TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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Tony Montana
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Postby Tony Montana » Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:31 am

Very good trades m8
While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed
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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:40 pm

EU Short
+22 & +32

Entry:

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Add'l Entry & Exit:

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**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Re: Instant Self-Discipline, Week 6

Postby TygerKrane » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:34 am

:!: :!: :!:

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Week 6
12/5/11 - 12/9/11
36 entries
2.51%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

Too drunk from the office Holiday party to try and say much, but I had to get this post out at the very least, lol.
Positive result for the week, but not the stable kind of performance that I can make a career out of...the week as a whole was good, but between Thurs night and the rest of Fri, I got myself down to -5% ON THE DAY. It got to the point where I overleveraged and turned off the trading station :evil: . Turned it back on some hours later and was able to end my Fri at +1.xx%. Hope to discuss more the trades later. Gonna miss those guys when I leave the job 8) :P

Other than that, it's funny to think that all I need is 11.8% gain from this point to get me back to my starting balance...so close, yet "So Far Away":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UM249-WfP4

Carole King FTW!!
I think I'll pass out the rest of the night to this... :smt030



[highlight=black][size=117][font=Comic Sans MS]Instant Self-Discipline,[/font][/size][font=Tahoma] trackback[/font][/highlight] wrote:
Week 0 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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:shock: :shock: :shock:

I think that I know what I'm doing, but one of my current weaknesses is that when I'm on my own trading, sometimes I get these megalomaniac visions of grandeur. Definite account killer.
So I figure I might put myself out there for public scrutiny to make myself a bit more accountable for my actions. I remember when prochargedmopar was posting his account (I think sometime last year, or late 2009), I thought that was heroic. :oops: :smt055 :smt066

The first two weeks at the very least will start off very slow, as I will feel a bit more cautious/apprehensive at the start of this Instant Self-Discipline experiment, but there is no doubt that this will be a GOOD kind of caution.

¤I'll do this at the end of each week. I have no idea how this will turn out (I couldn't fully tell you which side of the 95% I am on just yet.)
¤I'll try to limit my losses to -5% a week.
¤I'll go back into the shadows to regroup and reorganize if my balance gets -40% from this starting point.

As LittleKnown pointed out earlier, {paraphrase}"Won't this put unnecessary added pressure on myself?"
I can only say, back in his prime, Mike Tyson was knocking the heads off of 95% of the people out there; so I wouldn't be too embarrassed if I went in the ring with him and people saw me get my head knocked off too.
95% of traders fail, therefore...

Basically, for my [font=Comic Sans MS]current [/font] level of trading ability, I need to remember to keep a Marathon Mentality, and not the mentality for a Mad-Dash-for-Cash.

I will probably start off each week, and every few days by watching, We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets. 8)




Week 1 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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Week 1
10/30/11 - 11/4/11
43 entries
-4.22%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

First off, I'll start off by saying that it was actually a surprise to me, and that in a little way, I'm kind of glad with the outcome of this week. I maintained a small level of losses each day, but on Friday, I got caught up in some NFP nastiness, and so I was pretty certain that my losses where somewhere in the -6% area. So I was elated to see that I hadn't even crossed 4.5%. Probably just goes to show, having the discipline to keep losses small, and a Marathon Mentality might can help to make things pay off in the end.

I did start this off VERY slow however, I'm not trying to show off and be macho, and that was a good thing. All my entries were at 1:1 , 2:1 leverage and I couldn't get a damn thing to stick, it was disgusting really, it could've been a morale killer. It got so much so, to the point that I actually meditated twice this week to try and get back in touch with Whatever-The-Hell-It-Was that made me so confident in the first place :o .

This week coming up will be a short one for me, I'm going to Cali for my birthday :smt113 , so I'll probably only have two good days to look at the market. {If I trade while on vacation in Cali, then I'm obviously doing something WRONG :!: } I assume that the week after might be kind of slow as I get readjusted when I come back as well. This is beginning to make my experiment sound very boring isn't it? Slow week this, low leverage that, excuses excuses...

Other than that, been thinking of some ways to fine tune my entry algorithm.

Charts to follow in next post.




