ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:22 pm

prochargedmopar wrote:+709 atm

http://clip2net.com/s/QT62


You bring a tear to my eye son :cry:

Hitting the buy-buy-buy(!) button on the way up, you would make fistfulls of cash & that is exactly all I really do.

These small trades where you risk 2-5% and cringe with terror when the market moves 8 pips against you is just...well I'll leave it at that.

I hope you mix in more long term trades in the future and find much success PRO :shock: !

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Tue May 24, 2011 12:38 am

Hi,
:)
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Tue May 24, 2011 12:50 am

This trade is killing me, So little for holding so long.
The advice was to (buy-buy-buy) as it would have been a little more worth the margin. But hey, I have a target.

Image
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Tue May 24, 2011 3:05 am

It might not be 400% a day but at least it is money that you can bank on withdrawing.

Once you're done playing the market on the short periods you can start making that spending money ;)

Congrats for your ability to hold...

Best wishes PRO- M1

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Postby prochargedmopar » Thu May 26, 2011 10:52 pm

Reading Price Bar by stinking bar is FANTASTIC!!!!

"It is more important to follow your heart than to follow a glowstick." M.O.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby PebbleTrader » Fri May 27, 2011 11:32 pm

MightyOne wrote:
Let us say that you are used to trading 2 mini lots, but you suffered a massive draw down and are now trading 1 mini lot:

Which is more easy:

A. $1 per pip with a 15 SL & targeting 5+ pips

or

B. $0.10 per pip with a 15 SL targeting 150 pips w/ 10 attempts to do so?



A: 10 trades mostly losers (60%): -$90 in losses + :

A1: 5 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $20 in profit = -$70 total

A2: 10 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $40 in profit = -$50 total

A2: 20 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $80 in profit = -$10 total

A2: 40 pips per trade?: -$90 in losses + $160 in profit = $70 total
(aha! PROFIT!)

or

B: 10 trades mostly losers (60%): -$9 in losses + $60 in profit = $51 total

What if my win % were 90%?

A: 40 pips per trade: $360 in profit - $15 in losses = $345 total

B: 150 pips per trade at 1/10: $135 - $1.50 = $133.50

But lets compare maximum daily loss of 10 trades:

A: -$150

B: -$15

And now subtract that from the total:

$345 - $150 = $195

$133.50 - $15 = $118.50 // getting closer! Off by $76.50!

Twice?:

$195 - $150 = $45! // profits are evaporating

$118.50 - $15 = $103.50! // Profits are holding steady



I've been looking at this for a couple hours now. It all makes sense up until:

"150 pips per trade at 1/10: $135 - $1.50 = $133.50"

This statement is assuming that you make 10 trades in a day, at $0.1 per pip, with a target of 150 pips for each trade, 90% win rate, 10% lose rate, stop loss is 15 pips.

What this math is really saying is that each trade makes 150 pips and that you do that 9 times out of 10 in a day. That's 1350 pips total for the day. This seems unlikely.

I have attached my Excel spreadsheet where you can play with the numbers. The numbers A1-A5, B1-B2, are just like in the examples from MightyOne and all input parameters are exactly the same as from MightyOne's A1-A5, B1-B2 so you can follow along.

I think it would be more correct if you put a "1" for number of trades for the last entry B2.

With the idea being:

Trade: Pip Profit:
1 -15
2 +18.4
3 +18.4
4 +18.4
5 +18.4
6 +18.4
7 +18.4
8 +18.4
9 +18.4
10 +18.4

Total 10 trades, total pips 150

Does this make sense to anyone else or did I miss something?
Attachments
MightyOne_Win-Loss Rate.xls
(20 KiB) Downloaded 85 times
Life is just a journey

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sat May 28, 2011 6:32 am

The point is that a smaller size hurts less when you are losing and greater targets pay the same as smaller targets with high dollars at risk.

I tried showing an example of this by introducing the "macro pip" which is 10 pips treated as a single pip. I went on to show that, in a lot of examples, 3 or 4 macro pips could be risked for the same 5+ (macro) pips targeted by the Rat Trade.

Less risk, no sudden spikes, spreads are not as significant, fewer losses, & SAME PROFIT in dollars...but everyone wants sextillions ;)

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Postby PebbleTrader » Sat May 28, 2011 1:00 pm

Thank you MO for clarification.

I understood the point, it was just that it was not very realistic for me and wanted to make sure there wasn't an error in the example so as to make my brain struggle unnecessarily. :lol:

So now I must ask myself a simple question, "How do I make it realistic for me?"

Less risk, no sudden spikes, spreads are not as significant, fewer losses, & SAME PROFIT in dollars...but everyone wants sextillions.


I do not value sextillions. I have lived the "luxury lifestyle" (grew up in a wealthy family) and it only created more problems and unhappiness. I think it is much better to have millions, stay under the radar, have a simple place to stay and use your de-valued currency to have and do extraordinary life experiences of which many in this world cost very little. I'm not saying I won't aim for extremely high returns. If I make enough money to carry me for awhile and there is enough of a buffer to handle unexpected events than I will take time off and not trade. We might reach a point in our lives where we look backward and realize that we wasted a lot of precious time trying to make money unnecessarily. Whether you believe in life after death or not (your various religious/spiritual views), the one thing we can all be ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN about is THIS CURRENT LIFE. The future is not knowable thus the only thing we can be sure about is THIS VERY MOMENT. I'm just saying, make your moments matter!
Life is just a journey

aliassmith
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Postby aliassmith » Sat May 28, 2011 3:35 pm

MightyOne wrote:The point is that a smaller size hurts less when you are losing and greater targets pay the same as smaller targets with high dollars at risk.

I tried showing an example of this by introducing the "macro pip" which is 10 pips treated as a single pip. I went on to show that, in a lot of examples, 3 or 4 macro pips could be risked for the same 5+ (macro) pips targeted by the Rat Trade.

Less risk, no sudden spikes, spreads are not as significant, fewer losses, & SAME PROFIT in dollars...but everyone wants sextillions ;)


What the heck!

You said we are here to drain the banks.

If the banks have $extillions then we take $extillions :)
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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PebbleTrader
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Postby PebbleTrader » Sat May 28, 2011 4:14 pm

I'm just saying become AWARE of the amount of TIME and ENERGY it takes to make $extillions, it might be better to settle for less O:)
Life is just a journey

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