TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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TygerKrane
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Currency Correlations

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:58 am

I found an even nicer site for currency correlations / currency relative strength measures, etc.

They have buttons for a few different options at the top of the page, below is my favorite page that I'll use if I get back into the correlations...
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation


TygerKrane wrote:
bettlebox wrote:Hi Tyger

What i do is grade my trades. Doing this helps you pick best setups.

i have:-
A++ <-- perfect setup everthing ticks boxes
B Over half boxes ticked
C Dodgy position

So like opposite postion on E/U and G/U i would look how good the setup was
on both and pick the one that has the best score. This makes nice easy and stops yourself getting in a knot about which trade to take.

Also i make a yearly correlation table this is from end sept 2011 to end sept 2010.


if its 80%+- its green or red
if its between 60%-79% +- its Aqua or Orange
everthing else it white



BB


Bettlebox, you're right, I should just pick the pair I am most comfortable with and do my best.


So you track yearly correlations?

OANDA has a page where they do correlations for many different timeframes as well:

Image


In comparison to your chart, however, they don't have AUDJPY or CHFJPY.




bredin wrote:
TygerKrane wrote:I uploaded these with my 4shared.com account, I hope this doesn't cause a problem in the future; there was no way I was typing tinypic.com's security code 12times!

::EDIT::
Dammit, they're not letting me link the direct images onto here. Sorry!! At some point in the near future, I guess I will go through and do the tinypic.com thing, so I can have the images here like I want them to be.


Tygs, at II i use the tinypic API..

go to any thread on II and hit the 'post reply' button (not quick reply)
in the attachment part is the upload to tinypic...
the API does not have use the captcha ;)

G.


Wow bredz, surely, you have thought of everything; That is truly a very slick site over there at Insanity Industries.

~Krane

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:18 am

AU Long
stopped out

Entry:

Image


Exit:

Image


Afterwards:

Image

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby withnail » Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:07 pm

Hi Krane,
I was taking a look at the AUDUSD myself. Thought it would be good to share my notes here. Firstly I noticed the gap. The gap was after a strong move up. Then I looked left and saw 3 supply levels. So this appeared to be as Sam Seiden says a novice/exhaustion gap. As my account is not so big (yet :) ) to have to big a stop, I zoom into a lower time frame to find a supply zone to short off. Here are my charts from my notes.

Image

Image

Keep up the good work in your log I'm enjoying reading.
Cheers,
Withnail

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Re: AU Fairytale

Postby TygerKrane » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:35 pm

:-k TygerKrane :-k wrote:Maybe...

:-k :-k :-k

The 50% area of that last AU W1 MOMO candle puts us 50 pips away from parity.

Image__________Image


For all this move in AU, gold hasn't done much of anything.
Price gets to parity, time to buy some more metals :shock:

If anyone is trading Failed Extremes like dragon33 does...


[highlight=WHITE]PARITY!!![/highlight] :shock:

:-k :-k :-k


Image__________Image


Too bad, I am honestly having one hell of a clueless week, where this (and all my charts) look greek to me :(

Maybe looking for the long term Long, should price hit the yellow line :?:

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:56 pm

Despite being clueless, I see this last Short H3 MOMO on my chart and want to continue short off of that:

AU:

Image

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Postby TygerKrane » Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:32 pm

withnail wrote:Hi Krane,
I was taking a look at the AUDUSD myself. Thought it would be good to share my notes here. Firstly I noticed the gap. The gap was after a strong move up. Then I looked left and saw 3 supply levels. So this appeared to be as Sam Seiden says a novice/exhaustion gap. As my account is not so big (yet :) ) to have to big a stop, I zoom into a lower time frame to find a supply zone to short off. Here are my charts from my notes.

Image

Image

Keep up the good work in your log I'm enjoying reading.
Cheers,
Withnail


Hey Withnail, thanks for the post/comment/critique!
Glad you like this half-brained collection of ideas that I call a thread :!: :oops:

I too, saw that beautiful novice gap that occurred; here is what was influencing my decisions: R becoming S

Image


Afterwards, I switched to a short trade, not as early as your marked supply zone though (which is marked on my chart in blue box)...

AU Short entry: (26pip SL)

Image

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Re: Instant Self-Discipline, Week 3

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:34 am

:!: :!: :!:

Image

Week 3
11/13/11 - 11/18 /11
21 entries
-1.37%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

My mind has been revolving around yet another way to use correlations between pairs, I've tried a couple times in the past, this time, I see something totally different from those other times for me to make observations on and react to. Additionally, it doesn't really deviate from the way I try to trade now, so I will integrate what I see with them a bit going forward I think. It is definitely for the purpose of picking pairs with great potential for swing/multi-day moves.
That being said, I need to ground myself first by taking smaller targets, again this week I came across some 10-15pip gains that I never took.
I think because I knew that I would be trading less for the week that just past, I went a little higher in leverage more often, than I did for the previous two weeks.
Friday was a nice AU trade that helped me out a bit, I'll post that trade up next. But generally speaking this week I was totally clueless with everything, I wanted to turn of my trading station everytime I turned it on, bc things just made no sense to me...even charts that made me naturally go :D , the happiness stopped there bc I just couldn't figure out how to merge into the market. So I guess on Friday, charts where as equally nice looking as they were all week, but I felt a bit more in sync with things as the week came to an end. Therefore I would say, unfortunately, b/c of the holiday this week, I don't think I'll really get a chance to ride that "momentum" (if it is actually even there in the first place :oops: ), I don't have expectations for doing much this week. Who knows, maybe correlations will prove there point and hook me up regardless :oops:

Also, if I can move fast enough tonight, I might put up a few other observations that have made impressions on me... looks like I'll be going contrary to withnail's AU supply & demand observations. I hope time permits and I can put up most of what I am thinking about.

