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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Thu Dec 23, 2010 5:03 pm

Can someone please be so kind to clue me in on what the hell happened to make the EU shoot up like that 1715GMT (1115am EST)??

I didn't see anything newsworthy...

But that is one-hell-of-a-zline occurring, that's for certain.


Image

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 23, 2010 7:34 pm

TygerKrane wrote:Can someone please be so kind to clue me in on what the hell happened to make the EU shoot up like that 1715GMT (1115am EST)??

I didn't see anything newsworthy...

But that is one-hell-of-a-zline occurring, that's for certain.


Image


Hit an Important daily extreme from 12/02/2010 must have been a big
order stack in that area.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Postby TygerKrane » Sat Dec 25, 2010 6:30 am

Happy Hannukah / Merry Christmas / Kwanzaa / Festivus

for 2010, fellow Pirates!!


**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:16 am

aliassmith wrote:
TygerKrane wrote:Can someone please be so kind to clue me in on what the hell happened to make the EU shoot up like that 1715GMT (1115am EST)??

I didn't see anything newsworthy...

But that is one-hell-of-a-zline occurring, that's for certain.


Image


Hit an Important daily extreme from 12/02/2010 must have been a big
order stack in that area.


Hmmmmmm :-k

Thanks alias.


H4

Image


H1

Image

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Mark Douglas notes, Part 1

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:38 pm

Links to online Mark Douglas resources:
http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=50688#50688

So after I found all those online resources, of course the next step was to give them a casual listen. Just like EVERYONE ELSE (100% of the people) who have listened to Mark Douglas, I found that I liked what he had to say about why people aren't successful at trading. But in the middle of my listening, there was one statement / train of thought that stopped me dead in my tracks and made me say--

[font=Comic Sans MS][highlight=black]"Wait :shock: , I REALLY need to be taking notes from this guy!"[/highlight][/font] :shock: :shock: : [hr][hr][highlight=darkred][font=lucida console]When people don't understand that their losses are a result of their attitude, then naturally they think that their losses are a result of what they don't know about the market. So they think if they learn more about the market (by learning more about systems, indicators, variables, etc.) they can avoid losses and avoid being wrong.[/font][/highlight]

[font=Tahoma][highlight=darkviolet]"So if you learn more about the market, you can avoid losses and avoid being wrong"
This is what he calls [/highlight]
[/font][font=Tahoma][highlight=black]The Black Hole of Analysis. [/highlight]
[highlight=darkviolet]It doesn't work and it never will.[/highlight]
[/font][hr][hr]So now I'll be posting up my notes from the various interviews and lectures, b/c that way it's easier for me to access the best bits, with the hope of more quickly getting the best stuff ingrained into my trading mentality.
Last edited by TygerKrane on Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby tmanbone » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:45 pm

Thanks for sharing.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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Mark Douglas notes, Part 2

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:21 pm

Mind Over Markets (Wizetrade TV interview) (53mins)
http://www.4shared.com/file/96740657/22 ... arket.html
or
http://www.4shared.com/video/5XedSG0j/M ... Marke.html[hr][hr]
Profit Gap: the Gap between your potential profit (when papertrading) vs. your actual profit (live trading.)

Winning vs. Consistent Winning

Requires Learning Mental Skills

Even if your technical method gives you a high percentage of winning trades, it doesn't mean it will equate into a consistent income. The proper execution of those skills though require mental skills.

Staying positively focused on the process itself & not focused on the individual outcomes of if the trace could go wrong.
Staying positively focused on the process of trading by--Doing exactly what we need to do, When we need to do it, Without Hesitation, Reservation or Fear.

You can't get consistent results, if you are making mental errors {the result of thinking, believing, or assuming that our technical method is telling us whats going to happen next on a trade-by-trade basis.} Technical methods aren't designed to do that.
Technical methods and patters are designed to put the odds of success in our favor over a series of trades.

By accepting the randomness of the outcomes, you can produce consistent results
**Events that have a random outcome can produce a consistent result. {i.e. Casinos}**
A technical method gives us the same type of tool that keeps casinos running.

The frustration of trading our apparently good technical method comes from expecting something from our technical method that it just can't do.

A pattern is consistent, so I should have an outcome that is consistent with the pattern.
The patterns don't always correspond on a trade-by-trade basis.
The outcomes don't always correspond with the pattern on a trade-by-trade basis.
So even if you come up on the exact same looking signal & chart, there is no guarantee that the current trade will turn out like the last one.

There is a random distribution between wins & losses over any sequence of trades you might look at.

Must learn to think in probabilities.

How does the trader begin to accept the random distribution of outcomes over the same exact signal pattern?

