My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

forex live trades, setups, charts

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Paul&Paul
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FTSE100

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:52 pm

FTSE100.
A little shy to go farther up, yet it has accomplished more than 5.8664 of two triggers up. It means that another fractal has showed up in the process of fractal expansion. That another fractal is the second fractal in a row of three.
The first fractal ends at 4.669, and 4.669 being the Feigenbaum's value marks
the most incredible non-linear development of a chaotic system.

FTSE100 has a passport and a visa to travel higher more. At the same time we have a trigger down which at 4.669 gives 5134.3 which in turn is below the UPO @ 5200 and above the UPO @ 5115.

The usual mantra is that FTSE100 is bound to return to those UPOs some time in the future.

So what are the nearest targets for the expansions not accomplished yet?
9.1299 of the first trigger is at 5464.8
9.1299 of the second trigger is at 5666.3.
4.669 of the big trigger is at 5492.1.

What concerns us is the existence of two giant RARs.
The first RAR (774.1 pips) appeared July11-15, followed by a smaller RAR
(129.8 pips). These artefacts are owed to gigantic selling from the seconf half of July.

5.8664 times 129.8 pips=820.1 pips and so we get 4912.7. See where it got them. You do not need a magnifying glass to see that those shorts were covered on September 22. Perhaps not all of them but quite a lot. They did a good job doing so.

What pushed them, what bothered them might not have been the knowledge of the 5.8664 border of chaos. But they behaved like that near that border.

Neither the border nor the action or the reaction are coincidential.
Something is very sour that perhaps we know too many things too late. I would sympathize with the first part of the supposition. I would absolutely disagree that we know them too late.

For reference study some other charts attached and keep them for a while before you put them into a basket.

Those determinants will develop the market for some days if not weeks ahead. Take note of those levels, the UPOs. When the time is ripe and someone knocks at your door with a UPO on a plate, you will know that it
is good cuisine and the recipe is familiar and the ingredients best before anything else.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:07 pm

EURUSD.
Just a thought from a friend who said that such simple returns to a UPO like the one on the chart attached are meant for those lucky fools who had by sheer luck opened their longs without any drawdown whatsoever. Scared to death they probably closed on a stoploss.

Took some time before I noticed that... really what a curious remark it was.
There is no good reason for fools to make (a lot of) money. It just does not add up in a natural way.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:14 pm

EURJPY could have been dragged down from 14.208=104.95, yet it managed to break higher on a third attempt. Let us not grudge that it did, why it did and so on.

The great mystery of chaos is that we will encounter countless market developments which can raise our brows due to non-linear dynamics and specifically due to the Madelbrot set which incorporates all Julia sets. The mathematics of chaos tells us that we will be surprised more and more because we normally do not imagine so many scenarios as they may be ready in the system.

Simple systems like buy or standby or sell on a single pair of currencies are just too simplistic for a chaotic system. One may require to hold several positions at the same time in different directions. It is not a bizzarre proposal. It is well founded by what chaos and its mathematics prompt. It is bizzarre only from the point of view of a poorly-funded account.

I am quite unhappy to reiterate that managed accounts have greater winning power that single accounts. Funds have greater winning power than
individual retailers. More money can do more.

For chaos is creative and to follow its art we need means, sometimes more than we imagined in the beginning. It has nothing to do with averaging.

EURJPY went higher and note that when it broke 104.95 it also marked a UPO. The meaning of it is that the action was turbulent in nature (not all breakouts are turbulent flows though). Those lucky fools who went long then were triumphant. A new position in a place like that without a drawdown? Wonderful.

Yet somehow the market does not like such lucky fools at all. It dispises all such nasty winners to such an extent, so intensely that there is usually a return to such a UPO, a close encounter to alert even the most foolish fools of all. To make them close their once winning positions. More often than not to wave them goodbye.

EURJPY tried to scare them turning downside after 106.90, almost to death when it came nearer and nearer 104.93. It did not in the end. 105.08 was the local low but it must have upset many good trades.

Some big names had plenty of time to close above 5.8664=106.32 of the big trigger up (74 pips). Byt EURJPY was eager to continue climbing higher and Friday ended with a tone bullish despite semafor3 painted there.

The reason could be very prosaic. Someone is in a hurry to see EURJPY higher. Usually somebody who is exposed to unlimited risk. WE need to examine the recent history of EURJPY to detect a UPO-repeller, in layman's words a selling spot of specific power.

