TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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TygerKrane
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Re: Supply Zone observation 3

Postby TygerKrane » Fri Jun 11, 2010 4:29 pm

Still observing how supply/demand/ & Custom Candle MOMO's play out through this area...

During that uptrend I marked, I kept getting stopped out for losses, (on both long AND short trades) despite having +20pip gains for most of the trades...not knowing when to close or hold for longer....
Which is why I'm trying these overview shots, and of course will be re-reading my zline notes, and watching Sam Seiden videos. Just trying to get myself a more intuitive understanding of held profit & where orders are stacked. [highlight=yellow]{Paraphrased Note from a Sam Seiden video: If you know what the lowest probability trade is, then you probably know what the highest probability trade is.}[/highlight]

Image


and an overview of about the same period (1 extra day of data) on the M90/4H30MCC chart:

Image
Last edited by TygerKrane on Sat Jun 12, 2010 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Sam Seiden video notes

Postby TygerKrane » Sat Jun 12, 2010 1:21 pm

So I have a list of 15 Sam Seiden videos that I am considering watching. I'm hoping that hearing about the same mechanics of MightyOne's concepts in a slightly different form might make all the difference in improving what I SEE and my interpretation of these charts Price Action.

Sooner rather than Later.

I realize that at some point, my notes will get REALLY redundant in restating the same info in different ways. Let's hope I get some confidence and clarity before that gets too crazy...besides I really don't feel like watching or taking notes on ALL 15 videos.

Here goes:

Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price (32:49)
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/s ... d3a6771192

The Basics of How & Why Prices Move
The People that know getting paid by those that don't know
Price only moves out of a consolidation area when demand exceeds supply (breakout long) or supply exceeds demand (breakout short).
Dealers will still have orders at that breakout point --leading to the first retracement/pullback to the base--

[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]
The 2 novice mistakes we look to profit on: [after the pullback of a breakout LONG; as price returns to the origin of the breakout]
  • Selling after a Decline in Price
  • Selling at a Price level where we already know there is more demand than supply
Take the other side of the trade from the novice (Must be able to determine areas of support & resistance, where demand exceeds supply
[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]

<<If you're trying to sell 5k[highlight=black] where [/highlight] there are orders to buy 10,000k, there is no way you can profit.
<<Learn to be a professional at spotting dumb money; if you can't spot dumb money, then it is probably you.

Candles represent the order flow; don't need doji's and head & shoulders etc.

Find price levels where price could not stay there, where price moved away in a hurry. Understand that they move away in a hurry b/c of an imbalance between buyers and sellers...Look to buy/{sell} the pullbacks to these areas.

Why do prices retrace? B/c professionals get prices back to where their orders are stacked at.

When price rallies really strong from a level, it tells you that there is a strong imbalance of supply and demand at that level. [You want to buy/{sell} the pullback to that level b/c you have just identified a level where big banks have their orders at. Don't worry about missing that big initial move out of the area.]

Sharp point pivots are also good points to note b/c supply & demand is so out of balance at that level that price can only stay there for a short period of time; so you want to enter a pullback to that area.

There are buyers and sellers at each price level, what you want to find out is how many buyers vs sellers are at each price level. This is what the chart is there to tell you.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby aliassmith » Sat Jun 12, 2010 1:43 pm

TygerKrane wrote:So I have a list of 15 Sam Seiden videos that I am considering watching. I'm hoping that hearing about the same mechanics of MightyOne's concepts in a slightly different form might make all the difference in improving what I SEE and my interpretation of these charts Price Action.

Sooner rather than Later.

I realize that at some point, my notes will get REALLY redundant in restating the same info in different ways. Let's hope I get some confidence and clarity before that gets too crazy...besides I really don't feel like watching or taking notes on ALL 15 videos.

Here goes:

Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price (32:49)
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/s ... d3a6771192

The Basics of How & Why Prices Move
The People that know getting paid by those that don't know
Price only moves out of a consolidation area when demand exceeds supply (breakout long) or supply exceeds demand (breakout short).
Dealers will still have orders at that breakout point --leading to the first retracement/pullback to the base--

[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]
The 2 novice mistakes we look to profit on: [after the pullback of a breakout LONG; as price returns to the origin of the breakout]
  • Selling after a Decline in Price
  • Selling at a Price level where we already know there is more demand than supply
Take the other side of the trade from the novice (Must be able to determine areas of support & resistance, where demand exceeds supply
[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]

<<If you're trying to sell 5k[highlight=black] where [/highlight] there are orders to buy 10,000k, there is no way you can profit.
<<Learn to be a professional at spotting dumb money; if you can't spot dumb money, then it is probably you.

Candles represent the order flow; don't need doji's and head & shoulders etc.

Find price levels where price could not stay there, where price moved away in a hurry. Understand that they move away in a hurry b/c of an imbalance between buyers and sellers...Look to buy/{sell} the pullbacks to these areas.

Why do prices retrace? B/c professionals get prices back to where their orders are stacked at.

When price rallies really strong from a level, it tells you that there is a strong imbalance of supply and demand at that level. [You want to buy/{sell} the pullback to that level b/c you have just identified a level where big banks have their orders at. Don't worry about missing that big initial move out of the area.]

