My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD longer term target 1.3870

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:26 pm

EURUSD longer term target 1.3870 looms from two triggers of a bulk size, 70 pips and 105 pips respectively.

One is 14.208, the other is 9.1299 and both of these multipliers yield 1.3870.

It also shows that 1.4335 plays a more than a significant role. It was 4.669 of 105 pips, it is a UPO, and it is also a target based on a few other minor triggers.
In the broad picture 1.4335 marks the level below which EURUSD is structurally unstable.

Under the EU's Freedom of Information rules, Bloomber News is suing the ECB to release documents showing how Greece used secretive financial derivatives to paper over burgeoning and undisclosed indebtedness from the central bank - a pattern of obscure financing spanning at least 5 years.
In the past few weeks, as worries of a Greek default have intensified, there are signs that investors, who may once have happily bought German and French paper, are shunning debt from across the euro zone.

In a crash scenario EURUSD is going to strike 1.3337 as well.
For the time being let us stick to 1.3870.

The targets calculated from triggers correspond to UPOs from March 16
@ 1.3901 and 1.3816.

Also note UPOs @ 1.3341 and 1.3321 dated January 18 of this year.

Interesting will be to a study of EURCHF whether there is a potential in its chaotic system to plummet to parity.

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Paul&Paul
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EURCHF has done 9.1299=1.1991

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:41 pm

EURCHF has done 9.1299 of a huge trigger down (122pips) as yet. That level is equal to 1.1991. One might expect SNB to have intervened there. How long will a mild recovery last?

14.208 is at 1.1371.
14.208 is a typical crash development (similar to the Nikkei 225 crash).

According to flows monitored by Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
foreign demand for German and French bonds has fallen rapidly in the past three months.

EURCHF closed in a minor bullish mode supported at 1.2100 and of course 1.1991.
Initially it targets 3.5699 = 1.2188, a little above UPO@1.2182.
then 1.2243 which is 4.669 of the trigger up.
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Last edited by Paul&Paul on Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:35 am, edited 3 times in total.

Paul&Paul
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NZDUSD hit 4.669 = 8136

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:07 am

NZDUSD hit 4.669 = 8136. And marked semafor3 there.
It returned to UPO @ 8129. Higher are two other UPOs @ 8159 and 8184 to where the market is going to return in the future.
While b elow 8136 NZDUSD is stable upwards but unstable downwards.
Friday closed with a trigger down.
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Paul&Paul
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USDJPY closed at 4.669

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 3:54 pm

USDJPY closed at 4.669 of a trigger (13pips).
The first trigger from top expanded 3.5699 only. 4.669 of this one is at 79.90.
Friday closed with a bearish note.

After selling twice from 80.88 it left a UPO-repeller at 80.69 and this is the level the market is bound to return in the future (not necessarily from the place we see right now).

79.90 and around is an important area where USDJPY was being bought. There we have a UPO @ 79.84. Not an amazing range in terms of pips but absolutely accurate in drawing.
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NZDJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 4:25 pm

NZDJPY closed above 64.48/64.82, yet with a bearish note.
There is potential to go to 4.669=65.68 which more than enough to reach a UPO-repeller @ 65.63.
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 4:45 pm

EURJPY did not quite 114,86 which is not graceful.
However with more Japanese gardeners stoking EURJPY has potential to go to 115.13.
It would still be a long distance to a UPO @115.69.

It is disputable what is more radioactive today, the euro or the yen.
Friday closed with a note higher.
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:04 pm

Magnificent Japanese precision as GBPJPY did just 129.33 which is 3.5699 of the trigger down. Pip to pip.
That place set semafor3 which is bound to move once the pair dips to 4.669=
128.70.
Right now with Friday close GBPJPY is obviously bearish.
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EURCAD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:23 pm

EURCAD has potential to revisit a UPO @ 1.3987 which is exactly 3.5699 of the small trigger down. However, the trend is still up, so a bit higher stands 5.8664=1.4069 which is yet another target of this uptrend.
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Paul&Paul
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Default settings, what are they good for? Nothing -

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 19, 2011 7:39 pm

absolutely nothing.
People study M30 charts, H4 charts, dailies, weeklies - charts with different perspectives, yet they cling to just one set of settings, mainly default settings.
In a way they view everything with just one lense. Its focal length corresponds to the size of the sample used for calculations.
Default settings are small numbers as a rule. It is practical, very practical. Is it
correct? This correctness may be challenged by claiming that small samples cannot reflect what we really need to trade for profit. Small samples contain enevitable noise and random-like changes. To overcome this problem smoothing and filtering is applied which in turn leads to a loss of valuable data changes, which are not noise but pure information.

The problem is that big numbers in settings smooth out the graph which now looks very monotonous, almost good for nothing. Almost? It is true that then we get an unreadable sort of thing. It does not mean that unreadable equals useless. On the contrary, on applying more work to it, one can be rewarded with new windows opened to our eyes and new properties of the system are visible affecting the style of trading.

One cannot expect an indicator set to 14 to be able to detect a trend. In addition, for indicators which have a few featured numbers, like MACD, there should be some scientific principles applied, not randomly chosen numbers which may temporarily work yet they completely fail in the long run.

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EURCAD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 25, 2011 4:17 pm

EURCAD had a few pips to 1.4069. Despite the fall to 1.3842 it is still in an uptrend.
Interesting that EURCAD with a UPO @ 1.4010 wasn't able to touch it.
Not the best of chaos last week on this pair.
Without any mathematical dissertation it is worthwhile to observe that semafor 3
is often marked in places where chaos sets an important UPO or a target.

Friday ended with a bullish tone.
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Last edited by Paul&Paul on Sun Jun 26, 2011 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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