My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

forex live trades, setups, charts

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Paul&Paul
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DE30

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:05 am

DE30 soared oh boy almost to 2.4220 of a giant trigger up. The structure of this rise is simple so the market may develop complex retracements in the weeks ahead.

People haven't changed a bit. One day terribly worried, another day treating the maket the way hairdressers treat their clients. Very tempted to fancy something very original. Good stylists haven't been nervous and obviously must be proud of their achievements. Give hairdressers more jelly to fix it.

Do join them if you can. There is enough energy to touch 2.4220 and to make more. There is no guarantee that this energy doesn't fizzle out.

We have been contemplating so many extreme situations and this move by six central banks not event driven but precautionary, why don't they behave diligently like that always? So much we owe to so few.
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DJIA

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:45 am

DJIA is to complete 4.669=11438.
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USDCHF

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:19 am

USDCHF in its highest intensity shows determination to respect both targets as well as UPOs (repellers).

The drahma is not to return for the time being.
Global stock markets have reacted positively.
Central banks have dollars to lend. Not to every trader, by the way. They are selective in this respect which will inevitably raise questions whether this move and some others do not tarnish the memory of democracy and free market.

It is oh 4 six GMT. I am not particularly nervous about the eurozone given the fact how well the problem is tackled in terms of a language. Massive jumps from big names to individuals. From wealth to health, oops, to hell, it needs to stand here. Make the euro resistant, lightfast, waterproof, whatever. It is nice so many celebrities want to share their opinions, their worries.

So the pressure is now on Greece, so much so, that the Greek land may
yield under the pressure and sink into the magma down below.

We have reached some point every day. Isn't it peculiar?
Some epoch has ended. Isn't it strange that something old has gone and little new has begun?

Look at the USDCHF charts. There is no fiction in there, no VIP faces, no celebrities. It looks unnerved.
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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD with UBS and UBS without ABS

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Sep 18, 2011 12:44 pm

EURUSD is the first pair on today's agenda. Be prepared for a longer story. It's a sticky sirup yet a lot can be seen through it. You do get some idea and I hope I can convert what I see into words.

Before that...

'Once bitten twice shy' most probably wasn't embossed anywhere at UBS, on marble tiles or mahogany doors or goldplated handles. Most probably nobody got it tattooed there either.

Banks traditionally do their best... don't they? The fact that the $2 bn hole is attributed to a Mr Adobi, has opened a Pandora box full of questions. The whole situation will leave many pondering about what actually a Mr Adobi was doing. I keep on wondering not just what but how he was doing it what he had to do.

Wouldn't you guys like to know his tools and all that crap which allow you to call yourself traders?

I keep on wondering what the judge will understand of it and who is going to
be an expert advisor to the court of law.

That hole has a double bottom in my view. It had taken some pretty long time to accumulate all those losing positions, so my first thought was that he must have been following some same strategy which means that his mismanagement is accompanied by signs of incompetence on a fundamental level of Expert Advice.

I take my hat off to them that they are still afloat in the sea of incompetence and ignorance.

I hope you understand now that I do not see any problem with underregulation. The problem lies somewhere else. It is carefully avoided in the newspapers and the like for one sheer reason. Nobody wants to touch anything he does not understand. Would you expect to get the answer from journalists or politicians? Ha, ha, ha!

Yes, it is really horribly insane. This lends weight to the view that the whole industry is rotten.

Today FT wrote an essey about Michael Craig-Martin and his "An Oak Tree" - a glass of water placed on a plain shelf, accompanied by a text explaining that it was an oak tree because he said so.

Because of art's demand of faith, the suspension of disbelief -not always understood - I propose "A Bank" - a glass of water with a toilet roll inside placed on a plain shelf, accompanied by a text explaining that it is a bank because I say so.

"An Oak Tree" was once refused entry at Australian customs because officials thought it was actual vegetation.

What they would do to my "A Bank" or what you would do to it or to any bank is none of my business.

We have a double dip recession and what comes next is the period of general elections. The tax system should be fair that is why it is a fairy tale.

EURUSD will be tolerated by us as long as it appears to work. What sort of developments are happening today. Some caravans are moving away from below 1.3500 as it looks it is going deeper into it and they wouldn't like to be hit by falling rocks and debris. It is a legal challenge too. It raised the question whether EURUSD really can go lower. And the men in black nod yes. It can. The real moment of truth comes when it touches 1.3483 - a UPO from Feruary 16 of this year. It was so damn close yet 1.3496 is not 1.3483. It distinctly does matter.

Being so close to that UPO, there is much more in the game than a price level of course. You will have to agree and accept the fact that such returns are good balancing acts. It is a good opportunity to do the good.

Let us see what EURUSD has not done (yet).
The triggers which should expand by factor 14.208 and 2.4220 were born earlier.
Interesting that EURUSD closed on 1.3797 on Friday which is exactly 9.1299 of a trigger from August 17. It rested on the line like a black crow, or a bat. A little bit of electricity may shake it off.

