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Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:16 pm

newark18 wrote:
Relativity wrote:
newark18 wrote:
Relativity wrote:How big is your NoofCCsToCreate1 value?


50


Now try setting it to 0 to use all candles for NoofCCsToCreate1 only.


Looks much better. Thanks. Am I only supposed to see two sets of waves or three like your original version?


2 sets for now. 3 may be too lagging for smaller swing timeframes.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:30 pm

Relativity wrote:
newark18 wrote:
Relativity wrote:
newark18 wrote:
Relativity wrote:How big is your NoofCCsToCreate1 value?


50


Now try setting it to 0 to use all candles for NoofCCsToCreate1 only.


Looks much better. Thanks. Am I only supposed to see two sets of waves or three like your original version?


2 sets for now. 3 may be too lagging for smaller swing timeframes.


Understood.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:19 am

At first, it was hard to decipher what I was seeing. I didn't know when waves would "set" or at least set temporarily. But then I decided to put these waves on separate TFs and watch three TFs at the same time. And once I did that, I was able to see what the large picture was doing, what the middle TF meant in terms of purchasing at a value, and the lowest TF to make an entry. I also pretty much accidentally put semfors on the same chart. And now I believe that I understand what the semafors mean. For instance, the 3 semafor is the highest TF wave. The number 2 semafor is the middle TF wave. And number 1 is the lowest. I never really studied semafors before so I never fully understood how to properly read it. (Although I could be entirely wrong, but that I what I am seeing right now)

So the point of my post is to thank Relativity for showing me an entirely different perspective. Who knows if this will help me become consistently profitable. All I know is that it has helped me see the market in an entirely different way and in a way, that I believe, will help me become profitable. So thank you for sharing but also thank you for being so helpful in trying to understand it.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Wed Dec 07, 2011 8:20 am

newark18 wrote:At first, it was hard to decipher what I was seeing. I didn't know when waves would "set" or at least set temporarily. But then I decided to put these waves on separate TFs and watch three TFs at the same time. And once I did that, I was able to see what the large picture was doing, what the middle TF meant in terms of purchasing at a value, and the lowest TF to make an entry. I also pretty much accidentally put semfors on the same chart. And now I believe that I understand what the semafors mean. For instance, the 3 semafor is the highest TF wave. The number 2 semafor is the middle TF wave. And number 1 is the lowest. I never really studied semafors before so I never fully understood how to properly read it. (Although I could be entirely wrong, but that I what I am seeing right now)

So the point of my post is to thank Relativity for showing me an entirely different perspective. Who knows if this will help me become consistently profitable. All I know is that it has helped me see the market in an entirely different way and in a way, that I believe, will help me become profitable. So thank you for sharing but also thank you for being so helpful in trying to understand it.


You had done a very useful observation! => Keep it up.

A important hint : a trend in a lower TF wave is a retracement in a higher TF wave. Once you know this, you will know :

1-how much price movement is available for you to take
2-when to trade with trend or against trend

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Postby newark18 » Wed Dec 07, 2011 11:01 pm

Deleted my last post because my pics were obscenely too large.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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Postby Relativity » Thu Dec 08, 2011 8:24 am

TrendTrader_SemiAuto_FULL v2.0 - 08 Dec 2011
Anchoring TF is now at W1-YR1 Week SwingTF, so views are also shifted.
FZR detection logic added.

Statistics.mq4 v4.2 - 08 Dec 2011
Fixed Minor Bugs.

SentimentReader_AFPI_CT_SH.mq4 v3.5 - 08 Dec 2011
Please created forexall.set and place it in experts\files before use.

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Fri Dec 09, 2011 4:10 pm

RELA_StatisticsBellCurve.mq4 v4.5 - 09 Dec 2011

Renamed all the indicators that I intend to work on for the long run.

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:47 pm

Short Crude Oil again. Caught a nice short 150 pips off the monday open thou.

Going to leave this one run since the position % is quite huge on my equity.

FYI RELA_TrendTrader_SemiAuto_FULL v2.5 - 13 Dec 2011 released

_______________________________________________

An explanation of Statistics Bell Curve to a friend on Skype :

[7:35:01 AM] basically
[7:35:26 AM] the bell curve shows when price moves 20 pips
[7:35:42 AM] its a significant move
[7:35:54 AM] coz it can either 1-continue
[7:35:59 AM] 2-stop and reverse
[7:36:15 AM] 3-stop and reverse 20 pips and come back again
[7:36:55 AM] 60% of time #3 happens
[7:37:17 AM] 40% of time #1 or #2 happens
[7:37:26 AM] this is my edge
[7:37:51 AM] very simple, but so hard to learn how to see (initially)
[7:38:51 AM] coz so long i enter correctly
[7:39:12 AM] i will get 60 to 80% edge
[7:39:30 AM] #1 + #3
[7:43:20 AM] when price does #1
[7:43:35 AM] it enters into the higher level bell curve
[7:43:51 AM] which 'locks' it away from the lower level
[7:44:05 AM] which means, when price moves 20++
[7:44:19 AM] aka many traders call breakout
[7:44:27 AM] it rarely comes back
[7:44:36 AM] 60% of time, its not going to come back
[7:45:17 AM] from here, we play the 60 20 20 odds again
[7:46:51 AM] my research has proven
[7:47:01 AM] risk 20 pips
[7:47:15 AM] optimal target profit 40 to 60
[7:47:22 AM] anything more than 60 = luck
[7:47:53 AM] so with R:R around 1:2.5
[7:47:56 AM] not hard
[7:48:10 AM] very very realistic

So its true that when price moves up or down, its not really 50/50 odds. Its more of like 20/80 with good entry, 40/60 with an ok entry. That is assuming if your trading method is sound.

