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SmokyByers
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Postby SmokyByers » Fri May 21, 2010 3:44 pm

Bender,

Here are a few of my own indicators I have derived from the base Gen.4 system:

DVGain- A derivative of DV fills
DVOF- A derivative of DV fills
OFMax- An indicator based on the current condition of TCD fills
OFSum- ""
CFS
SumLast
Syn-IR
Syn-Proj
Gap/90IR
Cont/TT3
LBGate

Most of these work pretty well in most markets, though I'm still missing the piece (or pieces) of the puzzle that brings it together.

Also, my accuracy for the scalping system was more like 75 - 80%, but the risk:reward is on the risky side. 75% with a 2:1 risk/reward becomes closer to trading at 50%. Such is the case with scalping, you either need something closer to 90% accuracy or find a way to bring the R:R closer to 1:1 (a very tough task when scalping). There's a lot more 'black swans' in the shorter time frames as well, owing to the noise. TCD fills that jump all over the place, patterns that don't repeat, etc.

Smoke

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SignalBender
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Postby SignalBender » Fri May 21, 2010 7:05 pm

SmokyByers wrote:Yes, quite right. I didn't mean to say I had 'all' of it. The point I was trying to make was using the basics, the TCD's and the DV behave much differently at the smaller time frames at least from my vantage point.


Actually, they are the same calculations deriving the same output values from the same inputs. The only difference is the time-frame, thus what appears to be different behavior, is really a distinction without a difference. The time-interval causes an increase in rapidity - an actual compression of what you normally observe in the higher bars. A true difference without distinction.


SmokyByers wrote:I didn't mean to come off cocky (I've been accused of that before), just letting you know I had done some work in that area albeit with a limited system.


I did not think you were cocky - no need to explain. If I thought you were that, I would have never replied in such detail. I provided the detail to make the differentials between G1 through G4 -vs- G4 through G7, as clear as I can in public - at least in synopsis form.


SmokyByers wrote:...and yes, a lot of my own discoveries are in there too.


Congrats! That was my sole purpose for even doing an public discourse in my work - to get people thinking outside the box, because outside the box is where I made my most important gains as a Professional Trader.

Congrats and way to go! That's how it should be. If everyone could use RSI and make Billions, things would be different. Going outside the box and trying to discover avenues that lead to consistent capital growth, is what sets the serious Traders apart from the rest.

Either you must have inside information about where currency prices are headed, or you must have some other kind of edge that gets you in and out at the right time. Quite frankly, I don't care what method you select, just as long as YOU are profitable! The more YOU are profitable, the more liquidity will be available at all time-frames. And, that benefits all!

A rising tide floats all boats. Or, in the case of where TRO is right now, all Yachts!

BTW (off subject) - I saw a very sweet 150 foot yacht, all decked out just the way I like to see them, over in Monaco. A total wet dream! Hey, TRO - take some pics of some of the really long private yachts and post a few for me here. I'm really starting to appreciate the yachting lifestyle from a distance (for now). I just think those things are so fun looking.

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Fri May 21, 2010 7:14 pm

Have a scroll here Signal Bender: http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2502&start=70 6th post down.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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forexjake80
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Postby forexjake80 » Fri May 21, 2010 7:41 pm

Signal Bender,

definition of internal/contiguous/non-contiguous was clear. Let me ask in a different way: Correct me where i am wrong.

Data Point = Open, High, Low or Close of a Bar --> each bar has exactly 4 Data points.

Delta = 2 connected Data Points, Delta is not stating at all what bars we are talking about

Omega = Internal Delta, connecting High&Low (2 Data Points) of the same bar

TCD Long/Short is one kind of a Trajectory.
TCD Long/Short is connecting exactly 2 Data points of contiguous bars.

My OR MORE question again here: How can you connect more than 2 Data Points? Delta is always the difference between 2 data points, isn´t it?

Besides the above, there is the 3rd category of non-contigous deltas, please confirm you have not talked about this so far...? (I can´t wait you start to :-) )

SignalBender
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Postby SignalBender » Fri May 21, 2010 7:48 pm

SmokyByers wrote:DVGain- A derivative of DV fills
DVOF- A derivative of DV fills
OFMax- An indicator based on the current condition of TCD fills
OFSum- ""
CFS
SumLast
Syn-IR
Syn-Proj
Gap/90IR
Cont/TT3
LBGate


Outstanding progression of extensions from the old. Precisely what outside the box thinking is all about!

SmokyByers wrote:Most of these work pretty well in most markets, though I'm still missing the piece (or pieces) of the puzzle that brings it together....

