TygerKrane's Pip-Pickpocketing

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TygerKrane
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Simplicity??

Postby TygerKrane » Sat Apr 17, 2010 3:02 pm

So, I've heard it said that one can in fact be profitable with a simple moving average. (I guess provided you are using good money management, not overtrading; i.e. using appropriate filters so you are not trying hop onto every freaking cross that comes up on your charts.)

And I think I copied these from a MightyOne post:

They are D2 charts

Image

&

Image

--------------------------------------------------
But I can see the same thing on D1 and H4 charts:

Image

&

Image


And what I see is that just by following in the previous candles' direction (ONLY WHEN the current candle is following the same color as the previous), there is great opportunity for profit. Even when the candles switch colors back and forth, there still seem to be wicks when you could've caught a little something.

I guess you would want to be there trading when the candle opens. And some overtrading management for times when the price ranges back and forth over the open. (You still to some degree would have to decide what triggers your entry, even if using the previous candles' color as your deciding criteria.)

And finally, just being honest, I don't run any backtest programs, I just make some observations and zoom into timeframes to see how it plays out.


:::EDIT May 25. 2010:::
I FINALLY found the post. I was starting to think I imagined it...

Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:58 pm(EST) http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=28424#28424

:idea: MightyOne :idea: wrote:
foreman01 wrote:
Patch wrote:Does it make sense to be a Red Rat because the market falls much faster, and farther over a shorter period of time than a market rising?


Might be true for stocks, but forex pairs are relative. If EUR/USD was instead called the USD/EUR pair, then it would go in reverse -- so what does it mean to fall or rise? You buy one EUR you sell the USD at the exact same time - that's what always happens.


As to the idea of only playing one direction. The DTB rat - as I recall - was based a statistical study that said "20 pips from the high, OR LOW" -- both directions were equally valid.

I think on a more generic level one could be a rat by always playing their "system." One often hears pros say "learn one system and stick with it." So in this sense the system could be stated as: be a red rat when 20 pips from the high; and be a green rat when 20 pips from the low.

I feel pretty confident that if this forums experienced traders were to trade both red rats and green rats, that they would still have the same percentage of successes.

LMAO (at myself for this next statement) ON THE OTHER HAND -- it may be that by only playing one direction on one pair that the price action would be different for a red rat than a green rat and thus one would become better at recognizing a successful trade (especially the price action for exiting - because the entrance rules are pretty much ground in stone).


You would only benefit from switching rats if you could tell that price was going to make a strong trending move.

Over one period of time there will be more green than red bars and over another period there will be more red bars than green.

There may even be near equal distribution of red and green bars :shock:

Upon entering into the market you cannot know if price will move 11 or 1,100 pips nor can you tell for sure the beginning of a move from its end.

What you can know are the statistics of individual bars or how the current bar usually interacts with its neighbor(s).

Pick one color and stick to it and maybe later, when you are not subject to an alarm clock, you can attempt to switch just before a strong trending move should you have the experience to do so.

ImageImage
Last edited by TygerKrane on Wed May 26, 2010 10:28 pm, edited 4 times in total.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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TygerKrane
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Candlesticks

Postby TygerKrane » Sat Apr 17, 2010 3:28 pm

I do like Candlestick Analysis tho, (I'm not sure how much I use them, I guess I keep them in mind when looking at H4 and D1 charts.)

This site is pretty good: (click on the Daily or Weekly link in the top left to display all the patterns together. Also if you click on the patterns you get the descriptions.) (The page is based around stocks.)
Hot Candlestick

I like this site in showing how candlesticks show up in the gapless Forex market:
Forex Candlesticks


Two good articles I like on candlestick analysis:

Advanced Candlestick Analysis Part 1 of 2
&
Advanced Candlestick Analysis Part 2 of 2


And the site has a good setup of articles as well, I'll definitely be checking it out more in the future. Here's the sitemap of their articles. Love their tagline:
Your Trading Coach, Because you'd rather be trading for a living
Your Trading Coach, Because you'd rather be trading for a living

There are a good collection of videos as well towards the bottom of the site map. Some Mark Douglas one's too for those who like his stuff. (I've never checked him out, just always hearing his name. He must be some kind of legend like that TRO guy. :P )

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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tmanbone
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Re: Candlesticks

Postby tmanbone » Sat Apr 17, 2010 3:50 pm

TygerKrane wrote:I do like Candlestick Analysis tho, (I'm not sure how much I use them, I guess I keep them in mind when looking at H4 and D1 charts.)