:::
:::
:::
[highlight=lightgreen]--I BUY at a point b/c I believe there will be more buyers than sellers at that point to continue to push price up and clear through the sellers.[/highlight]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[highlight=pink]I SELL at a point b/c I believe there will be more seller than buyers at that point to continue to pressure price down to clear through the layers of buyers.--[/highlight]

We can identify a pattern, but at our account size as individual traders, ultimately, we are dependent on other traders to come in after us and move the price in our favor.

When a pattern presents itself, you NEVER have any idea who (or, IF) anyone is going to come in after us to make our position a winner...so there is no point in analyzing, judging, or trying to figure out if this particular trade is going to work or not.
:::
:::
:::

{20:40} A Weighted Coin that comes up heads 70% of the time statistically:
--But STILL there is no way to know which flips will come up as heads ahead of time.
--There is no way to know the actual sequence, but at the end of the day, you know that it will come up 70% of the time.



Trading errors come from believing that since the pattern is present, that you can predict which particular trade will be the winner when the pattern shows up.

You don't even need a win percentage that's greater than 50% to be successful. <this is attainable from a combination of your edge + money management.>

{25:00} Professional Trader Mindset-
How does believing in a random result affect your expectations?
You don't want to enter a trade with the possibility of feeling/being disappointed, dissatisfied, or even betrayed by our trade.
-When that potential exists, it has the effect of affecting the way that we see market information in detrimental ways. It affects our perception of market information in a way that doesn't allow us to cut our losses.

So how do we make ourselves not susceptible to this? By changing our perspective and understanding?
#~ Playing a Slot Machine: When you put a quarter into the slot machine, pull the lever, and don't win; How Do You Feel?
Do you feel Betrayed by your attempt? NO
Why do you not feel betrayed by the machine? B/c it is a random outcome.
Therefore, you went into it with the belief that you know that you are participating in an event with a random outcome and as a result, your expectations about the outcome were in perfect alignment with the event itself.

{27:00-30:00} In order for your trade to be successful, after you enter, other traders have to be willing and Buy at a price that is worse (higher than) your buy; or other traders have to be willing to Sell at a price that is worse (lower than) your sell.

{32:38} So what trading systems can do is put the odds in your favor in a way where (virtually) we own the machine.

Trading a technical methodology or a technical pattern does not have anything to do with being right or wrong, it's just an odds game.
You get an edge that says the odds are in your favor over a series of trades, but you've gotta be able to take every single trade b/c you don't know the sequence o wins and losses that will play out.

When you change your perspective; you know that there is a random outcome to these patterns, so you know it is not right or wrong; so you reduce your potential to be disappointed (just like when you put your quarter into the slot machine.) You gotta be able to change the way you think.

Getting to this carefree state of mind.
You have to eliminate the potential to think the market is going to disappoint you. (i.e. enter trades with the same mindset as when you pull a slot machine lever.)
You can eliminate this potential by understanding that trading is not about being right or wrong, its a probability game (f you're trading technically.)

When the patterns present themselves, trade them, don't think about it, there is nothing to think about.

**When the pattern turns up, there is absolutely nothing to think about b/c there is no way that you can know what the outcome is going to be (there is no way to tell if people are going to decide to come in after you following the pattern.)**

**An "Edge" is a higher probability of one thing happening over another. (over a SERIES of trades.)**

**Profit Gap - the gap between the potential & the bottom line results
Most people think that when they realize that the gap exists, that somehow learning more about the markets is what is going to fill it. that is absolutely not the case, you have to learn more about yourself and how you interact with the market, to be able to fill this profit gap. There are psychological skills involved.
Last edited by TygerKrane on Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Mark Douglas notes, Part 3

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Jan 09, 2011 3:36 pm

Woodies CCI Club Interview, August 2005 (65mins)
http://woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/mark ... t-2005.htm[hr][hr]
The market has a memory, b/c it is the expression of all the people who participate in it.

Do NOT create an expectation of what the market will do at your signal. [highlight=grey][<Just recognize when your signal appears.> (my personal note on his statement for clarity.][/highlight]

A sense of not caring and that it is a game b/c there is no way that you can be certain that your edge is going to work at any particular moment.

If you're not trading at a level where you can move the market yourself, then the outcome of every trade you place; the successful outcome of any trade that you might place is actually based on the actions that other people take, after you place your trade.
Every trade that you place, requires the action of some other person, in order to be successful.
Therefore, you need to learn to think about trading in such a way that it becomes this carefree, game like quality, that isn't much different than pulling the handle on a slot machine. When you can think this way, then you won't hesitate.

Change the focus of your trading: Trade for the purpose of developing your trading skills.--Don't trade for the purpose of making money.

