The ideas that I trade by:

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

thepark
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:00 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Tue May 10, 2016 1:39 pm

MightyOne wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Get better at something


The angled lines are a diversion tactic.

AngledLines.png


People cannot get past the word "something" which is simply a word for "there is no need to define it, it is what it is, price is above or below something"

"Price cannot rise on wicks, neither can it fall without closing lower [than something]"

"Something" is the direction of profit, if you knew something then you would only trade in that direction.

Why did I mark cones? Because I believe that EVERYTHING is a cone!
If that is not what you SEE then don't draw them.

There are many methods that you can use to mark cones or 1-2-3 or anything else & it doesn't matter how you draw them; the only thing that matters is that it is what you see and that you know how you are going to trade it.

As I said before, it is my belief that there are breakouts, from some pattern (everything is a cone), and there are break-ins and there are range expansions.
Analysis, aka "art class", is done on H1+ and entries are based on H1+ using smaller charts.

It is expected that the weekly range will expand to within .625 to 1.375 of the weekly median range.
The daily range is more volatile, once the range expands to about 31.25% of median then you are trading away from that line.

Knowing all of these things you should have the confidence to pick a direction (profit) and hold for an expansion; not because you know the future, but because you know that price will expand the range in one direction or the other.

GBPUSDH4.png



so once the daily range expands to 31.25% of the median daily range of the last three days would it usually expand to 0.625 of daily median range just like weekly?

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Tue May 10, 2016 3:03 pm

thepark wrote:

so once the daily range expands to 31.25% of the median daily range of the last three days would it usually expand to 0.625 of daily median range just like weekly?



20% if price decides to go nowhere.
31% on normal days
46%+ if it is an mbar or the filling out of a cone.

Your line doesn't have to be drawn exactly at these numbers, you just know to draw "something" somewhere when these numbers are reached.

An mbar can be nearly as long as the weekly median but our focus is on reliable minimum targets.

I use two different medians:
a) median of last 3 weeks
b) median of remaining ranges, of the last 6 weeks, after the largest and two smallest ranges are crossed off.
"a" is for weekly targets
"b" is for position sizing & daily targets...
...but feel free to use whichever method you like.

AUDCADDaily.png
AUDCADDaily.png (25.14 KiB) Viewed 557 times
Last edited by MightyOne on Tue May 10, 2016 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Tue May 10, 2016 3:20 pm

Here is an updated picture of the AUDCAD

& here is a LINK to the first chart.

AUDCADH1.png
AUDCADH1.png (35.08 KiB) Viewed 554 times

thepark
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:00 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Tue May 10, 2016 3:45 pm

MightyOne wrote:Here is an updated picture of the AUDCAD

& here is a LINK to the first chart.

AUDCADH1.png

:shock: :shock: one day i will understand cones =D>

got stopped out short gbpusd on the breakout low and usdcad on the breakout high aiming for weekly targets, would u have taken these trades MO? what would you have done differently? thanks

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Tue May 10, 2016 4:32 pm

thepark wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Here is an updated picture of the AUDCAD

& here is a LINK to the first chart.

AUDCADH1.png

:shock: :shock: one day i will understand cones =D>

got stopped out short gbpusd on the breakout low and usdcad on the breakout high aiming for weekly targets, would u have taken these trades MO? what would you have done differently? thanks


Getting stopped out does not mean that you made a mistake.

Look at the charts from the top down, form an idea, then trade the idea from the bottom up.
Long-term targets are usually hit with only a fraction of your original size for a few extra lines, but those extra lines add up.

I have an appointment to go to so I can only look at your charts briefly:

USDCADDaily.png
USDCADDaily.png (31.68 KiB) Viewed 523 times
Last edited by MightyOne on Tue May 10, 2016 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

thepark
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:00 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Tue May 10, 2016 4:45 pm

MightyOne wrote:
thepark wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Here is an updated picture of the AUDCAD

& here is a LINK to the first chart.

AUDCADH1.png

:shock: :shock: one day i will understand cones =D>

got stopped out short gbpusd on the breakout low and usdcad on the breakout high aiming for weekly targets, would u have taken these trades MO? what would you have done differently? thanks


Getting stopped out does not mean that you made a mistake.

Look at the charts from the top down, form an idea, then trade the idea from the bottom up.
Long term-targets are usually hit with only a fraction of your original size for a few extra lines, but those extra lines add up.

I have an appointment to go to so I can only look at your charts briefly:

USDCADDaily.png


thanks MO, I marked up my chart

Image

USDCAD Simple breakout trade with 3 macro (50 pip SL), strategy is BDP, WDL to weekly target. Should I have just taken a scalp?


Image


Same idea as USDCAD

The sharp candle up to 1.44789 is a Wick on High timeframe so thats why I took that short but also got stopped out.

I am thinking trading after a candle closes over something does not allow me to enter in early. Even if i pick the correct direction I always have a lot of drawdown and in this case, loss. But entering before BDP I am blindly guessing.

In your analysis you used cones, theres a breakout for USDCAD and you would short from the BO back into the cone?

User avatar
Jalarupa
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1141
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 5:50 pm
Reputation: 2
Location: South Africa
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Wed May 11, 2016 3:03 am

In your analysis you used cones, theres a breakout for USDCAD and you would short from the BO back into the cone?


Look left...

What do you SEE?

ZLines, Mighty Zones, BDP, a HOOK...

Clearly it's a good place to sell...

MO had also showed how price moves in a pattern... We have pierced the top cone in an area where there are lots of sell orders according to simple TA...

So you could and should sell at anytime provided your stop is out of reach... Start small maybe and scale in...? That way you don't lose a full position?

Remember if this Cone Patten is to be believed... We should at least touch the bottom line... And possibly bounce... Then break then BDP... Etc... So there is ample time to scale... It's a H4 chart... So many pips from top to bottom and vice versa...

Sorry I know I'm not MO but the answers to your question are all there for you... You already know them...
"our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate... our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure... It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us..."

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

User avatar
prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5545
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:07 am
Reputation: 8
Location: Granbury, TX
Gender: Male
Contact:

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby prochargedmopar » Wed May 11, 2016 4:54 am

MightyOne wrote:
Getting stopped out does not mean that you made a mistake.

Look at the charts from the top down, form an idea, then trade the idea from the bottom up.


This statement pretty much sums up trading.

Simple.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

IDEAS WORTH TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Wed May 11, 2016 4:25 pm

You have heard it said that "trading is placing and trailing stops on a larger chart".

I do not concern myself with entries, if the risk is acceptable then the trade is "good".

STEP 1: what is the direction of profit?
Notice that the direction of profit, the blue lines, is slow to change because it is a bias.

STEP 2: where would you place your stop loss on a larger chart?
These are the horizontal lines that you are trading away from.

STEP 3a: attach a line to the stop and enter a trade within it on a smaller chart (10 or 15 minute charts are personal favorites).
If you are trading USDCAD for 20's then 1 line is 20 pips.

Ask yourself how badly you want in this trade. If your maximum stop is 3 lines then you can chase price up to three lines...like a dog that is chained up in a yard.
Yes, you could mark a lower red x, but you want to think about whether or not you would do so if you were already short.
We must also consider where we are within the daily/weekly ranges when chasing price.

STEP 3b: on an M10 chart you will just be looking for that chart to move in the direction of profit, if it has not already done so, before entering within so many lines of the red x.

USDCADH4.png
USDCADH4.png (24.45 KiB) Viewed 360 times

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Wed May 11, 2016 4:44 pm

Had a chance to look over your charts:

for_thepark.png
for_thepark.png (29.96 KiB) Viewed 357 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”