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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:43 pm

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE

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Postby Brookmyre » Wed Oct 14, 2009 2:12 am

es/pip wrote:
Brookmyre wrote:Thanks for that list of definitions MO. I have most of that pasted into my MO file but theres a couple of additions there I haven't seen before that are certainly helpful. I still have a lot of trouble with momentum though, as it's all relative to whats gone before.

I would like to ask you and es/pip....once you have made your analysis on a higher tf, found your entry from a lower tf....where do you manage your trades from?


i do it a little different

but i will either do 1 of two things

1. i will watch the m5 until it starts to go my way and then watch it on the time frame that the trade came from

2. i will watch it on the m5 and trade in and out of it on the way to the base decisions target.

if i feel real strong about the trade i tend to just watch it on the higher time frame.

but sometimes trading it on the way to the target you can make 150 pips on a 100 pip move--


Thanks es/pip...I had been waiting for it to go my way in the m5 and then dialing up and down between the m5 and the peg chart (and everything in between), I find it's harder to watch each tick go against me in the smaller time frames.......

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Postby bakaender » Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:03 am

es/pip wrote:anyone get on that train

that was a gift from the banks :roll:



Image


Was in that one as well, I chickened out and only took 25 even though I knew where it was going. Just have to work on trusting myself more at this point, the technical part is easy if your willing to just wait for the perfect setup.

Definitely the best trade I've taken so far, based on the setup being right and waiting for the entry. I sat watching for 4 hours figuring it was coming, really eye opening to me. I realize if I just wait that 1 trade will come and is more then I need in a week, not that there aren't so many others.

Patience has certainly been the biggest factor holding me back.

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Postby frang0nve » Wed Oct 14, 2009 5:41 am

PTG wrote:
es/pip wrote:anyone get on that train

that was a gift from the banks :roll:



me choochoo too :shock:

This, imho, is a very clear example of a Dragon-trade based on
1) a stop-and-reverse on H4 (that is to say on Alpari server time..)
2) after the H4 reverse candle closed, switching back to H1 -> M5, the beauty is right before your eyes, ready to be undressed etc. etc. :wink:

Almost makes you blind, sooo nice.. :D


Hello PTG,

Can you post the H4 chart mentioned?

That will help me to see... I hope

Cheers

Francisco

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Postby PTG » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:46 am

frang0nve wrote:
PTG wrote:
es/pip wrote:anyone get on that train

that was a gift from the banks :roll:



me choochoo too :shock:

This, imho, is a very clear example of a Dragon-trade based on
1) a stop-and-reverse on H4 (that is to say on Alpari server time..)
2) after the H4 reverse candle closed, switching back to H1 -> M5, the beauty is right before your eyes, ready to be undressed etc. etc. :wink:

Almost makes you blind, sooo nice.. :D


Hello PTG,

Can you post the H4 chart mentioned?

That will help me to see... I hope

Cheers

Francisco


Sure, here goes:

Image

Image

Image

All it takes is patience for the H4 to stop and reverse !

Once you're in a trade, target the next H1 MZ whilst monitoring the price action, then take profit and re-enter in the same direction at a better price.

In the case shown I would only trade LONG until the next H4 reversal, only then reconsider trading direction. Has something to do with rats, monkeys and parrots :shock:

Hope this helps !
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Postby dragon33 » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:46 am

I don't know for you guys but i'm still in this trade.
This is my first trade based on a weekly chart. I would like to do what mo is doing and start thinking by myself why don't i look higher tmf's.

This is the beautifull of it. First trade smaller lotsize. I used $20/pip and i'm up for 250 pips while i'm writing this. No matter what of which tmf you use it keeps paying of

:P

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Postby PTG » Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:09 am

dragon33 wrote:I don't know for you guys but i'm still in this trade.
This is my first trade based on a weekly chart. I would like to do what mo is doing and start thinking by myself why don't i look higher tmf's.

This is the beautifull of it. First trade smaller lotsize. I used $20/pip and i'm up for 250 pips while i'm writing this. No matter what of which tmf you use it keeps paying of

:P


Weekly - hmmm :smt027
Looks like a stop and reverse is in the make right now.
Switch back to D1, do some drawing and find your entry I suspect :smt025
on it's way to the 1.66 area ?
nah - can't be that simple, can it ? :shock:
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Postby dragon33 » Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:28 am

Well, I will try to explain how i see things on the weekly chart. I will do it here so everybody can benefit from. Lets make real Dolar_Smile
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Postby Braathen » Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:38 am

Nice pippin' dragon.. u rock man ;)

Anyway i tried shorting it today without any luck.. lucky i bagged my 10 pips at the right time!

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Postby dragon33 » Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:21 am

Braathen wrote:Nice pippin' dragon.. u rock man ;)

Anyway i tried shorting it today without any luck.. lucky i bagged my 10 pips at the right time!

Image


This is a common mistake i see constantly on this board. People trying to short when there are no shorts yet.
No offending but where is the first momo you need to make your decision on?
It is like PTG told in a previous post. Only think short when you are under a mightyzone untill you reach the next and vice versa. When you all can handle that then you can scalping the shorts in the longs. After all it is nice to grab 10 pip here and there but you will see when you do that the most mistakes are coming from the shorts in the longs because of greed. Everybody wants those pips now you need to learn take profit when there is especially if you are trading against those momo bars.

Nice trading for those ten pips
:P
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