Week 2 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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Week 2
11/6/11 - 11/11/11
41 entries
-4.02%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

From what I remember from this past week, I was just being lazy and trying to catch an easy swing move I could hold onto, so I could at least be in a trade while I got ready for my trip. I was definitely overtrading, considering my lack of focus for the week.
Was back in the situation where I had a lot of little profits I could've taken if I wasn't so focused on something bigger.
One morning was looking at M1 charts, I for some reason felt really comfortable with the PA there, felt that if I had profits, I would love to test scalping off of that at a decent leverage, b/c it felt much better for me to just put my stop at the last swing high/low and to respect whatever happened afterwards in my attempt to grab a quick 1-5 pips.
Had another idea to bring me back to trading based on correlated pairs. The reason is to help me try to get into continuation trades more b/c I'm naturally always trying to catch the reversal of a trend.

Other than that, I tried to take more pictures of my trades, but it was actually really disrupting and making things stressful.




Week 3 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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Week 3
11/13/11 - 11/18/11
21 entries
-1.37%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

My mind has been revolving around yet another way to use correlations between pairs, I've tried a couple times in the past, this time, I see something totally different from those other times for me to make observations on and react to. Additionally, it doesn't really deviate from the way I try to trade now, so I will integrate what I see with them a bit going forward I think. It is definitely for the purpose of picking pairs with great potential for swing/multi-day moves.
That being said, I need to ground myself first by taking smaller targets, again this week I came across some 10-15pip gains that I never took.
I think because I knew that I would be trading less for the week that just past, I went a little higher in leverage more often, than I did for the previous two weeks.
Friday was a nice AU trade that helped me out a bit, I'll post that trade up next. But generally speaking this week I was totally clueless with everything, I wanted to turn of my trading station everytime I turned it on, bc things just made no sense to me...even charts that made me naturally go :D , the happiness stopped there bc I just couldn't figure out how to merge into the market. So I guess on Friday, charts where as equally nice looking as they were all week, but I felt a bit more in sync with things as the week came to an end. Therefore I would say, unfortunately, b/c of the holiday this week, I don't think I'll really get a chance to ride that "momentum" (if it is actually even there in the first place :oops: ), I don't have expectations for doing much this week. Who knows, maybe correlations will prove there point and hook me up regardless :oops:

Also, if I can move fast enough tonight, I might put up a few other observations that have made impressions on me... looks like I'll be going contrary to withnail's AU supply & demand observations. I hope time permits and I can put up most of what I am thinking about.

Also, I'm VERY HAPPY with my new FXTS2 setup (took me forever to get the windows rearranged to the right position), and the the latest updates that FXCM put into the program this weekend.........

They're Great!!

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Week4 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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Week 4
11/20/11 - 11/25/11
25 entries
-5.47%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

With the week being Thanksgivings, I decided to let myself be a turkey :D . For the last time though. In my next post(s) <if there is time> I want to quickly markup the trade that started my downward spiral, and the Friday trade that would've made up for it had I been thinking clearly.

I'm pretty certain that I get a good number of trades that yield 10-15pips before I get stopped out (or maybe I just have selective memory on this topic.) Either way, probably time that I take the quick pips :p . I'm pretty sure there are enough of them to snowball into a more positive outcome for my weekly balance (and my trading psyche.)
[highlight=lightgreen]I Swear to you, it's like I'm constantly Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory with this.[/highlight] :lol:

I'm very anxious for this week and the next few to try out a filter for choosing my pairs and directions. I've spent much, much, MUCH time thinking about it; maybe in the end it is just a placebo effect that keeps me uni-directional for a longer time period. Now that the week has started, just dealing with the fact that even though you can visually backtest thousands of bars in minutes, in real time, you can only just wait hours and hours...and I also have to deal with the fact that even if I DO have something that helps me better pick pair & direction, I'm STILL going to have to take quick pips regardless and leave lots of pips on the table in these beginning stages.




Week 5 wrote::!: :!: :!:

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Week 5
11/28/11 - 12/2/11
12 entries
1.39%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

Purposely didn't get too involved this week, I actually REALLY wanted to post about what happened Thanksgivings week, so that's why I refrained from getting into a whole lot more trading on top of that. I'll try to take a review of things, if I can't post, I'll just mentally review and move on.


**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:31 am

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Postby Sandra » Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:07 pm

nice charting Krane......are you using the space stuff yet? im still trying to grasp that one....

sandra

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Postby MightyOne » Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:04 pm

Position is the point of greatest risk (5%?) and rests at the other end of your space; you are considered long/short from total risk.

This definition of position is mostly a psychological trick to keep you focused on the trade instead of every little up and down tick.

Space is total risk + any profit. Space converts to lots and lots convert to space; adding to a position cuts down your space while subtracting from your position increases your space.