I will admit that everywhere I look, 20 pips always show up. This figure can change; the indicator will tell you. Other instruments will show a different reading from FX, but the general idea of the bell curve should show up. If not, let it tell you what is it showing.
Attachments
EURUSD.PNG
EURUSD.PNG (30.79 KiB) Viewed 2164 times
Crude OIL.PNG
Crude OIL.PNG (30.02 KiB) Viewed 2165 times
Crude Oil Short AVAFX.PNG
Crude Oil Short AVAFX.PNG (74.85 KiB) Viewed 2192 times
Crude Oil Short.PNG
Crude Oil Short.PNG (83.62 KiB) Viewed 2192 times

Relativity
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Supply and Demand, Support and Resistance

Postby Relativity » Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:01 am

And if you think about it carefully; the stats also tell us on a probable level 1-where good entries are, 2- levels of support and resistance (based off supply and demand) across multiple timeframes.

Point 2 is very very difficult to 'understand'. Like how waves from across multiple timeframes affect each other, so do their support and resistance levels. When you know that, then seeing why certain levels hold/break makes perfect sense.

There are many ways known ways to look at Supply and Demand, Support and Resistance. But all of them have their problems. Lets have a critical look at them :

1- Extreme of waves/ZZs
If we take the extreme price as an SR Line, the problem is what do we do when it breaks? What is considered as a break? If it is 'padded' into a zone, how big a zone is considered acceptable?

2- Boilinger bands at 2 std dev and various conventional indicators
Same problem as #1, but harder to use since the lines move + are not straight. I used to like them until I figured reading them on the long run kills more of my brain cells.

3- Rounded numbers / Psych Zones
Same problem as #1, but are much more reliable. Currently I am using 15+15 pips as 'padding', making it a zone. Its statistically proven. Just observe how price reacts when it reaches such zones. The problem is that its not good enough, even thou its important, since big players look at big numbers.

4- VSA and Volume based indicators
Tick volume VS Contracts volume. Its controversial, but here's my take about volume; traders don't trade volume, traders trade price. There are ways to trick volume based traders if you are a big player e.g. you don't push your lots all in one go, but in very very micro increments, spread across time, faking your way in. And VSA works off the basis of time too (on a technical level, if you look carefully), so who is correct? Too micro intensive, too isolated. I still say it does work since it measures the flight and fight reaction of the market, but its just too much brain work.

5- Sam Seiden's method
Subjective approach. IMO its not objective enough. Withnail mentioned looking at areas where price has paused previously. Ok, thats excellent, but to define price pauses in say a M1 chart does not tell us the full picture. Its a good start, but not good enough. It doesn't tell us why certain levels on M1 break. So if we plot on the M5 level and further up, we can get some answers. But it will take forever. Also, everyone sees 'areas where price has paused previously differently. Some people take inside bars, some take the wicks, some use channels. Who is correct?

6- Candle Wicks
Wicks show rejection of price. But I propose that they do not do this accurately enough on timeframes higher than H1, due to timezone differences. A trader using H4 or D1 candle will see a different candle when compared to NY time start and London time start.

7- Wave Analysis
Too subjective. Way way way too subjective. They do work, they have their merits, but I will not explain here since it will make the average person go mad. Not worth the trouble!

8- Trendlines and Channels
I like trendlines. They are good; they give me an overall view where price is going to turn or break or continue. They have a good projection of where price can go. But further observation tells me that they do not tell the full story of price action, although they did tell a good part of it. Simple, effective so long the wave / swing construction is correct. I got past that.

9- The 50% Rule
Always trade 50% retracements. Its a good rule, but heres the problem : where? Where is the trend? Which trend is this rule referring to? Which retracement are we talking about? Retracement of a candle momo? Retracement of a wave? Is this rule really 'universal'? Is the 'mid point' really so magical?

10- Point and Figure / Renko / Range bars
Price based only. No time. These are good since they filter out a lot of excessive price action, but frankly I avoided using them since I am comfortable working with price + time.

11- Jason Alan Jankovsky's work
Watch This
And This.

With all this said, do not assume I am correct. Do your own research. Have your own screen time. Nothing can really replace screen time : all of my conclusions are a combination of some basic common sense + lots and lots of screen time.

See it for yourself.

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Wed Dec 14, 2011 2:27 pm

Crude Oil Update : So, I came back home with a nice surprise. Decided to take profit =>
Attachments
crude oil profit.PNG
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