{27:30} The process of trading, in essence, requires that you predict other people's behavior. You are trying to get in the mind of every other trader and figure out if [font=Times New Roman]they're[/font] going to do something after [font=Times New Roman]you[/font] do something.

{44:52} [highlight=indigo]Discipline = staying focused on the object of your objective; and Constantly Refocusing on the object of your goal or objective, when something inside of you is conflicting with that.[/highlight]
Therefore, [font=Verdana][highlight=violet]#~The technique of redirecting your efforts [/highlight][highlight=violet]on to[/highlight][highlight=violet] the object of your goal.
[/highlight]
[/font]
AND
[font=Verdana][highlight=violet]When you find you are distracted, you keep redirecting as as many times as it takes, for as long as it takes, until you achieve your goal.[/highlight][/font]

At some point, once you achieve, once you get to the point where you can perform in a way that is satisfactory to you, then you will find that it takes no effort at all, it is just a function of who you are.

To arrive at a threshold where the struggle completely ceases to exist. It becomes who you are, and you are automatically compelled to behave in the manner towards your objective.

{54:00} Understanding the Nature of Beliefs
There isn't a more important component of our identity, of our sense of self that is responsible for the actual quality in which we live our lives; there isn't a more important component of our identity, that the quality of our lives will be determined by, than by what beliefs we are operating out of.[b] Both in relationship to the circumstances we find ourselves in; and, in relation to what we are trying to accomplish, compared to the circumstances we find ourselves in.

{58:30} Once we acquire a belief, it acts on the way we see the world. I.e., if you believe that trading has to do with being right or wrong, then trading [b]to you
becomes a right or wrong endeavor.
--When you put a quarter in a slot machine, it is a random outcome, no doubt about it. If you pull the handle, and it doesn't come up a winner, you don't believe that you are wrong b/c you believed in a random outcome; so you weren't distressed, nor did it make you feel afraid.
[highlight=yellow]--->It is b/c of the fact that you DON'T Believe in a random outcome with the Forex Market (opposite of your Slot Machine thinking), that causes you to be in a state of mind where you can be afraid.[/highlight]
It is b/c you hold a belief that you are either right or wrong; this comes from the fact that we are trying to use our intellect to determine the outcome.
There is NO WAY that we know what the outcome will be in a slot machine, save for the fact that there will be a payout at some point.

[highlight=darkgreen]**The problem is that since we use our intellect to determine the edge, we then incorrectly believe / or relate this to the fact that our intellect should also be the deciding force of the outcome as well.**[/highlight]
And b/c we used our intellect, we associate the outcome with being right or wrong.

This acts as a force on our eyes, in the way we see the market, and also creates a state of mind that allows for fear, terror, discomfort, dissatisfaction, or to rob you of your confidence.

The more confident you are, the less fear you have, having less fear allows you to see the market from an objective point of view, and therefore you do: [highlight=lightgreen]What you need to do[/highlight], [highlight=violet]When you need to do it[/highlight], [highlight=orange]Without hesitation.[/highlight]
Last edited by TygerKrane on Sun Jan 09, 2011 3:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Mark Douglas notes, Part 4

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Jan 09, 2011 3:46 pm

"Saturday Seminars" - The Dynamics of a Trader's Mindset : MarketClub Trader's Blog, Mark Douglas: (1hr23mins)
http://club.ino.com/trading/2008/07/sat ... s-mindset/[hr][hr]
Success in trading is a function of your attitude and not much else.

What you haven't learned yet, is invisible to you on a chart. When you saw your first chart, you couldn't see where the opportunity was. As you learn things, if you were to go back to that chart you would now be able to see opportunities.
But you can only see the opportunities that you learned (or were trained) to see. Someone else who learned a totally different way of trading could see the same chart and the opportunities that they saw would be different to yours. Your views of opportunity would be invisible to each other.
What you haven't learned yet is invisible to you.
The chart is a display of collective behavior.
The market generates collective behavior patterns.--And those patterns repeat themselves.

There are patterns in the market that are invisible to us because we haven't learned how to see them.

So are we actually seeing the market, or are we only perceiving a reflection of what we have learned about the market??
We are only perceiving a reflection of the market and everything else is invisible until we learn it. So we are not perceiving THE market, but only the part of the market that our mind is capable of understanding based on the distinctions that we've learned to make.

When you can put on a trade without the slightest bit of hesitation without the slightest bit of conflict, take that trade off even it is a loser, again without the slightest bit of hesitation, without the slightest bit of conflict, without it resonating one bit of emotional discomfort; that's when you know that you've accepted the risk.
If you can't do that, then you are not operating out of a mindset that will allow you to become a consistently successful trader.