Sharp point pivots are also good points to note b/c supply & demand is so out of balance at that level that price can only stay there for a short period of time; so you want to enter a pullback to that area.

There are buyers and sellers at each price level, what you want to find out is how many buyers vs sellers are at each price level. This is what the chart is there to tell you.


I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Sam Seiden video notes 2

Postby TygerKrane » Sat Jun 12, 2010 4:18 pm

Ok, well I'm done with this phase of my learning, LOL. (that was quick)

Also, thanks for the input Alias, I really appreciate, will keep that in mind more as I'm always in your thread anyway. :D

I'll put the links to the videos on the first page, second post of this thread here, for any that are interested.

But let me put up this last set of notes, pretty redundant though.
And let's hope I don't feel the need to go through the other 11 videos I haven't seen yet. (I'm posting notes on three videos, there was a fourth I watched, but didn't like too much.)

I'll re-read my zline notes, and study some pics, and be back to Pip-Pickpocketing by Wednesday.

Here goes:

Trade What Is Real, Not What You Feel: Quantifying Supply (resistance) and Demand (support) In The Forex Markets (45:14)
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/s ... d4dc6bcab2

  1. The ability to objectively quantify Bank (Dealer) and Institution demand and supply on price charts.
  2. Knowing and understanding who is on the other side of your trade.

If you can see where the banks are buying and selling, then it is hard to lose in Forex.
Until all bank supply or demand is filled at that level, it is not possible for price to surpass that level.
You can see this about just as well trading on a chart as on the trading floor. (Volume measurement isn't necessary.)

If you can time your entry properly, you are able to trade low-risk, high-reward. It is absolutely about picking tops and bottoms when the situation is according to your rules.

[highlight=orange]Consistent profits begin with a solid understanding of how markets really work and what is going on behind the scenes in your charts.[/highlight]

Analyzing the ongoing supply and demand relationship(imbalance) within the market.

At price levels where you have the biggest supply and demand imbalances, price spends the least amount of time = sharp point pivots.

The origin of motion/change in price is an equation where one of two competing forces (buyers vs. sellers) become zero at a specific price.

There is no certainty in trading and you have to become comfortable with taking losses as well.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby jarnapal » Sat Jun 12, 2010 5:35 pm

aliassmith wrote:
I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................


Thank you for making it short aliasmith. With range do you mean to trade towards average daily range ?

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby aliassmith » Sat Jun 12, 2010 7:29 pm

jarnapal wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................


Thank you for making it short aliasmith. With range do you mean to trade towards average daily range ?


No range is a price leg that breaks out.
Correction is a pullback within that range.
Order Stacks are high probability areas where large stacks of orders
may cause price to correct. (aka Suppy/Demand, Support/Resistance,
Held Profit, etc.)

Seen on all timeframes :)

I like to trade from a range extreme along the correction leg and from
the correction extreme back to the range extreme.

You can see what I have in my thread, I don't want to muck up Tyger's
too much :)
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby jarnapal » Sat Jun 12, 2010 7:55 pm

aliassmith wrote:
jarnapal wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................


Thank you for making it short aliasmith. With range do you mean to trade towards average daily range ?


No range is a price leg that breaks out.
Correction is a pullback within that range.
Order Stacks are high probability areas where large stacks of orders
may cause price to correct. (aka Suppy/Demand, Support/Resistance,
Held Profit, etc.)

Seen on all timeframes :)

I like to trade from a range extreme along the correction leg and from
the correction extreme back to the range extreme.

You can see what I have in my thread, I don't want to muck up Tyger's
too much :)


Thanks!

I'm gonna look it closer :!:

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby TygerKrane » Sat Jun 12, 2010 10:22 pm

aliassmith wrote:
TygerKrane wrote:So I have a list of 15 Sam Seiden videos that I am considering watching. I'm hoping that hearing about the same mechanics of MightyOne's concepts in a slightly different form might make all the difference in improving what I SEE and my interpretation of these charts Price Action.

Sooner rather than Later.

I realize that at some point, my notes will get REALLY redundant in restating the same info in different ways. Let's hope I get some confidence and clarity before that gets too crazy...besides I really don't feel like watching or taking notes on ALL 15 videos.

Here goes:

Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price (32:49)
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/s ... d3a6771192

The Basics of How & Why Prices Move
The People that know getting paid by those that don't know
Price only moves out of a consolidation area when demand exceeds supply (breakout long) or supply exceeds demand (breakout short).
Dealers will still have orders at that breakout point --leading to the first retracement/pullback to the base--

[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]
The 2 novice mistakes we look to profit on: [after the pullback of a breakout LONG; as price returns to the origin of the breakout]
  • Selling after a Decline in Price
  • Selling at a Price level where we already know there is more demand than supply
Take the other side of the trade from the novice (Must be able to determine areas of support & resistance, where demand exceeds supply
[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]

<<If you're trying to sell 5k[highlight=black] where [/highlight] there are orders to buy 10,000k, there is no way you can profit.
<<Learn to be a professional at spotting dumb money; if you can't spot dumb money, then it is probably you.