On inspection I detected two UPO levels:
107.82 and 108.17 from September 8-9.

The hunt is for 107.82 and 108.17 should EURJPY be climbing higher.
Attachments
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GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Oct 15, 2011 8:50 pm

GBPUSD completed 5.8664=1.5843 on Friday and the last session ended with a bullish tone despite semafor3 painted .

Pay attention to action labeled 1-2-3 and the blue triangle.
GBPUSD returned to UPO @ 1.5672.

GBPUSD penetrated 1.5672 but failed to close below. It means strength yet once it nears it another time, it will be not to recover quickly.

There is a similar but more hygienic action connected with UPO @ 1.5710.
Attachments
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:13 pm

EURUSD.
Once again please refer to the 102-pip trigger up from October 4.
On Friday it completed 5.8664=1.3888.

The story here is very similar to that of GBPUSD and it gives rise to suspect American origin, or being more specific: it was the dollar, fool, not the EUR or GBP.

Formally watch action 1-2-3 around the blue triangle. There was not a trace of coincidence in that. It is not an allegation. It is a fact detected by chaos.
Someone was worried by the dollar too strong recently. Someone must have been very critical about the issue.

The street protests here and there however, are not linked to the currency market.
Friday ended with a bullish note. Too many bulls and not a trace of a cow could be a problem sooner or later. The bulls are heading where few have treaded before.
Attachments
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WIG20

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:53 pm

WIG20 closed with a bullish tone last week. This optimism will be enhanced when the market breaks through 2327. It will need this if the trigger up of 45 pips is to expand farther than to 5.8664=2322.

The nearest target from the topside is located at 2355=14.208, followed by 2421=14.208.

WIG20 marked two UPOs before it soared up and those lucky fools are extremely lucky at the moment. To irk them I have something looming from 2322/2327. The blue triangle shows selling, far from casual. It was premeditated
to the finest detail. So despite the optimism from the way it closed, this triangular shape is a serious warning signal.
Closes below its low (2272) will be considered dramatically alarming to buyers. One should expect a lot of stops located near 2272 and below.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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CHFPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:28 pm

Not much strength in CHFPLN.
The south bound direction offers some respite to SF credit holders.
Look at the UPO @ 3.5223 and what happened there on October 11.
There can be no doubt that PNB launched a preemptive attack on everyone taking a contrarian trade.
Signs of weakness are more, it suffices to point to the most important.
CHFPLN should make 4.669 of the 835-pip trigger down from September 6. It got to 3.5699=3.4535 pretty fast but now it is trading between the 3.5223 line and above 3.4535.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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OIL

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:40 pm

OIL at 3.5699=111.63.
Friday ended with a bullish tone.
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USDPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:48 pm

USDPLN is to complete 9.1299 of two triggers down and those expansions are at 3.0835 and 3.0354.

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USDCHF

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:38 pm

USDCHF is challenging both traders and analysts. It is a difficult piece of cake.
We will start from a trigger down (37 pips) from October 10
which expanded 5.8664 in the first leg of fractal expansions. USDCHF slumped to 9014 almost in a simple wave. It plummetted pretty late after posting a semafor3 near 9300.
The first chart shows clearly 5.8664 accentuated by a sharp reaction which in turn took USDCHF nowhere.
It was a periscopic rally and eventually USDCHF submerged again and dived deeper.
The second chart shows the current sutuation as at the end of last week.
9.1299 of the said trigger yields 8894. USDCHF did not sink that far. The low was 8902. Almost 9.1299 is not the same as exactly 9.1299 or slightly more.
Chaos forces us to expect 8894 some time later in the future. A semasfor3 is there, alright. It will be repainted if USDCHF quickly slumps more than to 8902.

Take note what happened after posting a UPO at 9018. The market returned to it in the course of one day but was unable to sustain recovery. Another UPO @ 9070 is left intact. The market is bound to return to it some time in the future. In the meantime, the greenback is still weakening against the SF.

Friday ended with a bullish tone.

On the third chart you will find just two triggers. The trigger down expanded exactly 4.669 times. The trigger up, situated in quite a strange place, yielded only 2.4220=9027 so far but note that its 4.669 expansion would take USDCHF exactly to the UPO @ 9070.

USDCHF shows that triggers may not necessarily occur near a local top or bottom and subsequent fractal developments may not imitate any familiar Elliott wave.
Attachments
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