...There's a lot more 'black swans' in the shorter time frames as well, owing to the noise. TCD fills that jump all over the place, patterns that don't repeat, etc.


Synergy. If you have not yet worked that concept into Delta based trading, then you might want to look there. Synergy and Synchronicity between multiple time-frames among the TCDs and in your case (because you were around back then when I was discussing the topic) Distinct Vega. If you have had access through your programming skills, to the lower time-frames, then you should know above all else on this forum the power behind the synergy of LocBind, alone!

It is harder to find LocBind synergy if you only have Daily, Weekly and Monthly data, the gaps between powerful moves are bigger. But, if you've had access to the lower time-intervals AND you understood the LocBind principle alone - then I would expect you to be able to find PLENTY of gorgeous looking 5 to 20 pip moves all over the darn place! The market is littered with these kinds of opportunities when you can access the lower bars with Delta based trading. You can make a tidy career in just LocBind all by itself at that level - you don't really need anything else.

I would caution you to re-think what Delta based trading means and why it is important to the structure of price.

How?

Examine the Fill%. You MUST do a thorough study of the Fills in all time-frames that you are interested in exploiting. Just because the Daily TCDs reach F% = 100%, does not necessarily mean that a substantial enough pivot is guaranteed. That's not a "pattern that does not repeat," rather, it means that there is either an overlying or underlying TCD saga still unfolding.

What did Einstein tech us? Quote: "You cannot solve a problem at the level at which it was created." That's brilliant thinking.

So, if Daily TCD-Long (SAC, TAC and RT) are blowing holes through 100% and not retracing into the TCD-Short "on demand" or "because we want it to," then query the problem at a different level (do what Einstein said). Investigate the TCD and Distinct Vega activity in the intervals both ABOVE and BELOW the current "problem child." If the Daily is blowing its lid, then you know the lower TCDs are going crazy to the upside. Therefore, check the higher TCDs (above Daily) to see what there F% looks like. At some point, you will run into a TCD on the higher side that is not blowing its lid and that is where you set-up shop and wait like a Stealth Trader would.

But, how do you know that this larger TCD time-frame is the "one?" Research! Historical and Empirical Evidence! How many times has this larger TCD blown its top? What is the average F% on this bigger TCD? What is its Max-F%? Its Min-F%? What is the historical TRUTH about this bigger TCD that is not blowing its top like all the others below it?

This same kind of Trace Analysis holds true in the opposite direction. When the larger TCDs are F% off the charts, the smaller TCD F% values should be pegged in the same direction. If not, which end of the lower TCD spectrum is unlocking itself from the Larger Dominant Trajectories by attempting to pull in the opposite direction? Remember, these are LOWER time-intervals, so you won't miss an opportunity by paying attention to several cycles of pulling away from the Dominant Trajectories. At some point, the smaller TCD will need to start pegging their respective F% in the opposite direction on a consistent basis. This is when the pivot is most likely (highest probability) to occur.

If you have access to the lower time-frames (as you said you did) then TCD analysis takes on a whole new meaning. I never had such access, to I was forced to develop other tools (Indicators) that gave me inside vision on what was going on with the Daily TCD. With the lower time-interval TCDs, it is like having night vision goggles. You can see in the dark, while others can't. Advantage, StealthTrader.

Think creatively about the tools you develop that help you do insightful analysis, to see the reason why price behaves the way it does. The analysis makes the indicator worthy of use. If the analysis is deep, so to will be the indicator. If the analysis reveals causality, the indicator will reveal causality. Trading at effect is cool and it works. Trading at causality is optimally superior, by definition.

It is all about the analysis. It always has been and as far as I know, it always will be.

Hope this helped.

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SignalBender
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Postby SignalBender » Fri May 21, 2010 8:05 pm

tmanbone wrote:Have a scroll here Signal Bender: http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2502&start=70 6th post down.


Thanks! They are very nice. Of course, my Wife loves them more. :)

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Postby SignalBender » Fri May 21, 2010 8:56 pm

forexjake80 wrote:Data Point = Open, High, Low or Close of a Bar --> each bar has exactly 4 Data points.


Correct.

forexjake80 wrote:Delta = 2 connected Data Points, Delta is not stating at all what bars we are talking about


Correct.

forexjake80 wrote:Omega = Internal Delta, connecting High&Low (2 Data Points) of the same bar


Correct.

forexjake80 wrote:TCD Long/Short is one kind of a Trajectory.


Correct. There are an endless number of different types - as many as your mind can find. TCDs are unique in that no price activity occurs outside their range and the termination (end points) of both mark the definition of the current bar's Absolute Omega.

forexjake80 wrote:TCD Long/Short is connecting exactly 2 Data points of contiguous bars.