Candles represent the order flow; don't need doji's and head & shoulders etc.

Find price levels where price could not stay there, where price moved away in a hurry. Understand that they move away in a hurry b/c of an imbalance between buyers and sellers...Look to buy/{sell} the pullbacks to these areas.

Why do prices retrace? B/c professionals get prices back to where their orders are stacked at.

When price rallies really strong from a level, it tells you that there is a strong imbalance of supply and demand at that level. [You want to buy/{sell} the pullback to that level b/c you have just identified a level where big banks have their orders at. Don't worry about missing that big initial move out of the area.]

Sharp point pivots are also good points to note b/c supply & demand is so out of balance at that level that price can only stay there for a short period of time; so you want to enter a pullback to that area.

There are buyers and sellers at each price level, what you want to find out is how many buyers vs sellers are at each price level. This is what the chart is there to tell you.


I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................


Hey Alias,
I meant to ask from what your posted pics look like, are you doing the majority of your analysis from just the 5M chart? Just looking for ranges on the 5M chart and acting off that, I mean to say?

Thanks,
~Krane

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Sat Jun 12, 2010 10:38 pm

For the first time ever in my life, I attentively watched a soccer (football) match.
I must say, die-hard soccer fans should have an edge up on having the right mentality for trading...

[highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight]

[highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for the ball to get near your opponents goal; and [highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for an actual goal to occur...

vs.

[highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for a MOMO; [highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for a retrace into the MZ or Zline {yes, Zline is any line within MZ I believe MO said} and [highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for your entry signal...

or

[highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for price to be within 20pips of daily extreme; [highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for H1 candle to match intended direction and [highlight=yellow]WAITING[/highlight] for Red/Green/Green - Green/Red/Red...

So I really think it is my Forex trading that makes me able to watch the game more enjoyably, not the fact that it was US vs England.

To all the true football fans amongst us, ENJOY THE MADNESS THAT IS FIFA WORLD CUP 2010!!! :smt026

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Re: Sam Seiden video notes

Postby aliassmith » Sat Jun 12, 2010 11:45 pm

TygerKrane wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
TygerKrane wrote:So I have a list of 15 Sam Seiden videos that I am considering watching. I'm hoping that hearing about the same mechanics of MightyOne's concepts in a slightly different form might make all the difference in improving what I SEE and my interpretation of these charts Price Action.

Sooner rather than Later.

I realize that at some point, my notes will get REALLY redundant in restating the same info in different ways. Let's hope I get some confidence and clarity before that gets too crazy...besides I really don't feel like watching or taking notes on ALL 15 videos.

Here goes:

Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price (32:49)
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/s ... d3a6771192

The Basics of How & Why Prices Move
The People that know getting paid by those that don't know
Price only moves out of a consolidation area when demand exceeds supply (breakout long) or supply exceeds demand (breakout short).
Dealers will still have orders at that breakout point --leading to the first retracement/pullback to the base--

[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]
The 2 novice mistakes we look to profit on: [after the pullback of a breakout LONG; as price returns to the origin of the breakout]
  • Selling after a Decline in Price
  • Selling at a Price level where we already know there is more demand than supply
Take the other side of the trade from the novice (Must be able to determine areas of support & resistance, where demand exceeds supply
[highlight=violet]___________________________________________________________________[/highlight]

<<If you're trying to sell 5k[highlight=black] where [/highlight] there are orders to buy 10,000k, there is no way you can profit.
<<Learn to be a professional at spotting dumb money; if you can't spot dumb money, then it is probably you.

Candles represent the order flow; don't need doji's and head & shoulders etc.

Find price levels where price could not stay there, where price moved away in a hurry. Understand that they move away in a hurry b/c of an imbalance between buyers and sellers...Look to buy/{sell} the pullbacks to these areas.

Why do prices retrace? B/c professionals get prices back to where their orders are stacked at.

When price rallies really strong from a level, it tells you that there is a strong imbalance of supply and demand at that level. [You want to buy/{sell} the pullback to that level b/c you have just identified a level where big banks have their orders at. Don't worry about missing that big initial move out of the area.]

Sharp point pivots are also good points to note b/c supply & demand is so out of balance at that level that price can only stay there for a short period of time; so you want to enter a pullback to that area.

There are buyers and sellers at each price level, what you want to find out is how many buyers vs sellers are at each price level. This is what the chart is there to tell you.


I'll sum it up for you TygerKrane.....

Range
Correction
Order Stacks (ie. SL orders, Breakout orders)

Using the above information, you research/develop entry and exit
methodology based on Price Action (ie. Rat Entry, Zline etc.)

Then practice, practice, practice.........................................


Hey Alias,
I meant to ask from what your posted pics look like, are you doing the majority of your analysis from just the 5M chart? Just looking for ranges on the 5M chart and acting off that, I mean to say?

Thanks,
~Krane


I do a majority of my analysis from the M5 also looking at higher
timeframes for trouble spots. Recently I have been trying to apply
my same method to higher timeframes. I believe they are the same
for the most part. I have a hard time holding long term moves.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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