This site is pretty good: (click on the Daily or Weekly link in the top left to display all the patterns together. Also if you click on the patterns you get the descriptions.) (The page is based around stocks.)
Hot Candlestick

I like this site in showing how candlesticks show up in the gapless Forex market:
Forex Candlesticks


Thanks for the links.

Cheers,

Two good articles I like on candlestick analysis:

Advanced Candlestick Analysis Part 1 of 2
&
Advanced Candlestick Analysis Part 2 of 2


And the site has a good setup of articles as well, I'll definitely be checking it out more in the future. Here's the sitemap of their articles. Love their tagline:
Your Trading Coach, Because you'd rather be trading for a living
Your Trading Coach, Because you'd rather be trading for a living

There are a good collection of videos as well towards the bottom of the site map. Some Mark Douglas one's too for those who like his stuff. (I've never checked him out, just always hearing his name. He must be some kind of legend like that TRO guy. :P )
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:04 am

Could someone PLEASE tell me how to get D2 charts in MT4?? I would love to test trading off of that. I makes it easier to be able to see it visually in chart form.

Thanks,
Krane

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:01 am

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1885&start=0

Blubbb's Custom Candle Indi, 9th download down.

Cheers,
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:06 am

TygerKrane wrote:Could someone PLEASE tell me how to get D2 charts in MT4?? I would love to test trading off of that. I makes it easier to be able to see it visually in chart form.

Thanks,
Krane


1. apply a period converter to a daily chart and set the multiplier to 2.

2. open an offline chart and open the D2 chart.

Apply your template to the offline chart.

Do not change the period of the chart that the converter is attached to.

The MN converter is for monthly charts.

There are better converters with time shift, but I never got around to downloading any of them.
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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:25 am

Thanks a TON, this is great!! As far as using a better converter, for a guy like me, who won't even bother to backtest ideas, this works just fine for my purposes.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:30 am

tmanbone wrote:http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1885&start=0

Blubbb's Custom Candle Indi, 9th download down.

Cheers,


Thanks Tman!

Now I just have to balance myself to try out these new things while not interrupting the learning curve on my main method.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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Self-Sabotage

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:51 am

What a cold, gray day in NY, felt more like Fall than Spring. Luckily, I really like Fall. Anyway, good time to self-reflect.

I realized a HORRIBLE habit of mine this week, one that I consciously need to immediately kill from here on out:
](*,) [-X
As much as I tell myself that I want trading to be my business, my escape from the rat race, my only hope for an [schild=1]entrepreneurial[/schild] endeavor; I realized this week one crucial way how I hinder my own progress.

Several times this week after a bad trade, I went into a series of revenge trading and over-leveraged revenge trading. ( :!: Maybe I was hoping to get rich before tax day :?: )

Each time as I was about to start the self-sabotage, I justified to myself that "It's okay, because I am still learning, as a beginner I can allow myself to make such a mistake." I also found myself saying "Well, I'm only trading with a small account, so it's no real problem if I screw this up and grind my balance down."

---- :shock: Seriously Krane, are you REALLY giving yourself an excuse not to try and excel at ALL times with this? :evil: ----

So now that I realize I have one, I'm throwing away my "beginner's" mental crutch.
Besides, How the hell am I gonna get back to Japan if I don't? Cry_Smile
(saving and budgeting is out of the question...I want to EARN this one)


-Hoping Not to Have to Refund My Account [highlight=orange](but I will if I have to)[/highlight] [-o<
Krane

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:15 am

Did I mention I was trying to get back to Japan, lol!?!

Image

Granted, this was taken at NYC's Halloween parade, but still.....


Blame it on the Smirnoff Ice I'm drinking tonight :smt030

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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