Also, I'm VERY HAPPY with my new FXTS2 setup (took me forever to get the windows rearranged to the right position), and the the latest updates that FXCM put into the program this weekend.........

They're Great!!

Image



[highlight=black][size=117][font=Comic Sans MS]Instant Self-Discipline,[/font][/size][font=Tahoma] trackback[/font][/highlight] wrote:
Week 0 wrote::!: :!: :!:

Image

:shock: :shock: :shock:

I think that I know what I'm doing, but one of my current weaknesses is that when I'm on my own trading, sometimes I get these megalomaniac visions of grandeur. Definite account killer.
So I figure I might put myself out there for public scrutiny to make myself a bit more accountable for my actions. I remember when prochargedmopar was posting his account (I think sometime last year, or late 2009), I thought that was heroic. :oops: :smt055 :smt066

The first two weeks at the very least will start off very slow, as I will feel a bit more cautious/apprehensive at the start of this Instant Self-Discipline experiment, but there is no doubt that this will be a GOOD kind of caution.

¤I'll do this at the end of each week. I have no idea how this will turn out (I couldn't fully tell you which side of the 95% I am on just yet.)
¤I'll try to limit my losses to -5% a week.
¤I'll go back into the shadows to regroup and reorganize if my balance gets -40% from this starting point.

As LittleKnown pointed out earlier, {paraphrase}"Won't this put unnecessary added pressure on myself?"
I can only say, back in his prime, Mike Tyson was knocking the heads off of 95% of the people out there; so I wouldn't be too embarrassed if I went in the ring with him and people saw me get my head knocked off too.
95% of traders fail, therefore...

Basically, for my [font=Comic Sans MS]current [/font] level of trading ability, I need to remember to keep a Marathon Mentality, and not the mentality for a Mad-Dash-for-Cash.

I will probably start off each week, and every few days by watching, We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets. 8)



Week 1 wrote::!: :!: :!:

Image

Week 1
10/30/11 - 11/4/11
43 entries
-4.22%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

First off, I'll start off by saying that it was actually a surprise to me, and that in a little way, I'm kind of glad with the outcome of this week. I maintained a small level of losses each day, but on Friday, I got caught up in some NFP nastiness, and so I was pretty certain that my losses where somewhere in the -6% area. So I was elated to see that I hadn't even crossed 4.5%. Probably just goes to show, having the discipline to keep losses small, and a Marathon Mentality might can help to make things pay off in the end.

I did start this off VERY slow however, I'm not trying to show off and be macho, and that was a good thing. All my entries were at 1:1 , 2:1 leverage and I couldn't get a damn thing to stick, it was disgusting really, it could've been a morale killer. It got so much so, to the point that I actually meditated twice this week to try and get back in touch with Whatever-The-Hell-It-Was that made me so confident in the first place :o .

This week coming up will be a short one for me, I'm going to Cali for my birthday :smt113 , so I'll probably only have two good days to look at the market. {If I trade while on vacation in Cali, then I'm obviously doing something WRONG :!: } I assume that the week after might be kind of slow as I get readjusted when I come back as well. This is beginning to make my experiment sound very boring isn't it? Slow week this, low leverage that, excuses excuses...

Other than that, been thinking of some ways to fine tune my entry algorithm.

Charts to follow in next post.



Week 2 wrote::!: :!: :!:

Image

Week 2
11/6/11 - 11/11/11
41 entries
-4.02%

:shock: :shock: :shock:

From what I remember from this past week, I was just being lazy and trying to catch an easy swing move I could hold onto, so I could at least be in a trade while I got ready for my trip. I was definitely overtrading, considering my lack of focus for the week.
Was back in the situation where I had a lot of little profits I could've taken if I wasn't so focused on something bigger.
One morning was looking at M1 charts, I for some reason felt really comfortable with the PA there, felt that if I had profits, I would love to test scalping off of that at a decent leverage, b/c it felt much better for me to just put my stop at the last swing high/low and to respect whatever happened afterwards in my attempt to grab a quick 1-5 pips.
Had another idea to bring me back to trading based on correlated pairs. The reason is to help me try to get into continuation trades more b/c I'm naturally always trying to catch the reversal of a trend.

Other than that, I tried to take more pictures of my trades, but it was actually really disrupting and making things stressful.



**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Week 3, AU trades

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:32 am

AU Short, premature entry by H1 standards, still could've gotten 14-18pips off of it.

Entry:

Image


Stopped Out:

Image


Pretty much Immediate Re-entry:

Image


Take Profit: @1.0016

Image



I went in more aggressive on this second entry, I was so proud of the fact that I didn't shy away from the trade since it was close to Friday noon that I opened it...

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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TygerKrane
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Correlating Bad Habits

Postby TygerKrane » Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:59 am

So this is probably revisiting a bad habit from my past but here goes anyway:


Image


This snapshot was taken at the end of the day friday, so this week I would be looking to focus on AU/AJ/EA.
And who knows, maybe I would recheck in the middle of the week, after the close of NY on Wednesday...
And who knows, maybe I should recheck at midnight right now EST, to see how the price actions are lining up after 6hours in the new week.

AU/AJ rates higher than EA/AJ, thus, AU/AJ is circled thrice.
I chose these pairs by taking the highest correlated pairs on the Daily, then out of those, checking which Hourly correlations were the highest. For some reason, I am thinking this is truly genius. :roll:

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:39 pm

EA Short, blind entry
SL 34pips @ 1.3780

Entry:

Image


D1:


**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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