ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:01 am

#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:12 am

+11 scalp

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#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby ajaymein » Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:57 am

prochargedmopar wrote:+709 atm

http://clip2net.com/s/QT62


Holy s**t nice hold!

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Postby MightyOne » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:22 pm

prochargedmopar wrote:+709 atm

http://clip2net.com/s/QT62


You bring a tear to my eye son :cry:

Hitting the buy-buy-buy(!) button on the way up, you would make fistfulls of cash & that is exactly all I really do.

These small trades where you risk 2-5% and cringe with terror when the market moves 8 pips against you is just...well I'll leave it at that.

I hope you mix in more long term trades in the future and find much success PRO :shock: !

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Postby prochargedmopar » Tue May 24, 2011 12:38 am

Hi,
:)
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby prochargedmopar » Tue May 24, 2011 12:50 am

This trade is killing me, So little for holding so long.
The advice was to (buy-buy-buy) as it would have been a little more worth the margin. But hey, I have a target.

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#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby MightyOne » Tue May 24, 2011 3:05 am

It might not be 400% a day but at least it is money that you can bank on withdrawing.

Once you're done playing the market on the short periods you can start making that spending money ;)

Congrats for your ability to hold...

Best wishes PRO- M1

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Postby prochargedmopar » Thu May 26, 2011 10:52 pm

Reading Price Bar by stinking bar is FANTASTIC!!!!

"It is more important to follow your heart than to follow a glowstick." M.O.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby PebbleTrader » Fri May 27, 2011 11:32 pm

MightyOne wrote:
Let us say that you are used to trading 2 mini lots, but you suffered a massive draw down and are now trading 1 mini lot:

Which is more easy:

A. $1 per pip with a 15 SL & targeting 5+ pips

or

B. $0.10 per pip with a 15 SL targeting 150 pips w/ 10 attempts to do so?



A: 10 trades mostly losers (60%): -$90 in losses + :

A1: 5 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $20 in profit = -$70 total

A2: 10 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $40 in profit = -$50 total

A2: 20 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $80 in profit = -$10 total

A2: 40 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $160 in profit = $70 total
(aha! PROFIT!)

or

B: 10 trades mostly losers (60%): -$9 in losses + $60 in profit = $51 total

What if my win % were 90%?

A: 40 pips per trade: $360 in profit - $15 in losses = $345 total

B: 150 pips per trade at 1/10: $135 - $1.50 = $133.50

But lets compare maximum daily loss of 10 trades:

A: -$150

B: -$15

And now subtract that from the total:

$345 - $150 = $195

$133.50 - $15 = $118.50 // getting closer! Off by $76.50!

Twice?:

$195 - $150 = $45! // profits are evaporating

$118.50 - $15 = $103.50! // Profits are holding steady



I've been looking at this for a couple hours now. It all makes sense up until:

"150 pips per trade at 1/10: $135 - $1.50 = $133.50"

This statement is assuming that you make 10 trades in a day, at $0.1 per pip, with a target of 150 pips for each trade, 90% win rate, 10% lose rate, stop loss is 15 pips.

What this math is really saying is that each trade makes 150 pips and that you do that 9 times out of 10 in a day. That's 1350 pips total for the day. This seems unlikely.

I have attached my Excel spreadsheet where you can play with the numbers. The numbers A1-A5, B1-B2, are just like in the examples from MightyOne and all input parameters are exactly the same as from MightyOne's A1-A5, B1-B2 so you can follow along.

I think it would be more correct if you put a "1" for number of trades for the last entry B2.

With the idea being:

Trade: Pip Profit:
1 -15
2 +18.4
3 +18.4
4 +18.4
5 +18.4
6 +18.4
7 +18.4
8 +18.4
9 +18.4
10 +18.4

Total 10 trades, total pips 150

Does this make sense to anyone else or did I miss something?
Attachments
MightyOne_Win-Loss Rate.xls
(20 KiB) Downloaded 81 times
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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sat May 28, 2011 6:32 am

The point is that a smaller size hurts less when you are losing and greater targets pay the same as smaller targets with high dollars at risk.

I tried showing an example of this by introducing the "macro pip" which is 10 pips treated as a single pip. I went on to show that, in a lot of examples, 3 or 4 macro pips could be risked for the same 5+ (macro) pips targeted by the Rat Trade.

Less risk, no sudden spikes, spreads are not as significant, fewer losses, & SAME PROFIT in dollars...but everyone wants sextillions ;)

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