ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

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PTG
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Postby PTG » Fri Apr 02, 2010 1:57 pm

aliassmith wrote:
PTG wrote:I am short the EU from 1.3558. My first profit target has been reached and I have a free trade now with some profit already banked.

You don't TRY to pick tops, you just DO it.

Sometimes it fails, sometimes it doesn't.

When it fails, the investment lost is limited, or you might miss a trade by one pip.

When it doesn't, your profits can be gigantic depending on how you manage your trades.

What does this take ? You have to do what nobody else wants to do. You buy low and sell high. You go against the herd.

I love it.


Takes a lot of practice to pick tops/bottoms I try to get it down to a few
pips. Typically when people are selling I am buying and vice-versa.
Trying to get in right as the gas runs out and reverses.


There are numerous ways to skin a cat but that is the basic idea; when the herds start to sell we think hmm look for an opportunity to buy, we can get a good deal. Same for buying. Looking for extended range bars in the context of a higher timeframe trend helps a lot to find targets where prices have a high probability to turn around. It is like catching a knife knowing there's a table shortly below :shock:
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Postby PTG » Fri Apr 02, 2010 2:03 pm

prochargedmopar wrote:And yes, I do agree PTG, picking tops/bottoms keeps stops very small and the reward much higher, IF, a big IF you hold for profit.


If you find it hard to hold on to profit, consider taking off a part at a certain point, this will take away a lot of stress. Examples: take off one half of your position at 1:1 RRR or 2:1 RRR, you can combine it with moving your s/l to b/e or halving your stop which may not be very popular with some on this forum but if it helps you to stick to your trades and increase your overall winners:losers and overall RRR then why not do it. After all it is not about an individual to copy another, it is about finding your own way to trade and being consistently profitable.

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Postby razorboy » Fri Apr 02, 2010 2:50 pm

picking tops and bottoms is a fool's game for most traders (notice i said most, not all).........lots of fools out there though.
Currently sitting up about 1500/1600 pips across 5 positions in the U/J based on daily IB's. Account is up about 50% since Nov when I started trading based on LT trends............
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Postby MightyOne » Fri Apr 02, 2010 4:54 pm

razorboy wrote:picking tops and bottoms is a fool's game for most traders (notice i said most, not all).........lots of fools out there though.
Currently sitting up about 1500/1600 pips across 5 positions in the U/J based on daily IB's. Account is up about 50% since Nov when I started trading based on LT trends............


There is only going to be 1 highest high so there are going to be several higher highs; don't hate it, use it.

You do not need to pick tops and bottoms you just need to trade off of long term extremes so that you are in position to hold a position.

50% is a respectable return (most people would fall at your feet in worship) and I salute you Razorboy.

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Postby razorboy » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:28 pm

I trade two long term system on two separate accounts - IB' on a daily chart - two pairs only - g/u and U/J and something called first strike plus (i picked it up here....http://infiniteyieldforex.blogspot.com/) IB account is up 50% since start ( haven't really had too much draw down, but I do know what it is like to have multiple stop outs in a row). First strike account is down about 30% in the past 6 months (it plays 5 pairs and all pairs correlate back to the USD) , but since any given week can add on about 10% of equity (put two or three of these in a row, which isnt too hard to imagine after suffering 12 to 15 bad weeks in a row) and you are back to even. Profit taking on the first strike account is based on time (I close all trades @ 1 am est Monday Morning)

Long term trading has really taught me the value of holding, adding to positions, suffering though drawdown and exploiting statistical edges. As I have started day trading equities for the past 4 months thru direct market access, it is the ability to hold a profitable trade (sometimes I over hold) that has kept me out of severe psychological distress during the learning process. Without the discipline that long term trading requires for success, the chance of being a successful short term trader is close to nil as you will never be able to hold your trades properly

So where am I going with this..........Pro, pick one pair, pick one approach and learn how to hold it. Or if you want to cheat, just do a back on daily bars. It will eventually hit you in the face like a ton of bricks.........all you have to do is double an account every year (some years could be flat, some times could be 3 to 4x returns)........its easier, cheaper and way less labor intensive than doing something silly like buying small apartment buildings and waiting for the mortgage to be paid off by the rents........plus its all cash


MightyOne wrote:
razorboy wrote:picking tops and bottoms is a fool's game for most traders (notice i said most, not all).........lots of fools out there though.
Currently sitting up about 1500/1600 pips across 5 positions in the U/J based on daily IB's. Account is up about 50% since Nov when I started trading based on LT trends............


There is only going to be 1 highest high so there are going to be several higher highs; don't hate it, use it.

You do not need to pick tops and bottoms you just need to trade off of long term extremes so that you are in position to hold a position.

50% is a respectable return (most people would fall at your feet in worship) and I salute you Razorboy.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



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Postby prochargedmopar » Sun Apr 04, 2010 12:02 am

Austin, Tx

Image
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Postby razorboy » Sun Apr 04, 2010 12:50 am

Pro,

there is a difference between not retreating/surrendering and deciding to stop eating sh*t for the taste of it. Trust me, I've been in your shoes as recently as last year.