Correct. That's what gives it predictable structure.

forexjake80 wrote:How can you connect more than 2 Data Points?


Easy:

1 Bar: Open High Low Close
2 Bar: Open High Low Close
3 Bar: Open High Low Close
4 Bar: Open High Low Close
5 Bar: Open High Low Close

New_Trajectory1 = (5 Bar Low - 3 Bar Close + 1 Bar Close - 4 Bar High)

Or,

New_Trajectory2 = ((5 Bar Low - 3 Bar Close) - ((1 Bar HScale) * (.5)))

Or (G5 through G7 code)

New_Trajectory3 = ((Weekly 5 Bar Low - Weekly 3 Bar Close) - ((Weekly 1 Bar Weekly HScale) * (.5))) - (Daily 2 Bar Open - Daily 1 Bar Close))

This is why you have to make a clear distinction between Contiguous and Non-Contiguous Delta types. Contiguous Deltas are the easiest to understand, whereas Non-Contiguous Delta types can be as complex as you need them to be. As long as the Delta offers predictability, then it has usefulness. The Non-Contiguous Deltas calculations are limitless. You can literally do whatever you want or need to do, in order to produce quality indicators and trade signals.

This is why I say it might benefit you to re-examine the concept of Delta based trading. When you understand the fundamental purpose and reason behind having Delta concepts in the first place - it becomes very clear as to why they are so necessary for seeing beyond where the average Trader can see at any given point in the market.

This is why finding good Delta Patterns, is such a worthy research project. You can literally find gaps (that refill) in the market that nobody else even knows exists! Very stealthy. ;)


forexjake80 wrote:Delta is always the difference between 2 data points, isn´t it?


See last answer given.


forexjake80 wrote:Besides the above, there is the 3rd category of non-contigous deltas, please confirm you have not talked about this so far...? (I can´t wait you start to :-) )


That's the 3rd dimension of so-called "Price" and I just gave it to you. Price is not what most think it is. There is no real "here" or "there" with "Price." Price is smeared across both Time and Space. Everybody is out there trying to find out what "Price" is going to do next, when they might be better served in trying to figure out what Value is going to do next. Sorros, understands this and many other very successful Traders get this point.

Discovering value, is not a new hot topic. It has been around for eons. Yet, somehow, as "Traders," we forgot about value a very long time ago and consider it outdated or too slow a concept for us to bother with. Most people will think of value in terms of Fundamental Value intrinsic to a particular instrument. That's one kind of value. However, that value that I refer to is Delta Value or DV. Delta Value is based on the historical and empirically proven fact that "Price" does have structure.

In the movie Alien, Arnold said: "If it bleeds, we can kill it." In trading, I say: If it has structure, then we can exploit the missing Delta.

And, that's what Delta Trading is all about. Finding the unique missing Deltas and then exploiting their need return home (or, back-fill) for profit. Not simple Fibonacci Retracement, as that only connects two data points together to form a potential retracement path. Non-Contiguous Deltas can be interlaced and/or embedded into each other to produce a synergy - or a new Delta pattern altogether. Thus, their permutations are endless, creating the 3rd dimension of "Price."

Dimension 1 are the Data Points (OHLC). Dimension 2 is Time. And, Dimension 3 is the Delta Pattern itself. Most technical analysis deals only with Price and Time, while omitting the 3rd Dimension.

Alas, there is a 4th Dimension. But, I can never discuss that in public. However, the 3rd Dimension yields very many clues about the 4th.

SignalBender
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Postby SignalBender » Sat May 22, 2010 2:20 am

Ok, TRO. (when you get back from Southland)

Time to start building the first Indicator Panel. I'm basically giving this to you, in the way I would progress through my research using Excel. So, here goes.

On, second thought - I'll wait until you get back. I just thought about something else. So, I'll wait.

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forexbob
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Postby forexbob » Sat May 22, 2010 1:03 pm

i am bad in quoting your answers signalbender, still it is appreciated. ( a little busy on a lot of different things the latest time. )

i fully agree with you, nicky from protrader is very supportive.
and i also have seen bugs disappear overnight.

and in the meantime some WHY link. http://www.why-yachts.com/
as TRO would say: why we do this? because we can.

looking forward to whatever is following in this thread.
The highest Forex rebates: http://www.cashbackforex.info

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Postby forexjake80 » Mon May 24, 2010 3:56 pm

cold is back... gotta check our for a few days i guess. And not a single beach in Frankfurt :-( Make sure to stick around signal bender, i will have more question waiting for you :-)
It's time to kick ass and chew bubble gum. And I'm all out of gum.

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