This is because of the way fear acts on our perception and our ability to do what is needed to be done when we need to do it.

Fear of being wrong and fear of taking a loss.
But as a trader, you can't avoid being wrong, you can't avoid taking a loss; that is a reality of trading.

But our minds are hardwired to avoid pain, and this goes for physical as well as psychological pain.

{24:00}And fear narrows our focus to even less that what we are already able to perceive. It narrows our focus onto the object of our fear. That ends up creating the exact scenario we are trying to avoid. <We want to avoid losses & We want to avoid being wrong.>

The market takes place in our heads.--The market is an arena of endless possibility/opportunity.

A trade is just a trade <--- Is the mindset one needs to have. When you think like that, the trade doesn't possess the same type of significance as it does when you are afraid of being wrong or losing money.

{30:10} People then tend to get out of a losing trade when the energy from the fear of losing money finally become bigger than the energy from the fear of being wrong(admitting you were wrong.)

PART 2
95% of the trading errors you will make will be the result of 4 fears: Fear of Being Wrong / Fear of Losing Money / Fear of Missing Out / Fear of Leaving Money on the Table
...Causing you to be an inconsistent Trader, rather than a consistent one.

We have to get ourselves to the point where we trade without fear.

{4:20} So you need to maintain an objective state of mind b/c when you completely trust yourself, there won't be anything to be afraid of, there won't be anything to fear b/c you will always be in a state of mind where you can always act in your own best interest.

{4:55} You got to have the kind of attitude in place that makes it virtually automatic to do the things you need to do without any conflict in yourself whatsoever.

**{12:40} As long as we are susceptible to rationalizing, justifying and hoping when we are in bad trades, [highlight=grey]we need to fear ourselves and not the market.[/highlight]**

If you are not in an objective state of mind, you are not open to accessing all of the knowledge that you possess about the market (i.e. you will favor recognizing certain characteristics & patterns that you know, while ignoring other knowledge that you have.) How can you trust yourself; and when you don't trust yourself there is fear, and when there is fear, there is hesitation on putting on a trade.

[highlight=yellow]{15:45} If you're afraid of being wrong and you're afraid of losing money, you tell yourself that the solution is in learning more about the market <<systems,indicators,variables>> to reduce your uncertainty.
{16:45} When people don't understand that their losses are a result of their attitude, then naturally they think that their losses are a result of what they don't know about the market. So they think if they learn more about the market (by learning more about systems, indicators, variables, etc.) they can avoid losses and avoid being wrong.
{17:00} If you don't understand that your losses are the result of your attitude, then how else are you going to avoid your losses; you naturally think that your losses are the result of what you don't know about the market.
"So if you learn more about the market, you can avoid losses and avoid being wrong." This is what I[<Mark Douglas>] call the Black Hole of Analysis.
It doesn't work and it never will. You will never learn enough about the market to avoid being wrong and/or avoid losing money. It-Won't-Happen. This can be said definitively b/c of one undeniable fact about the market: every trader who participates is a market variable.[/highlight]

{23:00} Each pattern has a random outcome.

{24:00} When trading your pattern, you can't over-commit on any one trade regardless of the outcomes of several previous signals b/c the outcome of each signal is random and unrelated to the rest.

You have to think in EDGES (= A higher probability of one thing happening over another.)
Therefore, the risk of being wrong and losing money is inherent in every single trade. If you don't recognize this, then you are susceptible to the types of errors that are a result of your fears.

PART 3
{2:00} [font=Courier New][highlight=darkgreen]"It's not what you don't know about the market that causes losses. It's your attitude about losses that causes losses."[/highlight][/font]

Learning more about Technical Analysis & markets & variables is not the path to consistency.
You have to learn how to think in Edges.
You have to learn how to think in Probabilities.
You have to learn how to believe that each trade has a random outcome.

**Keep an awareness of your objectivity while trading.
You also need the ability to pull back from trading.**

{14:20} Attitude: You have to learn how to interpret market information in a way where you take it out of a right or wrong context, where you take it out of a win or lose context so that you don't tap into your fears. B/c if there is anything that the market can do that can cause you to be afraid, that can cause you to experience pain, then it will take you out of your objective frame of mind, and your ability to act in your own best interest and you will never be able to trust yourself.
Do what you need to do, when you need to do it, without hesitation.

{17:45} [highlight=lightgreen]Perceive your Edge.[/highlight] [highlight=violet]Define your Risk.[/highlight] [highlight=orange]Execute your Trade.[/highlight]

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby PebbleTrader » Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:09 pm

Excellent notes!
Life is just a journey

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