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TheRumpledOne
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Re: My Lesson Learned

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:07 pm

Al Mo wrote:Greetings TRO,


I would say the biggest differences to date for me are:

1) Keeping my expectations reasonable - 5 - 13 pips max.

2) proper use of money management (this is something I have yet to truly master....work in progress). Right now all my demo trades are 0.1 lots, and I deliberately open the demo accounts with 500 bux to prevent myself from being able to 'overtrade' my way back into profitability. This alone, forced me to learn how to pick better entries.

3). And lastly, what I am including in this pic.



1) Expectations? Take what you can.

2) Use 0.2 lots so you can learn to exit part of the trade with a quick profit. Move your stop up to breakeven OR use a trailing stop to capture more of the move.

3) Don't you have the pictures reversed? Aren't you learning how to SEE the support resistance on a blank chart?

Thanks for sharing.
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Postby BlowFish » Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:20 pm

razorboy wrote:Duh........you are right, all you need are trailing MA's.......i've gotten so used to not looking at them



I think its another thing you will just see when you start to really look. If you are on a 5 min chart you just have to ask yourself are we trading lower than we where a dozen bars ago? I don't want to be the guy that got you to put a squiggly line back on your chart!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:20 pm

RULES OF THUMB

Image

Based on statistics we know that a reversal is likely after 3 or more same colored bars in a row. And we know that if we have green/red or red/green the next bar is NOT the best entry statistically.

So the rule of thumb for reversal trades is:

ONLY ENTER REVERSAL TRADES ON BAR 4 OR MORE OF A RUN

The rule of thumb for breaks is:


ONLY ENTER BREAK TRADES ON BAR 2 WHEN IT'S AT THE HIGHEST HIGH OR LOWEST LOW OF THE PREVIOUS 3 BARS


Of course, ALWAYS REMEMBER the PRIMARY RULE OF THUMB:


ALWAYS TRADE WITH THE H1 CANDLE COLOR.


Following these rules will keep you of some trades, especially the unprofitable ones.

Remember, you do NOT need indicators to trade, just USE YOUR EYES.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:33 pm

WAY TOO COMPLICATED

WAY TOO COMPLICATED
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:37 pm

BACKTESTING GUIDE

You know how I feel about backtesting.
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Postby Sweet Pip » Sat Nov 01, 2008 7:31 pm

Phew, finally, Halloween is over....

Actually I really enjoy it.... contests, dressing up, pumpkin carving, yard decorations...ya we really get into it around here...LOL.... 150+ kids

So with all the prep work for that this week, I didn't quite get to double my account again this week...but I did manage to increase it anyways. ..+462 pips

I still need to work on my lot sizes and the scaling out in profit part. I planned to up it to 0.2 lots, but for some reason or another, I didn't until midway thru the week. When I did, I accidently put 0.02 lots on a really good trade...arrgh... then got it right on the next one(s).

I may not have a lot of time over the next couple of weeks with getting ready to go to Mexico next Sunday, and then once I'm there for the week. The hotel does have internet, and I am taking my laptop, but we're going for a wedding, so if you don't hear from me much for next little while, that'll be why.

Right now, got some catching up do to on everyone posts this weekend...good going everyone!

:)

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 7:39 pm

You're going to Mexico without me?!?!?!?!
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Postby razorboy » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:07 pm

Just to be crystal clear, in this picture, bar 2 would be the last red bar that "should" push down......correct?

TheRumpledOne wrote:
razorboy wrote:Much thanks.........was never good in school. I also suspect that if you want to "catch" more of these big moves, set the look back period for the dynamic fib lines shorter - say 5 to 8 periods and you will be able to play the big moves with more safety.

Pretending that H1 is green and you are going long

For example, lets assume that you go with the H1 color and beyond 3 same colored candles, you will pull one that goes against you, and probably two. These one or two will take you down to a possible support fib level and you can buy back in on the next green, without having to ride those two reds down, possibly wiping out a chunk of , if not all your profit

any thoughts? Am I off base or on target. I have found that using 21 period look backs, I do a lot of sitting around, I tighten them up and i get more trades and less moves against me if I attempt to ride a long trend


Image

Using a 3 period "look back", you will see the breakouts BECAUSE, we know from STATISTICS that 2 and 3 bars of the same color in a row is a likely occurrence where 4 or more in a row are less likely.

If bar 2 is pushing against support/resistance, then it is likely to continue moving in that direction.

UNDERSTAND?

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Sweet Pip
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Postby Sweet Pip » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:07 pm

LOL...well you're in my laptop so in a sense you'll be there...LOL

I'll see about posting a pic or 2 from there ..:)

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:48 am

razorboy wrote:Just to be crystal clear, in this picture, bar 2 would be the last red bar that "should" push down......correct?


Yes. The last red bar is the second bar of 2 red bars in a row, so it's bar 2.
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