If 5 lots and 100 pips of space = 5% risk then 1 lot and 500 pips of space = 5% risk:
5/1 = 5, 5 * 100 = 500 &
1/5 * 500 = 100 pips.
If you have 1 lot and you add 4 lots (1/5) then your space (500) is reduced to 20%.

So long as you have lots you have space and that is why it is important to go after as many lots as a safe position will allow.
Most people will enter with 3 lots and only after a large move they buy another 2 lots. Often times it is far better to buy 2 lots (3/5) and place a stop loss for 2 lots.

On small timeframes you enter with lots sized to fibo: 3/5, 5/8, 8/13 &
exit lots in fibo order: 13/8, 8/5, 5/3.
When doing this, you know that you are cutting your space to ~60% and increasing space by ~66% so it is really easy to make a snap decision using only your eyes.

On large time frames you can make more risky plays because the space that you are working with is just so large; it takes price less time to reach 40 pips than say 200. So on the larger charts I may do something like 3/7 (reduce to 42%) and use a 7/4 stop (increase space by 75%). If the stop were on breakeven (something I don't believe in) then the total reduction of space would be 26% (100 down to 42 and back up to 73 and change)

There are only 2 trades in the technical word, retracement and breakout, and you don't need to study them (momo/bdp is a retracement trade, Rat is breakout, ZL is retracement, waiting for price to return to the open to reverse is a breakout trade).

The only thing worth study is money management and psychology.

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Postby dojirock » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:03 am

Thanks MO for the explanation. I think i am on to it...need to ponder a few more...might have some questions. thanks for the time

dojirock
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby dojirock » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:08 am

Actually, I have a question now :?:
I tried to figure out how your placing the stop. If my risk per trade is 5 percent then it is that pip equivelent from where ever the entry is? I hope you know what i mean....
If my risk is 5 percent or 40 pips...and i enter at lets say 1.5000 then my max space is 1.5040 ? The initial space is always 5% or 40 pips from my entry no matter where it is?

Is this close for the initial space?

dojirock
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO

"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."

"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby Belkin » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:40 am

MightyOne wrote:Position is the point of greatest risk (5%?) and rests at the other end of your space; you are considered long/short from total risk.

This definition of position is mostly a psychological trick to keep you focused on the trade instead of every little up and down tick.

Space is total risk + any profit. Space converts to lots and lots convert to space; adding to a position cuts down your space while subtracting from your position increases your space.

If 5 lots and 100 pips of space = 5% risk then 1 lot and 500 pips of space = 5% risk:
5/1 = 5, 5 * 100 = 500 &
1/5 * 500 = 100 pips.
If you have 1 lot and you add 4 lots (1/5) then your space (500) is reduced to 20%.

So long as you have lots you have space and that is why it is important to go after as many lots as a safe position will allow.
Most people will enter with 3 lots and only after a large move they buy another 2 lots. Often times it is far better to buy 2 lots (3/5) and place a stop loss for 2 lots.

On small timeframes you enter with lots sized to fibo: 3/5, 5/8, 8/13 &
exit lots in fibo order: 13/8, 8/5, 5/3.
When doing this, you know that you are cutting your space to ~60% and increasing space by ~66% so it is really easy to make a snap decision using only your eyes.

On large time frames you can make more risky plays because the space that you are working with is just so large; it takes price less time to reach 40 pips than say 200. So on the larger charts I may do something like 3/7 (reduce to 42%) and use a 7/4 stop (increase space by 75%). If the stop were on breakeven (something I don't believe in) then the total reduction of space would be 26% (100 down to 42 and back up to 73 and change)

There are only 2 trades in the technical word, retracement and breakout, and you don't need to study them (momo/bdp is a retracement trade, Rat is breakout, ZL is retracement, waiting for price to return to the open to reverse is a breakout trade).

The only thing worth study is money management and psychology.


BELKIN LIKES THIS!!!

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:11 am

If you enter at 1.5000 with 40 pips of space then your position is either 1.4960 or 1.5040.

If you go short with 5 lots at 1.5000 and place a stop loss for one lot at 1.5010 then you will have 4 lots and 37.5 pips (from 1.5010) if your stop is hit.
Starting size: 5
Ending size: 4
Space: 30
5/4: 1.25 * 30 = 37.5

To answer your question...

Your space is calculated from your last point of action.

Initial/now previous action was 1.5000 so your space was 40 pips from 1.5000.
When you reduced to 4 lots at 1.5010 then your space was 37.5 pips from 1.5010.

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