The ideas that I trade by:

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MightyOne
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:20 pm

Captain Pugwash wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Yes, but I will trade in anticipation of a second failure on a small chart.

When the candle finally does close lower I call it 'conformity'; 'confirmation' is waiting for something to happen, 'conformity' is doing something first and expecting things to follow suit.

Don't get carried away though, if there is a LH breakout and there is no short term signal to go short or the daily candle is getting a bit long then there is no expectation of failure.


If I understand right - can i assume that if we did NOT see "conformity" - i.e we got a close back up in the zone ( in your example) - I should be thinking of liquidating a position at the best price? - Having a plan for when things do not go as planned sort of thing?


Also any gained space is not necessarily used on the same pair - nice if it happens but not essential? just take your lot size and use it on the next double failure?

Maybe one proviso - I may decide to ignore only if i believe I hold a yearly extreme

Thanks for not being here btw :D


Plans can and do break but it is not necessarily a bad thing; instead of that 2nd failure you get a close lower & now you have a body in the direction of profit & your new plan is to trade in the direction of profit:

EURJPYMonthly.png
EURJPYMonthly.png (17.18 KiB) Viewed 924 times


Having traded monthly/quarterly/yearly extremes, I recommend that your largest period does not exceed 2 weeks :lol:

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If you come to this thread with pen and paper in hand then you will fail to find the beauty that exists within yourself.

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Captain Pugwash
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Captain Pugwash » Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:29 pm

Thanks so much for that reply MO - I am bloody pleased I had the cheek to ask :) :) :)

And that chart is Really Appreciated
"MOJO 1)Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation. Esp/In context of contest or display of skill such as going into battle. 2)Ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude YEH BABY

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:28 pm

MightyOne wrote:I am mostly interested in 'double failures':

Lower high (failure 1), breakout of lower high but does not close higher (failure 2)

price is in a down-trend, there is a higher high that fails to close higher (1), there is a breakout of that higher high but price fails to close higher (2).

Two is a trend :wink:

If you are simply trying to get in on a good thing then you can use any long term breakout as your stop:

usdcaddaily.png


I am trying to understand this please can someone explain it like im five? when u say lower high (failure 1) and breakout of lower high but does not close higher? Do you mean we are in an uptrend and the price pulls back, and rebounds upwards and then fails to make a new high?

In your second paragraph, price is in down trend, the price has already pulled back and then after awhile fails to break resistance? then there is a breakout downwards and then the price pulls back and again, fails to break resistance again?

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Captain Pugwash » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:13 pm

thepark wrote:
I am trying to understand this please can someone explain it like im five? when u say lower high (failure 1) and breakout of lower high but does not close higher?


It means we have a breakout lower - and price STAYS lower - it is not a breakout that looks like a long wick (that sort of breakout is rejected and may actually close HIGHER than the initial breakout.

so we breakout lower and price CLOSES lower than the initial breakout -

We Now see BODY IN THE DIRECTION OF PROFIT

well that's my go at an expatiation - if you can beleive anyone who cant spell worth sh*te :D
"MOJO 1)Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation. Esp/In context of contest or display of skill such as going into battle. 2)Ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude YEH BABY

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:36 pm

Captain Pugwash wrote:
thepark wrote:
I am trying to understand this please can someone explain it like im five? when u say lower high (failure 1) and breakout of lower high but does not close higher?


It means we have a breakout lower - and price STAYS lower - it is not a breakout that looks like a long wick (that sort of breakout is rejected and may actually close HIGHER than the initial breakout.

so we breakout lower and price CLOSES lower than the initial breakout -

We Now see BODY IN THE DIRECTION OF PROFIT

well that's my go at an expatiation - if you can beleive anyone who cant spell worth sh*te :D


so its simply price breakouts lower and then closes lower again beyond the first breakout? What does MO mean by lower "high" then?

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Captain Pugwash » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:48 pm

unless I am missing something - exactly what it says -

if price is making (say) higher daily highs and higher daily lows - its telling you --- what? - its going up

this is an example of what seacap was asking a few pages ago in relation to the spike up on GU

For many days price was doing the above on a daily candle.

BUT be aware when the candle is coming back at you - it is a living candle - it frightens you because it looks solid and real- the printed candle is the only truth - the current candle is the illusion.

price returns to the breakout to take the profit from the breakout traders - then carries on in the direction of profit - it forms a wick doing this - the illusion

btw a dragon line is a wick on the higher timeframe - but its still a wick (that's (say) a long body going up and then one coming down)
"MOJO 1)Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation. Esp/In context of contest or display of skill such as going into battle. 2)Ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude YEH BABY

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Jalarupa » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:14 pm

Wow Pug...

Need to chat with you again sometime...

You have really a good handle on this all...

Sounding more and more like a blind mouse everyday... :)
"our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate... our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure... It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us..."

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:24 pm

I'll try to get around to the other questions later...

CADJPYDaily.png
CADJPYDaily.png (20.53 KiB) Viewed 779 times


This is by far my favorite setup as it works so well so often ^^
(probably because it is a type of 1-2-3)

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby thepark » Wed Apr 22, 2015 2:27 pm

MightyOne wrote:I'll try to get around to the other questions later...

CADJPYDaily.png


This is by far my favorite setup as it works so well so often ^^
(probably because it is a type of 1-2-3)



Thanks MO. I noticed in the last chart, the candles dont need to appear consecutively for the setup to work, but I presume they must occur within a reasonable timeframe (within 5 candles)?

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:10 pm

thepark wrote:
MightyOne wrote:I'll try to get around to the other questions later...

This is by far my favorite setup as it works so well so often ^^
(probably because it is a type of 1-2-3)



Thanks MO. I noticed in the last chart, the candles dont need to appear consecutively for the setup to work, but I presume they must occur within a reasonable timeframe (within 5 candles)?


CADJPYWeekly.png
CADJPYWeekly.png (21.45 KiB) Viewed 702 times


I hope that this chart doesn't confuse you.

Down-arrows mark the 'at or better' areas where I would try to rest my stops for a short & up arrows are for the longs.

The first idea is the BOx trade and it is a pretty weak idea, given the area but I take what I can get. Looking at the short term there may be no indication to short so I take a short term long into the break-in for 'space'.

Most break-ins (BI) are tradable short, so long as the body of the BI is small, so I attempt a short there.

Now nothing would make me happier than to rain short orders as price goes barreling into the low pivot of the last price leg but there has been no 'real' close lower and this line ~94 has continuously been rejected. Again, looking at the small chart for an indication that price is indeed starting upward I go long (first up arrow) towards the lower high line; notice also that this candle breaks any previous attempt to draw an uptrend so it is itself part of a larger pattern higher low breakout failure.

Price breaks the lower high (LH) line, which is getting pretty old, so I look to the small chart to decide if I should push through it (price is not slowing down) or reverse. I reverse and go short but it is clear that I am running out of short ideas while long ideas are piling up.

By this time I have hit my %goal twice and am starting a new 'space' with 3 more cycles to complete.

I tell you all of this that you might see that sometimes I don't know where I am going as far as direction but I know where I am going as far as reaching a %goal.

I trade a chart but I am not 'trading' a chart; my focus is simply on accumulating lots until a %gain is realized...
...and that is why I say that nothing makes sense without space; you trade north for 500 pips but where are you
going (what is your goal), what have you accomplished without accumulation (nothing!)?

So many traders are pip rich and money poor & these are the same traders that say that they will 'practice accumulation later'.

CADJPYWeekly.png
CADJPYWeekly.png (21.45 KiB) Viewed 702 times

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