new close at 11292 or better some time in the future will lift the index higher, at least to 4.669=11470 and 11292 should not produce an immediate threat of a retreat.

Near the recent top emerged a new trigger down, one of a few more.
Its energy was sufficient to drag the index lower, basically to 10897 of a UPO from September 26.

The market clearly reacted to that UPO which was a repeller the moment it emerged and then it turned into an attractor after the local top 11287.

Then the magnetic properties of that UPO changed several times. Having pierced that level once, it became inevitable that we would see lower prices than 10897.
At the end of the day DJIA closed decisevly lower achieving some targets, very modest in expansion of the relative triggers.
On the way down DJIA produced a UPO @ 11107 to which the market is bound to return in the future.

There appears a congested area of a number of lines attributed to some targets and these are:

10858
10842
10830
10817.
The low was 10833.

The current state of affairs is negative for longs. DJIA plummeted actually when it had just been faring very well to recover from that UPO level. It seems that investors suddenly began to respect the feelings of the street. Wall Street to be precise. It is not a frequent behaviour and it is also a betrayal of the very old canon that best investors are psychopats who care not what normal nervous people do or think.

It is not dull to observe the prisoners of optimism.
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Paul&Paul
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W20PLN (WIG20)

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:09 pm

W20PLN (WIG20).
It is not at the pinnacle of its career yet looks better than DJIA.
The two triggers marked on the first chart are the culprits of the recent slump. Both at 9.1299 of their energy yielded 2037 (done) and 1989 (not yet done).

Then it began climbing to the shock of many till 3.5699=2219. To steady my nerves I observed that it was not enough to cover the gap.

W20PLN is bound to slump to 1989, chaos tells. We do not know when, frankly. But people who have children to raise should take care of the fact.

Very perverse is that this index ended with a tone up last week. Tales of murder, violence and terror are in America a great tradition. We do not seem to be doing any progress what to do then. Who is more trustworthy, Warsaw or New York.

This optimism doesn't work with the general scenario.
Some strangers on the train pointed to the UPO @ 2215. Well, from my point of view the market returned to it was that it wanted to. They suggest
there is no story and stopped paying attention.

Nothing is said, it is all in glances.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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CHFPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:45 pm

CHFPLN.
I like it because it is quite a name and behaves well.

What should be remembered longer term is that the UPO @ 3.9375 is there to be revisited.

Here are two targets from seperate triggers:

4.1491
3.9832.
Howev er, Friday ended with a bearish tone.
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Paul&Paul
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DE30

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:00 pm

DE30 together with some fractal expansions.
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