Once you understand that the big money is made in playing longer term trends, the picture will become clear to you. The average (yes, the average) trader cannot make that much, if any, money day trading (for a variety of reasons). The big funds can only make money in the long term because they have so much capital to deploy the have to do it in a systematically discrete way that does not move the market against them when they enter.

At the end of 2008, I actually flipped out. For the life of me I could not figure out why I could not successfully day trade FX. Then I did about 6 months of number crunching and research and realized I didn't have to drive myself crazy daytrading (yes, I day trade equities now, but it is somewhat of a different beast, plus I have direct market access, but most importantly, I have the discipline imposed upon me by learning how to trade long term and a good understanding of statistical edges) as I would make a boatload of cash in the long run as a trend trader. This realization wasn't retreat or surrender.............it was the realization that I was fighting the wrong fight. In the last 6 months, I have made more (many many times more) net pips than I did in 12 months prior, all because I changed my focus. It has also had a huge impact on my psychologically as I no longer have any stress when putting on a trade. My wife and dog are no longer scared of my fits of insanity brought on by the feelings failure. And most importantly, I am not keeping silly hours to play the FX market (well, not totally silly - I still get up Monday @ 1 am to put on my weekly trades)


Abraham Lincoln may have said "Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle", but one has to really define waiting and hustling when it comes to trading........

Get successful at trading one method (IB's are stupidly simple) and you will start to notice the other opportunities that are open to you. If you doubt me, ask MO about his longest trade............
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



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Postby prochargedmopar » Sun Apr 04, 2010 2:28 am

razorboy wrote:Pro,

there is a difference between not retreating/surrendering and deciding to stop eating sh*t for the taste of it. Trust me, I've been in your shoes as recently as last year.

Once you understand that the big money is made in playing longer term trends, the picture will become clear to you. The average (yes, the average) trader cannot make that much, if any, money day trading (for a variety of reasons). The big funds can only make money in the long term because they have so much capital to deploy the have to do it in a systematically discrete way that does not move the market against them when they enter.

At the end of 2008, I actually flipped out. For the life of me I could not figure out why I could not successfully day trade FX. Then I did about 6 months of number crunching and research and realized I didn't have to drive myself crazy daytrading (yes, I day trade equities now, but it is somewhat of a different beast, plus I have direct market access, but most importantly, I have the discipline imposed upon me by learning how to trade long term and a good understanding of statistical edges) as I would make a boatload of cash in the long run as a trend trader. This realization wasn't retreat or surrender.............it was the realization that I was fighting the wrong fight. In the last 6 months, I have made more (many many times more) net pips than I did in 12 months prior, all because I changed my focus. It has also had a huge impact on my psychologically as I no longer have any stress when putting on a trade. My wife and dog are no longer scared of my fits of insanity brought on by the feelings failure. And most importantly, I am not keeping silly hours to play the FX market (well, not totally silly - I still get up Monday @ 1 am to put on my weekly trades)


Abraham Lincoln may have said "Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle", but one has to really define waiting and hustling when it comes to trading........

Get successful at trading one method (IB's are stupidly simple) and you will start to notice the other opportunities that are open to you. If you doubt me, ask MO about his longest trade............


I understand the markets.
I understand (most) of what has kept me from succeeding.
I understand building positions in the market is where it's at.
I understand I have underachieved with what I see and know.
I understand. Even what you are preaching.
I understand how deeply you feel and KNOW what you say is True.

I'm slowly working on taking baby steps to what must be achieved for me to succeed.

Success for me will be when I'm able to apply EVERYTHING that I understand about the market through execution of MY plan.

It doesn't matter if I have $5mil in my account or $5.

I will say a big step for me will be when I've taken 10 trades in one direction, pulled out 80% profit on each entry and have a 1000 pip stop on the remaining positions and would still be B/E if it were to get hit.
Counter trend scalping(hedging) will be icing on the cake.

I have a plan, it's just a matter of psychologically allowing it to be and then following it.
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Postby prochargedmopar » Sun Apr 04, 2010 2:36 am

To be successful trading in any market one must consider the following:

1. A thorough understanding of this market and what drives price
2. You must develop and maintain the integrity of your psychological profile
3. You must become an "Independent Thinker"
4. You must be absolutely clear in your trading plan and know exactly what defines your decisions and why, from the beginning to the end of a position
5. Firm and disciplined equity management protocol tailored to your method(The ONLY thing that must have defined and explicit unbreakable rules...pro addition)
6. Don't think you know what's going to happen next
7. Think in terms of probabilities, not affirmatives

Go back and read "Face the Trader Within" again!

http://www.chrislori.com/memberzone/fre ... islori.pdf
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby razorboy » Sun Apr 04, 2010 11:13 am

I'd argue that you have to know your trading plan is actually valid to begin with. To follow a trading plan for the sake following a trading plan is like following a map with no destination in mind.......

you are making things way too complicated for yourself.

I'll shut up now
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