We are not yet half way of the story.
Well, chaos shows that we have not had the true low as yet and it does not matter much that after semafor3 EURUSD went as far as to 1.3936 and Friday closed with a bullish note.
EURUSD is full of complexities and I would argue that even now I cannot go into all the details I see there.
Again EURUSD shot up to "only" 1.3936 and not to a UPO from the upside at 1.3974. On the recent way up EURUSD marked two UPOs
at 1.3563
and 1.3749.
From the upside we have a collection of UPO-repellers:
1.4507
1.4490
1.4400
1.3974
together with fresh UPOs at
1.3878 and
1.3839.
We have set the minimal range for next sessions 1.3839-1.3749 which is a meagre 90 pips.
The market is going to return to the nearest UPOs in the nearest future, but once it returns to 1.3563 it will plunge further.
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GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Sep 18, 2011 4:30 pm

GBPUSD. It holds me.
There is no joke about its face. Its jaw dropped to 14.208=1.5730 and inside the trigger up a semafor3 painted 3. On a first retracement the same was touched again and off it goes sideways.

So where do you get this nonsense of three sessions neither here nor there.
There is a fresh UPO @ 1.5763 to which the market will not only return in disgrace but cause the same jaw drop more. If we happen to see it soon this new week it will be a dreadful mistake for those longs built from 1.5730 to hold on.

What is it now? GBPUSD is waiting to climb farther. The vector field orientation is up and Friday ended with a bullish temperature.

It's not hot yet, it will be once GBPUSD breaks through 1.5829, 1.5836 and 1.5850. Then recall a UPO @ 1.5998.

Written language is a problem to your mind and thinking. Images (graphs) are better. Images will be remembered, words are forgotten quickly. Sometimes no comment is better than poorly chosen words. Sometimes no words come to our mind but the mind is capable of thinking and you are able to act. Do please your mind with images not words.

I have kept you long with the thread about New Zealand and Japan, about the terrible earthquakes. President of the Antarctic Research Institute of Peru and some Russian scientists claim that those two tremors are linked with the unusual solar storms and the supermoon. In March 2011 the Moon was at the closest distance to the Earth in 18 years. WikiLeaks cables show: Japan was warned by an IAEA expert of possible nuclear disaster caused by tremors as early as in December 2008.
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:31 pm

GBPJPY.
I got this noisy idea of resorting just to few triggers hoping to settle the problem of this pair with as little effort as possible. Time is running short.
The idea was very good.
Here it is: a 22pip trigger down extended 14.208 times (312pips) to 120.75.
The market tested the nature of such a chaotic border on September 14, 15 and 16.
A semafor 3 was painted there somewhere amid those attempts to break lower. Looks neat, really. I have nothing to say about it more.

There is another trigger down 31pips which at 9.1299 yields 120.85.
There are two UPOs at
123.57
122.14.
First I show where the two triggers stand. Then their extentions.
Friday ended with a note upwards.
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AUDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:56 pm

AUDUSD.
There is a cotarget 1.0416 from two triggers up and a semafor3 to paint 3.
Friday ended with a bullish tone.
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DJIA

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Sep 18, 2011 7:54 pm

DJIA ended Friday with a note up.
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DJIA update

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Sep 24, 2011 1:25 pm

On the attached DJIA chart six UPO levels are marked of which the red ones are the recently planted repellers, while the blue ones belong to the not so far away past.
Red: 11164
10802
Blue 11106
10904
10763
10595.
DJIA returned to the blue coloured UPOs which is natural and shows weakness.
On the way down it planted those new repellers, another sign of weakness.

Repellers need to be understood properly: a repeller means that the market is running away from its level and it the first thing it is doing. It also means that the market is bound to return to it some time in the future but the return is a second matter. Let it not be confused.

We can also see that some days ago 10763 was where buys were rife. Now it is clearly a selling level. DJIA ended Friday with a bearish note.
There is a trigger up (92 pips). Its 3.5699 expansion is shown. And another trigger down as well.

DJIA slumped with energy which comes from several triggers down. Their targets are presented on another chart.

Expansion by 14.208 is a showcase of crash. DJIA plunged more than 14.208 of a few moderate triggers. 14.208 of a 93- pip trigger is at 10027. So far 9,1299 is done and the market reacted on nearing 10499.

That's about chaos.
Pressure grows to find eurozone crisis solution. But markets are open systems, should then we fret about that growing pressure?
Who wants to rescue whom, and with whose money?

I suppose it is still tossing the dice. With margins poor and not replenished
one choses a small fragment of tradable events and technical developments.

What I find missing in this upheaval, all that political crap and lofty talk by people who never touched trading anything anywhere, is the voice of those pregnant with all kind of debt paper. I would like to hear their lullabies for their baby accounts.

Rescue for some has to be effective and politically attractive. If we skipped
"politically attractiveness", we could arrive at something costing less than more most probably.

Before people get real help, politicians need regulate their greed and tastes. Are those tastes yours as well? A radical policy response is coloured with tints and shades glazed here and there with a touch of transparent oxide. Crowds ignore subtleties, preferring strong saturated primary colours single layered.

It took 9 days for somebody to resign at UBS over the loss scandal. Nine becomes the definition of concern.
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:41 pm

EURUSD dropped to a few target levels marked earlier with triggers from September 13. For reference see attached chart.
Those targets were
1.3415
1.3412
1.3398.
It is a bundle of closely positioned borders. That area halted slumps temporarily. A bounce off is not particularly strong.
However the UPO @ 1.3590 is not a strong repeller either and the market will not only return to it but it will break higher.
Friday ended with a bearish note.
On the low side there is a cotarget 1.3233/28 from two giant triggers.
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